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applegrove

(118,734 posts)
Mon Jan 16, 2012, 01:23 AM Jan 2012

Syria can be reached from Iran by going through northern Iraq.

I'm wondering if the reason we don't see a Western responce to the horrid situation in Syria is because the west wants a civil war in Syria that could spill over into Iran. Can you not just see a civil war in Syria with Iraq supporting the rebels and Iran supporting Assad?

Edited to add: apparently Iraq is supporting Assad. Well blow me down with a feather. I'm totally wrong. But not about the part where the USA hopes that a civil war breaks out in Iran some day.

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Syria can be reached from Iran by going through northern Iraq. (Original Post) applegrove Jan 2012 OP
Nope - Iraq is already supporting Syria. tabatha Jan 2012 #1
I did not know that. Iraq is supporting Syria. Who would have thought? applegrove Jan 2012 #7
Iraq, siding with Iran, sends essential aid to Syria’s Assad tabatha Jan 2012 #2
Okay. I'm wrong. applegrove Jan 2012 #8
And the "Shi'ia Crescent" begins to take shape. bemildred Jan 2012 #17
As pointed out, Iraq supports Syria. David__77 Jan 2012 #3
Then the USA really did lose the war in Iraq didn't they? applegrove Jan 2012 #9
That thing is so purely sectarian, it's disgusting. Fool Count Jan 2012 #13
No, that is not really it nadinbrzezinski Jan 2012 #4
You mean in Syria. The USA certainly would like a civil war in Iran. I stand by that assertion. applegrove Jan 2012 #10
I mean in Syria nadinbrzezinski Jan 2012 #14
Cough... Mountains JCMach1 Jan 2012 #5
Mountains full of Kurds bhikkhu Jan 2012 #12
Correct. ellisonz Jan 2012 #18
You'd think so, but... jberryhill Jan 2012 #6
I am so shocked Iraq is supporting Syria I tell you. I just assumed they would be for applegrove Jan 2012 #11
Of course they oppose intervention in Syria. David__77 Jan 2012 #15
Remember a lot of the Ba'ath party elite fled baghdad to Damascus nadinbrzezinski Jan 2012 #16
I hope that a civil uprising happens in Iran as well. AverageJoe90 Jan 2012 #19

tabatha

(18,795 posts)
1. Nope - Iraq is already supporting Syria.
Mon Jan 16, 2012, 01:49 AM
Jan 2012

Also, Russia and China will not abstain in a UN vote for Syria as they did for Libya.

Also number two, a non-military option with the Arab League monitors was tried in the hope of a better way.

tabatha

(18,795 posts)
2. Iraq, siding with Iran, sends essential aid to Syria’s Assad
Mon Jan 16, 2012, 01:51 AM
Jan 2012

More than six months after the start of the Syrian uprising, Iraq is offering key moral and financial support to the country’s embattled president, undermining a central U.S. policy objective and raising fresh concerns that Iraq is drifting further into the orbit of an American arch rival — Iran.

Iraq’s stance has dealt an embarrassing setback to the Obama administration, which has sought to enlist Muslim allies in its campaign to isolate Syrian autocrat Bashar al-Assad. While other Arab states have downgraded ties with Assad, Iraq has moved in the opposite direction, hosting official visits by Syrians, signing pacts to expand business ties and offering political support.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/iraq-siding-with-iran-sends-lifeline-to-assad/2011/10/06/gIQAFEAIWL_story.html

 

Fool Count

(1,230 posts)
13. That thing is so purely sectarian, it's disgusting.
Mon Jan 16, 2012, 02:24 AM
Jan 2012

Both Iran and Iraq are majority shiite, while Syrian uprising is almost exclusively sunni.
Turkey, Qatar and other Arab League interventionists are all sunni too. So there you go -
that's your complete explanations of positions those countries take vis-a-vie Syrian events.
The only other factor beside sectarianism is how friendly/hostile Assad regime is to US-Israel/
Russia/China. So that's your explanation for positions of those countries. All the crap about
"peaceful pro-democracy protesters set upon by ruthless dictatorship" is just one-sided propaganda
directed at fixing the truth around the policy, you know, the usual stuff.

