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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsThe Fiscal Cliff Is a Lie
The Fiscal Cliff Is a LieBy Michael Lind
Salon
The need for a grand bargain involving taxes and entitlements in the next few years, if not immediately has moved to the center of discussion in Washington. But its the wrong grand bargain and a very bad deal for Middle America.
According to the conventional wisdom, any grand bargain should be modeled on plans like the Bowles-Simpson plan or the Rivlin-Domenici plan financing lower tax rates on the rich by closing tax loopholes and cutting Social Security and Medicare. In the aftermath of an election in which the candidates of the rich were trounced at the polls, Americas plutocratic conservatives might be satisfied with merely maintaining existing low tax rates on the rich, while capping loopholes and cutting Social Security and Medicare.
This entire approach should be rejected. It is based on two fallacies first, that the existing low (or lower) personal income tax rates on the rich promote growth, and second, that America cant afford Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid in the decades to come. A number of astroturf propaganda groups in Washington and elsewhere will be paid tens of millions of dollars in the next few months by the conservative Republican billionaire Pete Peterson and his allies to repeat these fallacies and get Beltway pundits and journalists to parrot them. But endless repetition does not turn fallacies into facts.
America does need long-term reforms to its entitlement system and tax system but they have nothing to do with the specious reforms peddled by Alan Simpson, Erskine Bowles, Alice Rivlin, Pete Peterson and allied CEOs. In addition to regulating excessive healthcare costs, the United States needs a middle-class welfare state that is bigger, not smaller. Its the restricted, elitist private welfare state that needs to be cut, not the universal public social insurance system.
The rest: http://www.salon.com/2012/11/27/the_fiscal_cliff_is_a_lie/
Lasher
(27,640 posts)I can't, so I'll just kick it.
Mnemosyne
(21,363 posts):kick:
BlueStreak
(8,377 posts)How the hell did we get to the point that the MSM and the Beltway morons are allowed to go for 60 days never once mentioning JOBS?
My hope is that Obama is cleverly using this shock doctrine myth of "the cliff" to set up another stimulus. His first stimulus was remarkable, not just that it passed and did stimulate the economy, but that it moved the country significantly forward on many new industries. His people intentionally set up "the cliff. The confluence of these factors (Bush taxes expiring, the sequester, and the debt ceiling) were all carefully orchestrated by Obama to come at the same time, just as he is kicking off his second term. That is no accident. Let's see how he uses it.
I have a lot of confidence that Obama is going to score here. I have been listening to Republicans a lot the past 2 weeks (that's all the MSM seems to talk to) and those morons have no clue what is happening. They have no plan. They are just babbling about "the cliff". This is the perfect setup.
And the Republicans are right panicked -- and that is before their constituents see their taxes go up January 1. I fully expect that Obama will let the whole thing blow up on them, unless the Republicans come forward with a very sweet deal before the end of the year. I think the odds are very low. The best deal Obama will get is AFTER the cuts expire and AFTER the Pentagon loses their money. That is when Obama has maximum leverage.
nenagh
(1,925 posts)Economics is tough to understand... so reading that ' "astroturf" propaganda groups in Washington' have set the agenda...
summerschild
(725 posts)The "fiscal cliff" is The Shock Doctrine in action.
We knew it was coming.
Are we shocked?
radiclib
(1,811 posts)William Penn was a Quaker, and I happen to know that Mr. Pitt is no Quaker.
Understandable, though. Pitt is in western Penn, after all.
summerschild
(725 posts)antigop
(12,778 posts)jsr
(7,712 posts)Liberalynn
(7,549 posts)NRaleighLiberal
(60,024 posts)blackspade
(10,056 posts)K&R
forestpath
(3,102 posts)lalalu
(1,663 posts)I posted something similar several days ago and was accused of wanting to let the unemployed and the children starve to death
hue
(4,949 posts)BlueCaliDem
(15,438 posts)if we go over the real fiscal cliff (that would be in March of next year) it would, yes, make all deficit go away BUT we would be plunged into a recession.
OTOT, there should be NO "grand bargain". It's just a really bad deal, and the Republicans had their chance years ago. That ship has sailed, and should be gone for good after last election.
truth2power
(8,219 posts)Prof. Richard Wolff's Brecht Forum lecture for November. I just finished watching it. It's an hour and a half long, but well worth your time.
Link:
http://www.rdwolff.com/content/global-capitalism-monthly-update-discussion-november-2012
Prof. Wolff states that those most worried about the deficit are those who lend to the U.S. govt. That would be banks, insurance companies, large corporations, the wealthy, and of course, China. So you see whose interests are being served by all this hoop-la over the deficit. Certainly not us, the 99%.
