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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region Forums"Has Obama Turned a Generation of Voters Into Lifelong Democrats?"
Has Obama Turned a Generation of Voters Into Lifelong Democrats?by Molly Ball at the Atlantic
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2013/04/a-democratic-age/309258/
"SNIP.......................................................
Paul Ryan had a vision for the youth vote in 2012. In his speech accepting the Republican vice-presidential nomination, the Wisconsin congressman imagined legions of recent college graduates forced to live out their 20s in their childhood bedrooms, staring up at fading Obama posters and wondering when they can move out and get going with life.
Ryan was sure those kids had recovered from their passing Obama fever and would either stay home or vote Republican. What happened, of course, was very different. The under-30 vote went nearly as strongly for Obama as it had before: Obama got 66 percent of the under-30 vote in 2008 and 60 percent in 2012, the best youth-vote showings for any presidential candidate since 1971, when the voting age was lowered to 18. Against the by-now-familiar backdrop of massive Obama rallies on college campuses, liberal youth might just seem like the normal order of things. But theres nothing natural about it. Ronald Reagan came within a point of capturing the under‑30 vote in his 1980 presidential election, then won it by 19 points in 1984, giving the lie to the idea that kids are inherently liberal.
Now some Democrats hope Obamas repeat success with young voters signals the arrival of a cohort whose members will vote Democratic for the rest of their lives. These are voters who are in their formative years, politically, Joel Benenson, the lead pollster for the Obama campaign, told me excitedly in the days after the election. People frequently maintain the partisan identity that shapes their entry point into politics. Whats happening now is something people will hang on to for decades to come.
Could Benenson be right? Has Obama turned an entire generation of voters into lifelong Democrats? The answer, according to political scientists who study partisanship, may well be yes. Voting for a party is a habit, they say, and the habit tends to stick. The Americans who came of age under FDR leaned more Democratic than the electorate as a whole for the rest of their voting lives. Many of todays oldest voterswho broke for Mitt Romney by a wider margin than any other age groupcast their first, formative ballots in the Eisenhower years. And the Reagan era (spanning his 1980 election, his 1984 reelection, and the 1988 election of his vice president, George H. W. Bush) had a particularly marked effect on the rising voters of the 1980s. The Americans who entered the electorate during that time have remained disproportionately loyal to the GOP compared with voters overall.
......................................................SNIP"
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"Has Obama Turned a Generation of Voters Into Lifelong Democrats?" (Original Post)
applegrove
Mar 2013
OP
Wherever there are disgruntled white people there will be Republicans.
Sen. Walter Sobchak
Mar 2013
#5
graham4anything
(11,464 posts)1. YES He Did.
yourout
(7,532 posts)2. I think the Republicans get most of the credit.
Obama helped but Ryan, Palin, and Mitt did most of the heavy lifting.
applegrove
(118,767 posts)3. I think Occupy awoke many moderate Americans and Obama capitalized on that
in a way Occupy couldn't because it went left (anti free trade, anti capitalist) in a way that Obama didn't. That was a big shift. Whereas the 2008 election was anti George Bush and pro 'this interesting new guy', the 2012 election really was choosing Obama's policies and worldview and rejecting the Republican one.
Tarheel_Dem
(31,239 posts)4. Yes! nt
Sen. Walter Sobchak
(8,692 posts)5. Wherever there are disgruntled white people there will be Republicans.
It is a renewable resource.
msongs
(67,438 posts)6. reagan and obama were personality votes not necessarily political content votes.
reagan was the fun grandpa you wished you had and obama was the cool dude. their politics were less relevant from a sway the young voters with content kind of view IMO
MotherPetrie
(3,145 posts)7. IMO articles like this are so premature