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ProSense

(116,464 posts)
Tue Jan 1, 2013, 04:06 PM Jan 2013

House GOP Balking On Fiscal Cliff Deal

House GOP Balking On Fiscal Cliff Deal

David Kurtz

It’s been hard to find a single sign today that the fiscal cliff deal is going to garner support from a majority of House Republicans — and there are abundant signs pointing in the opposite direction. Similarly, there’s no evidence that Speaker Boehner is preparing to pass the bill with less than majority GOP support.

In short, things are not playing out today consistent with the notion that the White House, Senate and House had really reached a deal last night that each side could deliver on. And the gamble the White House and Senate may have made that they could pressure the House with a fait accompli of a deal is looking like a bust.

I don’t guess this should be a surprise. The underlying politics have changed very little since the House GOP shot down Boehner’s own plan B. But it is mystifying why Senate Republicans thought this deal would fly — or why it would leave them less exposed politically even if it died in the House.

The latest from the Hill is talk of the House amending the bill — i.e., adding spending cuts — and shipping it back to the Senate. A game of legislative hot potato. But that doesn’t seem likely to go anywhere. So we’re stuck. Again. No resolution in sight.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2013/01/house_gop_balking_on_fiscal_cliff_deal.php

This bill expires once the new Congress convenes January 3.
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House GOP Balking On Fiscal Cliff Deal (Original Post) ProSense Jan 2013 OP
The deal as is, or the cliff alcibiades_mystery Jan 2013 #1
Look at it this way, ProSense Jan 2013 #4
You have to be willing to live with spending cuts to social programs??? One of the 99 Jan 2013 #7
Everyone who ProSense Jan 2013 #8
The problem is most won't have to deal with the consquences. One of the 99 Jan 2013 #10
Who didn't see that coming? GoCubsGo Jan 2013 #2
They want spending "restraint" flamingdem Jan 2013 #3
They want to go over the cliff? ProSense Jan 2013 #6
My analysis after hearing reports just now flamingdem Jan 2013 #9
any hint of boner killing the Hastert rule and bringing it anyway? yodermon Jan 2013 #5
 

alcibiades_mystery

(36,437 posts)
1. The deal as is, or the cliff
Tue Jan 1, 2013, 04:08 PM
Jan 2013

Either works for me, though the cliff is a nasty result.

If the House GOP can't do what they should, too bad.

ProSense

(116,464 posts)
4. Look at it this way,
Tue Jan 1, 2013, 04:27 PM
Jan 2013

we get to test the theory that President Obama can get a better deal.

There are pros and cons to going over the cliff.

The best things about going over the cliff are the defense cuts and the expiration of the full tax cuts on the rich. The worst things are the spending cuts to social programs (and you have to be willing to live with these).

This deal allows the majority of the tax cuts on the rich to expire, preserves the safety net, delivers more relief to low-income and unemployed Americans and doesn't cut spending.

Over the cliff, I think unemployment benefits would be extended, though I doubt it would be for a full year at 73 weeks. The President would definitely introduce the tax cuts below $250,000, but there is no guarantee he would get them. Sure Republicans would look like assholes for blocking them, but has that ever mattered to them?

The other programs in the current deal would not pass. Republicans, especially those in the House, would balk at extending the 2009 similus tax credits for college tuition, doc fix, permanent AMT and renewable energy tax credits.

Krugman agrees:

As background, it’s important to understand what Obama clearly could have gotten just by going over the cliff. Basically, he could have gotten the whole of the Bush high-end tax cuts reversed, which would mean close to $800 billion in revenue over the next decade. What he couldn’t get, or at least couldn’t count on getting, were various spending items. This included the extension of unemployment benefits and various “refundables” on things like the Earned Income Tax Credit, that is, pieces of tax legislation that end up having the government cut checks to families instead of the other way around.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/12/31/conceder-in-chief-2/



One of the 99

(2,280 posts)
7. You have to be willing to live with spending cuts to social programs???
Tue Jan 1, 2013, 04:49 PM
Jan 2013

That's is easy to say for anyone who is not directly impacted by this cuts. But there are millions of people that will be and these cuts will be devastating to them. Are we really willing to let other people's children to starve to stand up for our ideological principles?

ProSense

(116,464 posts)
8. Everyone who
Tue Jan 1, 2013, 04:58 PM
Jan 2013

advocates going over the cliff is basically saying they're willing to live with the consequences.

Frankly, those focused on the expiration of all the tax cuts as the most important thing are putting the spending cuts, extension of unemployment and other aid secondary to that goal. I know because I accepted that to let the tax cuts expire meant postponing any extension or even losing some of these programs and accepting the spending cuts.

Howard Dean: "I think the smart thing to do here is to go over the cliff..."
http://upload.democraticunderground.com/10022097157

Robert Reich:

More importantly, the fiscal cliff is on the President’s side as well. If we go over it, he and the Democrats in the next Congress that starts later this week can quickly offer legislation that grants a middle-class tax cut and restores most military spending. Even rabid Republicans would be hard-pressed not to sign on.

http://upload.democraticunderground.com/10022110382

Krugman acknowledges (see previous comment) that some things will be lost.

One of the 99

(2,280 posts)
10. The problem is most won't have to deal with the consquences.
Tue Jan 1, 2013, 06:10 PM
Jan 2013

The brunt of those consquences will be felt by other people. Howard Dean, who is governed as a fiscal conservative in Vermont, and Paul Krugman and Robert Reich won't be losing needed benefits by going over the cliff. It's easy for them to say go over the cliff because they won't be hurt much by it.

ProSense

(116,464 posts)
6. They want to go over the cliff?
Tue Jan 1, 2013, 04:45 PM
Jan 2013

Biggest deficit reduction of all these proposals.

Fine, let the tax cuts expire. We'll all have to deal with what we get on the other side.

flamingdem

(39,313 posts)
9. My analysis after hearing reports just now
Tue Jan 1, 2013, 05:16 PM
Jan 2013

is that the teabaggers in the house do not even understand what is at stake or the details... we're up against stupid here and thus the results are chaotic!

I hope the admin can make lemonade out of these lemons.

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