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ProSense

(116,464 posts)
Sun May 5, 2013, 01:39 PM May 2013

Krugman: Naive Fiscal Cynicism

Naive Fiscal Cynicism

Expansionary austerity has been refuted and even the IMF sayis that short-run multipliers are big. The 90 percent red line on debt was an artifact of fuzzy math. The bond vigilantes remain invisible, and the confidence fairy refuses to make an appearance. Clearly, austerian economics has imploded (and some prominent austerians seem to be personally imploding too)...my read of the discussion is that there’s also something else going on — an attitude that passes for realism, but is in fact sheer fantasy.

The line, which you see in discussion all the time, goes something like this: “OK, I see that in principle you might want to stimulate now, and pay for it later. But we all know that stimulus programs, once introduced on an alleged temporary basis, never actually go away; and the reality is that governments never pay down debt in good times.”

I see the appeal of this line; it sounds like knowing, worldly-wide cynicism. But if you look even briefly at the actual history, it turns out to bear no resemblance to reality.

Start with stimulus programs. As it turns out, there have only been two significant spending stimulus programs in US history — by which I mean programs deliberately introduced to fight an economic downturn. One was FDR’s program, the WPA/CCC and all that; the other was the spending part of the Obama ARRA. So what happened to each of these programs? Why, not only did both go away; both went away too soon, with premature austerity hitting in 1937 and again in 2010. So much for stimulus that never ends.

- more -

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/05/05/naive-fiscal-cynicism



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ProSense

(116,464 posts)
1. Kick for
Sun May 5, 2013, 02:33 PM
May 2013

what could have been.

The Jobs Program That Wasn’t

Macroeconomic Advisers on the American Jobs Act, proposed a year ago:

We estimate that the American Jobs Act (AJA), if enacted, would give a significant boost to GDP and employment over the near-term.

-The various tax cuts aimed at raising workers’ after-tax income and encouraging hiring and investing, combined with the spending increases aimed at maintaining state & local employment and funding infrastructure modernization, would:
-Boost the level of GDP by 1.3% by the end of 2012, and by 0.2% by the end of 2013.
-Raise nonfarm establishment employment by 1.3 million by the end of 2012 and 0.8 million by the end of 2013, relative to the baseline

Of course, it that had happened, Obama would be more or less a lock for reelection. Instead, having blocked the president’s economic plans, Republicans can point to weak job growth and claim that the president’s policies have failed.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/08/the-jobs-program-that-wasnt/

freshwest

(53,661 posts)
2. Very true about the WPA/CCC and ARRA; but what they created, still exists to benefit the public.
Sun May 5, 2013, 02:34 PM
May 2013

The conservative mentality of building and taking profit, then abandoning communities, is destructive to everyone but themselves.

Those who decry public works and want all done by the private sector, are hit and run con artists, leaving nothing to future generations. They sing loudly the praises of private works and charities, as long as they get a cut.

Those New Deal programs have served those who were not yet born and beyond those who made them, as are some of Obama's changes and programs which get no media coverage, so those who don't know can hide behind conservative myths.

Krugman has described the 'knowing, worldly-wise cynics' very well. Their narrative of what government, Obama and the New Deal have done in the real world proves them to be no more than know-nothings.

phantom power

(25,966 posts)
3. There was one other stimulus program, that never ended...
Sun May 5, 2013, 02:51 PM
May 2013

that was our military industrial complex, ramped up for WWII, and never dismantled. WWII, to the Cold War, Korean War, Viet Nam war, Iraq I, Iraq II, Afghanistan, the War On Terror...

The last few years have proven conclusively that Social Security is no longer a 3rd rail, but military spending sure as shit is.

 

alcibiades_mystery

(36,437 posts)
4. "...and some prominent austerians seem to be personally imploding too..."
Sun May 5, 2013, 02:58 PM
May 2013

Ouchies for uberdick Niall Ferguson!



Krugman with the skillful slice.

