Newt probably has never even run a tv ad in Texas...he will, and the matchup poll will become more meaningful. Gingrich will win the primary there, and will immediately poll 10 points ahead of Obama. I'm sure Obama will run a campaign there....but he will devote time and resources to much more likely wins.

But Newt won't be the nominee.

landslide. A little bit better / worse than 2008, but in the same area.

If the interim redistricting maps aren't settled soon the primary could move again.

However, I think this year might be different. In my opinion, Romney will undoubtedly be the GOP candidate and there will be swarms of dejected Texas conservatives who will stay home in November.

Remember, it was not John McCain who won the 2008 TX GOP primary, it was Huckabee. Our wingnuts aren't fond of perceived moderates.

Well knock me down and fuck me sideways. I didn't look it up, but got two replies saying that (so I'll assume you're right). WTF was up with that? Weird.

note that back then, Mr. Texas Jim Wright (gosh I had forgotten about that guy) was the House Majority Leader during Carter's first term (and he eventually became Speaker).

Before that, TX had voted Democrat in the 1968 election probably as a nod to the "native son" Texan Johnson.

Strategy didn't work.

The South voted for Clinton (maybe not Texas, but many Southern states did).

The South didn't go GOP until 1994. So, if it took 20+ years to work, the Southern Strategy wasn't very effective, was it? Personally, I think it was the rise of Faux News that worked on the South - not Nixon.

and I think he also went elsewhere. He got some big money from TX. He won Dallas County in the GE.

TX has a large minority population, which votes primarily Democratic, although they are concentrated in a few areas. However, the Republican TX legislature has just redrawn the districts to spread out the minority populations, so Democrats won't win districts. It's in the Courts right now, so we'll see. I suspect they'll win. That's one of the consequences for a party being in power...ability to redraw districts in weird, nonsensical ways purely for political gain.