Economic growth revised up, exceeds expectations

By Steve Benen



The initial estimate on economic growth in the third quarter -- July, August, and September -- was an underwhelming 2 percent. Since then, the numbers have been revised up, and then revised up again.

The U.S. economy grew more quickly than previously stated in the July-to-September quarter due to stronger trade, faster health-care spending and increased local government construction, the Commerce Department estimated Thursday. The Commerce Department said third-quarter gross domestic product grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.1% in the third quarter.... Economists polled by MarketWatch had anticipated a 2.9% reading in the third and final estimate.

For context, note that the 3.1 percent GDP figure is the best since the end of 2011, and the second best quarter of the last three years. It's short of what most would consider a "robust" recovery, but it's nevertheless heartening.

As for the politics, to reiterate a point from last month, the conventional wisdom suggests President Obama won a second term in spite of a struggling economy, but in light of the stronger growth shortly before the election, it may be time to consider whether Obama prevailed because of an improving economy.

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http://maddowblog.msnbc.com/_news/2012/12/20/16041780-economic-growth-revised-up-exceeds-expectations

Jobless claims climb, but remain below threshold

By Steve Benen



After last week's unexpectedly good news, it was widely assumed that the initial unemployment claims would climb a bit, and the new report from the Department of Labor showed exactly that.

The Labor Department said Thursday that first-time jobless claims rose 17,000 to a seasonally adjusted 361,000 in the week ended Dec. 15, versus a slightly upwardly revised 344,000 in the prior week. That's almost exactly in line with the MarketWatch-compiled economist consensus of 360,000.

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In terms of metrics, when jobless claims fall below the 400,000 threshold, it's considered evidence of an improving jobs landscape, and when the number drops below 370,000, it suggests jobs are being created rather quickly. We've been below the 370,000 threshold just four of the last eight weeks, though the further we get from the effects of Hurricane Sandy, the more these figures should improve.

Above you'll find the chart showing weekly, initial unemployment claims going back to the beginning of 2007. (Remember, unlike the monthly jobs chart, a lower number is good news.) For context, I've added an arrow to show the point at which President Obama's Recovery Act began spending money.

http://maddowblog.msnbc.com/_news/2012/12/20/16041590-jobless-claims-climb-but-remain-below-threshold