 

alcibiades_mystery

(36,437 posts)
12. Agreed...he reveals himself as
Sun May 5, 2013, 07:45 PM
May 2013

an utter homophobe and bigot, three ways round.

That he also dwelled at some length on Keynes homosexuality in "The Pity of War" is also disturbing; apparently, he suggested in that text that Keynes may have been vociferously against the war merely because it was taking away his hot young cruising partners!

Truly, the guy is demented. (Not to mention that Wilfred Owen--from whom Ferguson took his title--has not been free of rumors...)

DallasNE

(7,403 posts)
7. Want To Pay Down Debt?
Sun May 5, 2013, 04:00 PM
May 2013

A good start would be to eliminate the tax dodges built into the code that only impact the wealthy.

A few months ago it was pointed out that current tax code gives corporations tax credits to offset the amount they pay out in executive stock option bonuses. Companies apply for a tax credit when they announce stock options for executives. In a recent year the tax credit to pay executive bonuses was $700 million for just Apple. Now we learn Apple is at it again. They have announced a $55 billion stock buyback. The way the tax code works Apple will avoid $9.5 billion in taxes, according to this article. Why the tax code has all of these goodies for the super wealthy while making sharp cuts to things like Head Start and Meals-On-Wheels just boggles the mind.

http://www.truth-out.org/opinion/item/16177-apple-dodges-enough-taxes-to-cover-much-of-the-sequester

jazzimov

(1,456 posts)
8. Some say we should run Government as a business,
Sun May 5, 2013, 04:04 PM
May 2013

some like to compare Government to a family. But Government is neither.

It should be so simple - when the economy is down, Government still has borrowing power and can help create jobs and spend money to get cash flowing again. Once the economy is flourishing, this spending is no longer needed and government revenues increase. So, when the economy is down government needs to spend more to stimulate the economy. When the economy is up - that's the time for the government to pay down the deficits that it accrued during the down economy.

As I said, it should be so simple - why can't more people see this common sense approach?

Thank the universe for people like Krugman.

 

RC

(25,592 posts)
9. It is that simple and that is what healthy government do.
Sun May 5, 2013, 05:02 PM
May 2013

But our government is being run by greedy people, who have gamed the system.

DallasNE

(7,403 posts)
10. People Need To Look At History
Sun May 5, 2013, 06:16 PM
May 2013

Following the Civil War this nation went through many severe boom and bust cycles. Following one of those busts Teddy Roosevelt determined that we needed to break up the monopolies that were seen as a source for this. But the Tea Party of the day headed by William Howard Taft rejected the reforms Roosevelt put in and a wave of immigrants from Europe masked the impact of Taft's changes and fueled by war spending the nation had one more boom cycle before the granddaddy of busts called the Great Depression soon followed. It was out of this disaster that Keynes developed his common sense approach to the role of government in the various phases an economy goes through. That pretty much held sway until Ronald Reagan came into power. His supply side economic policy ushered in the steepest recession since the Great Depression. Some of that was unwound and the economy recovered but boom and bust cycles were returning. Bill Clinton righted that ship but George W. Bush came along and ushered in supply side but addressed only the tax side that ushered in huge deficits. But these were not ordinary tax cuts as they focused mostly on the very wealthy so the stimulus was almost non-existent and when coupled with deregulation sent the economy plunging over the cliff. Another Great Depression was avoided only when Congress adopted the TARP program under Bush (but with more Democratic votes than Republican votes) and the 2009 Stimulus bill that was straight out of the Keynes playbook. The Republican economic playbook continues to move rightward where they now propose to privatize much of what government does with the public still footing the bill but that will hamstring future applications of Keynes economic theory because government can no longer give the economy a quick boost during an economic downturn and instead set up new boom and bust cycles. When the philosophy is that government is the problem then what is common sense to you and me is something to be avoided like the plague. But make no mistake, the government is the problem approach is the problem. But corporations own MSM and that means the government is the problem folks are controlling the message and making it very hard for the message of the true common sense to be heard.

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