General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsNV caucus: Low turnout. Romney gets lower percentage than in 2008, despite Mormon vote.
Real-time results at this HuffPo page:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/02/04/map-nevada-caucus-2012-results_n_1254520.html
With 42.9% of the precincts reporting, Romney is getting 42.5% of the vote, compared to 26.2% for Gingrich, 18.4% for Paul, and 13% for Santorum.
In 2008, Romney got 51.1% of the vote, compared to 13.7% for Paul and 12.7% for McCain.
Turnout seems to be way down from 2008. I believe South Carolina, which Gingrich won, was the only GOP primary so far with more votes than 2008.
And GOP turnout for the NV caucus in 2008 was poor compared to Democratic turnout, 44,000 to 116,000.
We don't know this year's GOP caucus turnout yet, but so far with 43% of precincts reporting, that's only about 16,000 people.
Mormons made up just over a quarter of the caucus participants this year, as they did in 2008:
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/02/nevadas-a-romney-romp/
Romney got 90% of their vote.
That means that approximately half of the votes for Romney -- possibly more than half -- came from Mormons, though they make up only 7% of the population of the state.
This was NOT a resounding victory for Romney.
It shows there really isn't much enthusiasm for his candidacy in Nevada, except among his fellow Mormons.
ProSense
(116,464 posts)https://twitter.com/davidaxelrod/status/165986446811996160
rufus dog
(8,419 posts)They seem to have a dilemma. Mitt can win the primary contests but can't get the base excited. Newt can whip the base into a lynch mob but that will motivate the Dems to come out in record numbers.
provis99
(13,062 posts)the republicans are already looking towards 2016.
But that raises the question: In the hierarchical GOP, who is The Next One???
rocktivity
(44,577 posts)JCMach1
(27,572 posts)tanyev
(42,601 posts)davidpdx
(22,000 posts)I would say based on the vote current vote count, the total number of people who voted will be 25,000 +/= 1,000. I also am predicting Romney will not go over 50%.