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eridani

(51,907 posts)
Tue Dec 11, 2012, 04:55 AM Dec 2012

Do people get more conservative as they age? The answer: No.

Do people get more conservative as they age?
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/12/07/1166058/-The-great-grey-hope-of-Republicans

Some people answer this question with a resounding 'Yes!'

Fortunately, we have 40 years worth of Presidential exit polls to use to try to poke around at this question. I say we can 'poke around' because we can't actually get an answer to this question as written using the exit polls, for reasons that will become clear in a bit. But we can answer a more utilitarian variant of this question: Do voters from a specific generation tend to vote more Republican as that generation gets older? The answer: No.

Below, I've taken all the exit poll data by age and plotted it up. For example, voters age 18-24 in 2008 voted 66% for Obama. This data point can be found as a green hexagon in the upper right-hand corner, at 66% Democratic and birth year 1987. For clarity, only the midpoint birth year is shown for each data point, and not the full age range.

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To summarize:
Voters from a specific generation do not trend towards Republicans as that generation ages. However, younger voters are far more Democratic than their parents and grandparents, and they're staying that way. Since 1984, there has also been a trend within generations towards support for the Democrat. These two facts are mostly explained by increasing diversity within generations, and greater diversity in the younger generations. To a lesser extent, the youngest generation is also more supportive of Democrats (compared to their parents) for white voters as well. Finally, before 1984, shifting allegiances due to realignment processes resulted in some fairly dramatic swings in voting patterns.
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Do people get more conservative as they age? The answer: No. (Original Post) eridani Dec 2012 OP
kr HiPointDem Dec 2012 #1
I'd like to see the Truman generation. /nt Festivito Dec 2012 #2
The graph you posted doesn't correspond to the text you posted above it. GeorgeGist Dec 2012 #3
Check the link for more graphs and footnotes n/t eridani Dec 2012 #4

GeorgeGist

(25,323 posts)
3. The graph you posted doesn't correspond to the text you posted above it.
Tue Dec 11, 2012, 10:19 AM
Dec 2012

Interesting read.

Not sure of the science since there's no source provided for the data.

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