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cthulu2016

(10,960 posts)
Sun Mar 10, 2013, 06:32 PM Mar 2013

At some point incoming SS taxes will be less than outgoing SS benefits

Last edited Sun Mar 10, 2013, 09:58 PM - Edit history (1)

What happens at that point? Are benefits cut when the money coming in fails short of outlays?

Nope. Benefits start being partially funded from the $3 trillion in the SS Trust Fund.

But didn't America already spend that money on the Iraq War (as an example) and such? Yes, but that does not really mean the money is gone, despite the slight of hand some people use to exaggerate SS's problems.

Let's say, for purpose of example, that we paid for the Iraq War 50% by selling bonds to the SS trust fund and 50% by selling bonds to Japan.

And let's say that in 2020 Japan needs some cash, so they sell those bonds to China or American investors or somebody. This means little to us... we already agreed to pay back those bonds to whoever owns them. Our obligation to Japan shifts to China or American investors or somebody.

Mike says, "I loaned Jane $5 so the $5 you owe Jane is now owed to me." This changes nothing on your end. You still owe somebody $5. (And anyone who thinks that's a huge change was probably planning to stiff Jane....hmmmm.)

Now substitute the Social Security trust fund needing cash for Japan needing cash in that example. Nothing much should change. Instead of Japan selling US bonds (that have been on our books for a decade) to raise cash, the US sells US bonds (that have been on our books for a decade) to raise cash.

The only difference is that, unlike Japan, the SS Trust Fund holds bonds of a special sort that it cannot sell to China or American investors.

All the USA needs to do is, when the time comes, to replace those bonds with the equivalent in dollars, or with bonds that can be sold by an administrator of the fund.

There is nothing so new or challenging in any of that. Though the bonds in the Trust Fund are a special sort they are not new debt. They are already on the books.

And here's the nifty part. Find one of these things:



The USA sells $1 trillion of bonds to Japan and takes that stack of cash and gives it to the SS Trust Fund, in exchange for Trust Fund bonds with a value $1 trillion. The US government then burns that stack of Trust Fund bonds (just to be dramatic).

What happened to the debt clock at the end of the day? Nothing.

When we (seemingly) went into a trillion dollars of new debt to raise cash, we also paid down the debt by a trillion dollars.

It is not the USA putting a trillion from general revenues into Social Security. It is the USA managing its existing debt by swapping new bonds for old bonds dollar-for-dollar in value.

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Cleita

(75,480 posts)
2. People don't seem to get that our Treasury's debt to the Social Security fund
Sun Mar 10, 2013, 06:37 PM
Mar 2013

is not the Social Security's fund debt but asset. Our Treasury owes the money to the the fund not the other way around. It's simple bookkeeping. Really! In 2038 when we might get to the point of only being able to pay 80% of benefits, we still will have enough to do that. Now if we lifted the cap and made the more affluent among us pay more of their share of the burden, it will be fine and fully funded up until the next century.

 

ZOB

(151 posts)
3. As Somebody Who Benefits From The FICA Cap...
Sun Mar 10, 2013, 07:53 PM
Mar 2013

...I'd happily see it eliminated to secure SS for the future.

I know that SS is completely solvent as is for the next 20+ years, but

...I think it's reasonable to eliminate that cap to ensure SS long-term viability.

















 

ZOB

(151 posts)
5. I Think That IF You're Going To Address It At All
Sun Mar 10, 2013, 08:09 PM
Mar 2013

Eliminating it entirely is less regressive than simply raising the cap.

Why should somebody making $250,000 a year get an advantage that somebody making $110,000 (or whatever the cap is this year) doesn't?

Igel

(35,317 posts)
6. It's the last step that's seen as a potential problem.
Sun Mar 10, 2013, 09:37 PM
Mar 2013

The Treasury can issue a lot of debt to the SS Trust Fund. Bottomless pit.

The interest rate is variable and determined by law. But it basically stays in-house and is just added to the amount owed to the SS Trust Fund.

But while the intergovernmental SS Trust Fund debt clearly part of the national debt, it's not part of the publicly held debt. That's calculated separately. When the amount of debt offered publicly exceeds demands by buyers, you'll see interest rates on the T-bills increase. Sloppy speaking confounds "national debt" and "publicly held debt." Sloppy reporting obscures the difference. Decent research and reporting keep them separate. Politicians, speaking to the typical reporter and tv viewer, have little interest in precision, even if they were always capable of it. Such precision would be seen as pedantic and a definite turn-off.

For now, T-bill interest is very low. Part of that has been because, as the media constantly say, US debt is still safer than most other kinds of investment instruments and this is responsible for the high demand (and therefore low interest). However, the media also report on QE 3, part of which is that the Fed has purchased record amounts of T-bills in the last 4 years. This Fed purchasing of US Treasury debt has surely contributed at least a modicum to the high demand. It won't continue forever. It might not continue past September 2013.

As we accept amounts twice the usual *-era deficits as "normal" and necessarily sharply cut back on QE we'll find that we're converting intergovernmental debt into publicly held debt. That may drive up interest rates if supply exceeds demand. If there is a more general world-wide recovery and restoration of confidence that would also reduce demand and drive up interest rates. That would be a horrible thing. It would restore some longevity to the SS Trust Fund, as any rolled-over debt earned greater interest. But it would trash the discretionary fund Congress has to work with.

cthulu2016

(10,960 posts)
7. All true, but probably not a real stumbling block
Sun Mar 10, 2013, 09:55 PM
Mar 2013

It is entirely possible that that last step may be more expensive than contemplated. I won't be surprised if we end up paying $3.2 or $3.3 trillion real dollars for something that should have only cost us $3 trillion real dollars.

But whatever higher interest rates we might have to pay are only a problem to the degree they are an isolated effect of processing the 3 or 4 trillion itself.

For instance, if the economy is better interest rates will surely be higher, but so will SS contributions and general govt. revenue.

And whatever degree inflation increases rates is a wash -- the same inflation will be inflating SS and other revenue.

And there should be no credit-worthiness issue, since our net indebtedness doesn't go up.

So we get down to the specific marketplace effect of the specific needs of the SS trust fund itself. And that $3-4 trillion of additional bond sales over however many years (10? 15?) shouldn't break the bank.

IMO.

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