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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsConsider: Israel has reason to destroy Iranian Drone Factories...
Iran provides Russia with drones. One of Russia's drone factories was blasted a week or so ago.
Russia still needs drones, and they are consuming them at a high rate, have turned to using them in large waves to try to overwhelm Ukraine's air defenses. Russia needs lots of drones. Iran provides them. And Israel now attacked by Iranian drones, has good reason to destroy Iran's drone industry.
The drone attacks on Israel will FORCE Israeli retaliation on Iran. That's just a given considering how Israel's population must feel. And what better for "our interests" than an Israeli attack on Iranian Drone production? We get a very willing proxy to do something our other ally, Ukraine -fighting to save Europe from Russia's pseudo-czar- really would benefit from having happen.
The US wouldn't need to strictly "participate". Biden wouldn't have to lie. Sure we might provide some targeting data, maybe access to secure GPS. But, our closest ally in the region, perhaps in the world, has the means to deliver such an attack without US weapons being involved. Biden clearly doesn't want to invite attacks on our assets, here or abroad, and an Israeli attack would give the US plausible deniability of having been part of the plot. That deniability is so desirable it borders on being PERFECT cover.
Probably take a week to 10 days to 'suss' out all the details.
I'll be watching to see the outcome.
walkingman
(7,749 posts)Model35mech
(1,635 posts)And when that window of opportunity closes, US strategists want to be better positioned than when that window opened.
walkingman
(7,749 posts)played a major roll in the shift of US policy.
Edited to add - the restriction of aid to the point of starvation also was a factor.
Model35mech
(1,635 posts)when he attacked the site in Syria and killed the Iranian military leaders.
Shifting US policy could only happen when Netanyahu's terrible over-reach in Gaza happened because of American's response.
But. The US policy-makers are struggling to keep Israel an ally, even it Netanyahu is on errands we (the American people mostly) disapprove of, and so does the Administration (publicly, at least).
One of the things about policy-making is that crises often generate the Overton Windows of opportunity. I think this has more collateral upside for democracy, and European security than anything the invasion of Iraq by president Cheney had going for it.
PCIntern
(25,705 posts)to be mad or anything at them. Perhaps a sternly-worded letter might do?
250 killer drones shot at them and no response? What would happen here if that happened to Seattle from Canada? Oh yes
I know. Wed be upset but forgiving
.
Model35mech
(1,635 posts)Fair because it struck Iran's capability to continue doing this, and proportional because it would be pretty highly targeted.
IMO, the entire western world believes Israel WILL retaliate against Iran. And that part of the world is also praying that the retaliation will be limited and proportionate.
madaboutharry
(40,252 posts)Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari announced over 350 killer drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles were launched at Israel in the attack from Iran. The attack was meant to kill Israelis and cause massive damage.
Iran fired 110 ballistic missiles last night. A single ballistic missiles with an average payload of explosives can kill over 130,000 people.
ripcord
(5,553 posts)Cha
(298,393 posts)World Democracy!
Something those excusing Iran haven't considered.
Mahalo Model35mech
Lancero
(3,028 posts)I suspect that the wider benefits to their destruction have been more than considered, and are in fact the main reason why they don't want Israel to retaliate.
Model35mech
(1,635 posts)What is said and done publicly often isn't everything that is said and done.
Emrys
(7,304 posts)See here:
Visible Progress at Russias Shahed Drone Production Site Satellite Imagery Update and Call for Action (November 13, 2023) - https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/visible-progress-at-russias-shahed-drone-production-site
Electronics in the Shahed-136 Kamikaze Drone (November 14, 2023) - https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/electronics-in-the-shahed-136-kamikaze-drone
$375,000 - The Sticker Price For An Iranian Shahed Drone (February 7, 2024) - https://www.forbes.com/sites/erictegler/2024/02/07/375000the-sticker-price-for-an-iranian-shahed-drone/
Gold for Drones: Massive Leak Reveals the Iranian Shahed Project in Russia (February 21, 2024) - https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/security-aviation/2024-02-21/ty-article-magazine/gold-for-drones-massive-leak-reveals-the-iranian-shahed-project-in-russia/0000018d-bb85-dd5e-a59d-ffb729890000
Russia unveils Shahed drone production line for the first time (March 5, 2024) - https://defence-blog.com/russia-unveils-shahed-drone-production-line-for-the-first-time/
However, at the beginning of this month Ukraine carried out a drone strike on Russia's Yelabuga drone production facility:
How Ukraine hit a Russian drone factory 1,300 kilometers away (April 3, 2024) - https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-launches-long-range-attacks-on-russia-setting-shahed-type-drone-factory-as-a-target/
There are doubts about how effective the strike was, with the Russians predictably claiming "no serious damage and the technological process of the enterprises was not disrupted", and the Ukrainians claiming "significant destruction of production facilities". Russian complaints that a number of civilian students had been killed or injured in the attack highlighted Russia's use of forced juvenile labour to produce the drones, which had first been revealed in August last year:
A Russian Factory Is Using Underage Workers To Assemble Iranian 'Suicide' Drones Destined For Ukraine (August 12, 2023) - https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-iran-suicide-drones-assembled-underage-students-ukraine/32545386.html
Lunabell
(6,152 posts)It's a pseudo-military target where hopefully no children work and helps Ukraine. But, I just wish somebody, anybody would just say Stop. Enough of this madness.
The Palestinians have a right to their own little slice of the pie, too. Their own state.
Kennah
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