After two bad weeks for Gomez, Cook Report downgrades the MA Sen Race from lean Markey to tossup.
Cook Report is a respectable firm which often does a good work, but it is really hard to figure out what causes this change. I also cannot find anything else than Bernstein's article, but he is somebody I trust and respect.
[link:http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2013/senate/ma/massachusetts_senate_special_election_gomez_vs_markey-3774.html|Markey wins every single poll out including the internal Gomez poll, with an advantage between 3 (Gomez poll) and 17 (Suffolk).
He has been called a liar by pretty much every single respectable paper in the state and out of the state.
[link:http://www.democraticunderground.com/10022921964|CREW has a complaint against him.
Even the Globe writes bad articles on him http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2013/senate/ma/massachusetts_senate_special_election_gomez_vs_markey-3774.html.
In this climate, Cook Report decides to downgrade the race to tossup?
Here is David Bernstein's article: http://www.bostonmagazine.com/news/blog/2013/05/30/cook-report-throws-up-its-hands/
Morale will be good tonight at the Gabriel Gomez campaign; the highly respected Cook Political Report has just changed its rating on the Massachusetts US Senate race from “Lean Democrat” to “Toss Up.”
And, according to Bernstein, they do not even seem to have a rational for this:
The explanation is a little less rosey. “In truth, we have had a difficult time accepting the idea that this race might get close,” writes Cook’s Jennifer Duffy, who made the call. “None of the circumstances that existed in early 2010 that paved the way for the upset that then-GOP state Sen. Scott Brown pulled over Democratic Attorney General Martha Coakley are present.”
But clearly Cook had to take notice of the fact that with all the inherent advantages — and a four-to-one TV advertising advantage, according to a report it cites — Ed Markey has yet to pull away in polls with less than four weeks to go.
Aside the fact that there are very few polls for this race and that 2 of them are in double digits, most of them are about +6 (including the latest PPP which is not in the realpolitics report I linked to, and no new race has been published in the last 10 days.
So, what happened? Nothing, but this rating can be a boom for the Gomez campaign that pains to excite the national GOP.
= new reply since forum marked as read
"Six months after the shootings in Newtown, and one month after the Manchin-Toomey gun control legislation died in the Senate, we already have a test case of how the gun control might play out with voters. It has emerged this week as a major issue in the the special election for John Kerry’s vacated Massachusetts Senate seat—and the Republican candidate’s somewhat comical inability to effectively defend his position is perhaps a promising sign for reformers.
"Last week, Representative Ed Markey, the Democratic candidate, released a fairly standard campaign ad promising to “fight for common sense laws to stop gun violence.” It noted that the Republican candidate, former Navy SEAL Gabriel Gomez, “is against banning high-capacity magazines like the ones used in the Newtown school shooting.”
http://www.edmarkey.com/news/2013/the-nation-massachusetts-senate-race-turns-to-gun-control/
It could be that Ed Markey will still win in accordance with earlier polls. But if he really is committed to a gun-control issue, and really believes that the 1994 election and the loss of the Democratic control of Congress was an anomaly and that the gun-control issue will help, he could test that by vigorously pushing that issue some more.
Self-Reported Gun Ownership in U.S. Is Highest Since 1993
http://www.gallup.com/poll/150353/self-reported-gun-ownership-highest-1993.aspx