He also dispenses with the "rich create jobs" argument.
erpowers
(9,350 posts)I agree with Mr. Lind that Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid should not be cut. However, I do not think the system should be expanded.
First, there should be an effort to help workers get better pay and better jobs. Second, there needs to be an effort to prevent employers from benefitting from keeping workers out of 401(k) plans.
According to Ellen Schultz, in her book Retirement Heist, companies deduct contributions to employee benefits plans and the plans grow tax-deferred. However, to get this status employers have to prove their plans do not discriminate. Even if workers are not treated equally in benefits plans a company can be said to not discriminate. One of the best ways to be said not to discriminate is prevent the lowest paid workers from participating in the plans. If the lowest paid workers participate in benefits plans, but cannot contribute enough higher paid workers are not allowed to contribute the max amount. As a result, some companies just keep certain workers from participating in some benefits plans. The discrimination rules should be changed so that low income workers cannot be excluded from benefits plans.
mike_c
(36,281 posts)...pinned on 401(k)s. No one. Not the least paid workers or the best paid. I have a defined benefit pension-- THAT should be the standard, not 401(k)s. Sheesh. Why would ANYONE want a 401(k) rather than a fully funded defined benefit pension? With health coverage? Survivors' benefits?
Screw 401(k)s. Join a union and get a real retirement plan!
FarCenter
(19,429 posts)mike_c
(36,281 posts)I'm not worried. And my defined benefit pension is for life. That's the standard that every working person should demand. If tens of thousands of Californians can have such a retirement plan, every American should.
FarCenter
(19,429 posts)In the zero growth economy going forward, the estimated return on investment will not materialized. They are still using "smoothed" estimates that include data from the boom years in doing their math.
mike_c
(36,281 posts)Like I said, I'm not worried. I'm retiring in five or six years, at 64-ish. Every worker in America should have the peace of mind that I have about retirement.
FarCenter
(19,429 posts)mike_c
(36,281 posts)But really-- are you seriously arguing that a 401(k) is a better retirement vehicle than a defined benefit pension plan that's sufficiently funded to meet reasonably foreseeable obligations twenty or thirty years out? Seriously? I'll take my lifetime pension any day!
BainsBane
(53,074 posts)But cuts on everyone, amounting to a 17% increase for those at the bottom of the tax scale. The payroll tax expires, and a number of other provisions. Since I am in the 25% bracket, my income tax will increase to 28% and like everyone else my payroll taxes will go up 2%. But those who will fare the worst are poor Americans who dropped off the tax rolls after the Bush cuts. These are waitresses and Walmart workers, people barely getting by, who will have 17% of their paychecks disappear if no deal is reached. It bothers me that many here see this cliff or whatever you want to call it as about political brinkmanship. Why is that people here refuse to consider the impact of what they advocate on the nation's poorest Americans who already have trouble securing basic food and shelter?
Savannahmann
(3,891 posts)We might make some headway. Give me any odds you want, and I'll never bet money on that outcome.
Martin Eden
(12,876 posts)Gold Metal Flake
(13,805 posts)...is how one caller to Stephie referred to it.
dchill
(38,556 posts)grahamhgreen
(15,741 posts)Faryn Balyncd
(5,125 posts)dchill
(38,556 posts)half as much as the Dems and journos who are joining in. Two wars on the credit card combined with two tax cuts for the rich - there's your problem. Not social programs.
humbled_opinion
(4,423 posts)and I think it bares repeating that these current tax rates were supposed to have ended in 2010, the deficits that we are seeing are largely because they got extended. I Love Obama but I think it was a bad decision to extend these tax cuts in 2010 even though I know the thugs were holding the middle class rates hostage in their negotiations but we have to face facts the CBO reported that if we were to extend the current rates permanently it would add 3.3 trillion to the national debt in 10 years....
I will not support any cave in on the social safety nets, none no age raises, no benefit reductions, no increased costs.
Maybe it's time for a march on D.C.
lib2DaBone
(8,124 posts)What we are witnessing is the greatest transfer of wealth from the working poor and middle class to a select group of elites than at any time since the Robber Barons of the 1800's.
colsohlibgal
(5,275 posts)Stephanie Miller and her gang renamed it the Fiscal Cliff Clavin this morning, a bunch of blather like BS.
salinen
(7,288 posts)is it that every time I see Alan Simpson I want to punch his face?
