General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsOops! Invest 91L has formed - keep an eye on this one - now 60% chance of becoming a TS
Last edited Wed Jun 5, 2013, 05:52 PM - Edit history (2)
From: NOAA
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA
OF CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD.
hobbit709
(41,694 posts)malaise
(269,187 posts)Today they say it has a 20% chance. Hopefully she disappears quickly although last year Florida had some serious early damage from a similar one
hobbit709
(41,694 posts)If she's calm and relaxed, it doesn't matter how many severe thunderstorm warnings they're flashing on the TV screen. If they say it's not going to rain and all of a sudden she heads for the bathtub-it's gonna. She gives 45 minutes to an hour warning before it hits.
SoCalDem
(103,856 posts)but then they also hide sometimes.,. just to hide
malaise
(269,187 posts)and if the feral cats invade our patio I know a storm is coming.
hootinholler
(26,449 posts)I first look for a hawk. Last year there were 2 adult and 2 juvenile Hawks (not sure, they might have been golden eagles) that cruise through here hunting.
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)I'm in St Pete...we're already prepped for several days of rain and t-storms from this system. Had a heavy rain this morning already. My musician friends are probably looking at several cancelled gigs.
malaise
(269,187 posts)St Pete's - love that place - my youngest sister lived there for years.
bike man
(620 posts)precise direction to warn about window boarding.
NightWatcher
(39,343 posts)Crap, I've got too many projects going on for a week of tropical rains.
malaise
(269,187 posts)1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND
LOCATED WELL EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO..BEFORE THE LOW INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE..40 PERCENT..OF
BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA..CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...AS WELL
AS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
Baclava
(12,047 posts)"The area in the Gulf, 91L, continues to hang in the gulf, but is starting to show more subtropical characteristics, which ultimately means more rain and breezy conditions over a larger area. The west side of the system is still involved in a lot of dry air, as the general center itself is still off the tip of the Yucatan. The rainfall is starting to appear in southwest Florida, and will slowly spread northward, most of the rain will likely wind up being in south Florida."
NightWatcher
(39,343 posts)20-35 knot winds, rain all day Thursday. It's been raining most of the day here and forecast tomorrow too before it gets here.
malaise
(269,187 posts)Baclava
(12,047 posts)5 June 2013 8:00 AM EDT Update
Development chances are 50/50 now, but even with the flare up overnight, the circulation is still not defined very well, still development may occur within the next 48 hours before it moves over land in the Big Bend or Eastern Panhandle, likely tomorrow night.
malaise
(269,187 posts)Looks way more organized - this could be serious in terms of rain and possible tornadoes
Now 35mph as well
malaise
(269,187 posts)FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDS
TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SATELLITE
AND SURFACE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION REMAINS POORLY
DEFINED...HOWEVER AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM BEFORE IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY PRODUCED TORRENTIAL RAINS AND FLOODING
OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING
THE COUPLE OF DAYS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM AND ITS EFFECTS CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND IN
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE OR
NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
---------------
Get ready Florida DUers
Baclava
(12,047 posts)AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS ABLE TO IDENTIFY A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IN THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EAST-
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS
FINDING...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WILL INITIATE ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
malaise
(269,187 posts)This is getting serious
Baclava
(12,047 posts)maybe i'll get my truck washed too
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)We get hot. What a world!!!
malaise
(269,187 posts)One of my sisters now - just left a message on her phone - pay attention to TS Andrea