General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsBarack Obama won Florida . Could Biden do it ?
This November, there will be an abortion measure on the ballot in Florida. This will very likely motivate a lot more people to vote and hopefully to vote Democrat from top to bottom of ticket.
For the senate, polls are saying Rick Scott is still ahead of Debbie Mucarsel-Powel but I am not sure these polls properly capture the effect of having abortion on the ballot.
Likewise, Trump is polling ahead of BIden but there are still lots of undecided who could make the difference after a few more months of Trump trials and general jackasserie.
It might be a long shot but if Biden won it , it would all but close any possibility of Trump making it to 270.
sop
(10,284 posts)It can only help Democrats.
Funtatlaguy
(10,893 posts)Celerity
(43,683 posts)the entire group. Spanish speakers and Brasilan Portuguese speakers combined voted in pretty large majorities for DeathSentence and the Rethugs. So many of the Central American and South American wealthy (or at least middle class bourgeoisie) have moved into Florida, and they ofttimes (as so many were RW POS back in the origin country, or their parents or grandparents were) buy into the 'the Dems are all commies' shit just like the Cubanos do. The same for their love for anti LGBTQ movements and their misogynistic stances.
Plus millions of retiring christofash white power northern MAGAts have, are, and will be flowing into the FL fever swamps.
I do not see FL going Blue, same for TX, which every cycle some here claim is surely going Blue as well this time.
Data on the Cuban FL percentages
Florida
https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/FL/PST045223#qf-headnote-b
FLPopulation estimates, July 1, 2023, (V2023) 22,610,726
Hispanic or Latino, percent(b) 27.1% (6,127,507)
Cubans make up 25.4 % of those 6,127,507 FL Latinos
Freethinker65
(10,090 posts)brooklynite
(94,911 posts)https://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/politics/2024/04/11/florida-democrats-seek-to-close-voter-registration-gap-with-gop/73280565007/
The Biden campaign says they'll compete iin Florida but its still a long shot.
sop
(10,284 posts)RandiFan1290
(6,260 posts)It is disgusting and they assume everyone here loves him too.
mcar
(42,439 posts)With abortion and pot on the ballot, Democrats and young people might come out to vote.
Let's also remember that Sen Voldemort won by less than 1% last time and we have a good competitor in Debbie Murcarsel-Powell. Plus, Nikki Fried is doing a great job revitalizing the Florida Democratic Party.
It all comes down to turnout.
mopinko
(70,301 posts)i have hope.
DeathSentence won big in '22, in large part because Dems and young people just didn't vote. The #s are staggering.
Raftergirl
(1,294 posts)Florida is too far down the rabbit hole. They believe they are living in Utopia.
Johnny2X2X
(19,253 posts)Biden got 47.9% in 2020 to 51.2% for Trump.
Abortion is going to be a game changer. Its in the ballot.
In It to Win It
(8,303 posts)Things have changed since 2020. A lot more Republicans live here now than they did in 2020.
DeSantis got 4 million votes in 2018. He got 4.6 million votes in 2022. Thats a huge difference in turnout, and Dobbs was still fresh.
Polybius
(15,518 posts)But not for the better. It's even more right-wing now. Here's a poll, and Biden is down by 10. His approval is just 36%.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/florida/trump-vs-biden
In It to Win It
(8,303 posts)But I dont think he can win.
4 years ago, I would have said he had a chance. Too many Republicans have moved here since 2020.
anamnua
(1,130 posts)Last edited Sat Apr 13, 2024, 01:24 PM - Edit history (1)
the repubs elsewhere😀
In It to Win It
(8,303 posts)Id take the hit if more Republicans from Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Georgia want to move to Florida.
Demsrule86
(68,768 posts)Florida Republicans at all levels should be shaking in their jackboots. Also, the Governor has terrible approval ratings.
Polybius
(15,518 posts)Biden's is 36% in Florida.
Among Biden voters, 32% support him because they dislike Trump, 24% because they like Biden, 19% care about an issue, and 14% support their partys candidate.
Among Trump voters, 31% support him because they care about an issue, 28% because they like Trump, 16% because they dislike Biden, and 14% support their partys candidate.
President Biden holds 36% job approval among Florida voters and 54% job disapproval. Governor Ron DeSantis has a 47% job approval and 42% disapproval rating.
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/florida-2024-poll-plurality-plan-to-vote-yes-on-abortion-protection-ballot-measure/
Demsrule86
(68,768 posts)cost the states enormous amounts of money, and signed a 15 week abortion ban.
Polybius
(15,518 posts)Here's a brand new one from two days ago:
https://www.fau.edu/newsdesk/articles/april2024flapoll
Biden's approval in Florida stands at 36% in Florida.
Demsrule86
(68,768 posts)ETC we can win...the electoral college and the senate seat...Rick Scott' seat.
womanofthehills
(8,801 posts)Average of last 10 Florida polls - https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/florida
Biden. 40
Trump. 49.3
When you add Independents
Biden. 38
Trump. 48
Kennedy 6.3
West. 1
Stein. .05
Plus other - 5 to 8 %
Seasider
(169 posts)Like Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach. Trump unfortunately brought out a bunch of voters in the panhandle which helped him in 2016 and 2020. If I was Biden I would send Obama to campaign there heavily if he hasnt already.
LiberalFighter
(51,263 posts)If the grass roots is active, President Biden will very likely carry Florida.
Mark.b2
(261 posts)One, people there don't come across as terribly politically aware nor engaged. Two, if they are, they like DeSantis.
Yes, yes, there are exceptions.
I'm just speaking as someone who is there lots, in all parts of the state, and who listens to folks.
YMMV
Prairie Gates
(1,086 posts)other day.
What's in it for him to say that? He mentioned NC, too. I think he let something slip there about what they're seeing.
Who knows. I'll just say I put little stock in polls posted by people who only ever post Republican friendly polls.....
elocs
(22,632 posts)Because "vote Democrat" or the "Democrat party" is what ignorant Republicans do.