Baitball Blogger
(46,763 posts)I've learned to distrust that look because of him.
humbled_opinion
(4,423 posts)when we continue to allow them to define the narrative.
It is important that the Democratic lawmakers do not wobble at this point, all this talk of grand bargains is nothing by chicanery perpetrated by political sore losers. They are trying to cut benefits (they only know one tune and that is privitization) and refuse to raise taxes on the weatlhiest at a time when people are most vulnerable due to a slowly recovering economy.
The absolute truth about the 2012 election of President Obama is that it was a clear choice, America has spoken, there is little need to rehash these debates.
Start making the historical argument that tax rates have been much much higher in times of crisis, i.e., in 1942 the effective tax rate on people making 200K and up per year was 88 percent and guess what the rich didn't disappear, they didn't die off, they paid their fair share and many continued to gain even more weatlh.
Demand the weathly pay a fair share.
WillyT
(72,631 posts)NashvilleLefty
(811 posts)I discuss this further:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021892552
Up2Late
(17,797 posts)...and the rest of them who keep repeating this?
NorthCarolina
(11,197 posts)without a "fiscal cliff" boogeyman? We are witnessing a grand deception that has been been scripted in advance, and is now being played out in DC and by much of the media. Likely it will even include some posters here on DU who will be at the ready to reassure folks that the cuts are not so bad considering the "dire circumstances" that forced them upon us. Transparent kabuki to some of us, but for many folks it is sufficient and believable. I have a sister in law that used to talk about Soap Operas she watched regularly as if they were stories about a neighbor or family member. Some have difficulty in separating reality from fiction, and that is the bedrock of their plan.
"It is the president's position that when we're talking about a broad, balanced approach to dealing with our fiscal challenges, that that includes dealing with entitlements," White House press secretary Jay Carney said Tuesday, referring to the mammoth benefit programs.
Centrist Democrats in the Senate argue that fellow Democrats must be willing to consider cuts to Medicare and Medicaid:
"It has to be both a significant revenue increase as well as spending cuts," said Sen. Max Baucus, D-Mont., chairman of the Senate Finance Committee.
Sen. Kent Conrad, D-N.D., who is retiring as chairman of the Senate Budget Committee, said rising health care costs in Medicare and Medicaid are helping to drive future spending, making them an essential part of a long-term deficit-reduction package.
"I've been part of every bipartisan group here. We've always put everything on the table," Conrad said. "If you're going to solve this problem, you're going to have to deal with where the spending is and the revenue can be raised."
Rosa Luxemburg
(28,627 posts)Jim Warren
(2,736 posts)Can't say offhand but it has the ring of Luntz newspeak.
grahamhgreen
(15,741 posts)Rosa Luxemburg
(28,627 posts)grahamhgreen
(15,741 posts)grahamhgreen
(15,741 posts)tomp
(9,512 posts)...remember, this "cliff/bluff" is a result of another "bargain" by obama and the dems.
tomp
(9,512 posts)...remember, this "cliff/bluff" is a result of another "bargain" by obama and the dems.
ProudProgressiveNow
(6,129 posts)Iggy
(1,418 posts)Aren't they the ones signing the blank checks (along with the repugs) for bush's TWO wars of choice? what's the tab thus far- $3 Trillion??
the notion "we can't afford" important social programs is total BULLS***, and I think most people here know it.
trusty elf
(7,402 posts)k&r
SHRED
(28,136 posts)You don't open the door to have a "discussion".
You open the door to beat them down with a baseball bat.
Plouffe, Durban, etc...need to understand that the wolves at the door are the private sector vulture corporatists and banksters disguised as the mainstream media and the Republican Party dying to feast on our safety nets.
---
CaptJasHook
(1,308 posts)The issue is the ambiguity and unease created by the current lack of explanation of the numbers. I still can't make out what the hell is happening to Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. I have to rely on he said, she said. I have seen the jumble of numbers a dozen times and I still don't feel good about them. Especially when we have a large Baby Boomer population that wants to live until they are 90 soaking up a lot of those funds.
Does anybody have a solid, reliable Nate Silverersque website that explains it all? And why don't Progressives have someone out there pounding away at a counter message? The Wall Streeters have great marketing skills, where are ours? Is Bill Clinton the only dubious asset we have?
Tierra_y_Libertad
(50,414 posts)preventivePhD
(53 posts)... because they're all still trying to sell the right. People should just boycott them.
libodem
(19,288 posts)That is what the rich are born into. That is THEIR word.
Ours is a benefit.
Benefit.
Arugula Latte
(50,566 posts)We need to start countering the propaganda in social media.