 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
4. No, that is not really it
Mon Jan 16, 2012, 01:57 AM
Jan 2012

nobody wants a civil war that could potentially lead to 1 million plus refugees and a potential regional war.

 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
14. I mean in Syria
Mon Jan 16, 2012, 02:27 AM
Jan 2012

A civil war in Syria would lead to a flow of refugees to Lebanon, Turkey, Jordan and possibly Israel through the highly militarized and MINED Golan Heights. Worst case scenario this could lead to a regional war. (Ok there is an even worst case, but hey)

Let me offer you some datapoints

1.- The Iranians do have access to a port in Latakia, that they are using to bring support in. That means through Suez.

2.- The Turks closed the overland route that went though their own territory that was used by the Iranians to ship logistics to Syria. Until six months ago Turkey and Syria were strong allies.

3.- During the Iraq war where do you think a lot of the freedom fighters came from? Syria. So as you suggest that border has been a tad porous but it did not start now. It's been porous for a few years... oh and there was a US Raid (Special Forces) into Syria back in '07 if memory serves... way too tired to look it up right now.

4.- Then there is the connection to Hizobollah and another internal jihadist group. Hizbollah is an ally of Iran.

5.- The Russians have access to the northern port of Tartus, they have access to three piers, one is functional. Yes, the Russians have brought what could be measured as a light battlegroup... and we have a battle group in the Eastern Med.

We have been doing way too much research into this crap for a story... but those are the important datapoints.

Hell, will be nice, highly technical paper and I mean this HIGHLY TECHNICAL, but this policy paper if you want to go through it, will catch you nicely.

http://www.henryjacksonsociety.org/cms/harriercollectionitems/SyriaIntervention.pdf

Suffice it to say, yes they are considering it... just not easy. Oh and all those datapoints are not necessarily in there, but that is the most comprehensive of the reams of data we got on this.

JCMach1

(27,562 posts)
5. Cough... Mountains
Mon Jan 16, 2012, 02:04 AM
Jan 2012

Just fly over those areas and you will know what I mean...

Iran is already supporting Assad... Iraq isn't in a position to support anyone... However, Saudi money is firmly against Assad.

bhikkhu

(10,720 posts)
12. Mountains full of Kurds
Mon Jan 16, 2012, 02:20 AM
Jan 2012

...who don't put up with that sort of nonsense. I suppose that could easily just make things more complex, but as you say - geography is against the spread of a civil war, and there's more than just mountains between Iran and Syria.

 

jberryhill

(62,444 posts)
6. You'd think so, but...
Mon Jan 16, 2012, 02:05 AM
Jan 2012

...that lady inside the Garmin has the roads all messed up on that route, and she keeps saying "recalculating" and sending you around in circles.

applegrove

(118,734 posts)
11. I am so shocked Iraq is supporting Syria I tell you. I just assumed they would be for
Mon Jan 16, 2012, 02:17 AM
Jan 2012

freedom. I guess the government in Iraq has developed a relationship with Assad.

David__77

(23,434 posts)
15. Of course they oppose intervention in Syria.
Mon Jan 16, 2012, 02:45 AM
Jan 2012

Saddam Hussein was strongly anti-Assad, but the post-Baathist Iraqi government has always been very friendly with Syria.

 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
16. Remember a lot of the Ba'ath party elite fled baghdad to Damascus
Mon Jan 16, 2012, 02:49 AM
Jan 2012

they still live there, and are probably packing to flee. Last thing they want to do is find themselves on their way back to Baghdad.

Also a lot of refugees fled to the Syrian side of the border during the war, and strained the fairly decent, until sanctions, Syrian safety net. So it is not that black and white. There are factions in baghdad that support Syria.. there are factions that do not. Still, even if Baghdad truly wanted to completely seal the border, well good luck with that.

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