Tropical Storm Dorian Strengthens Slightly, Several Days Away From Land

As forecast, Tropical Storm Dorian has entered an environment that limits how quickly it can strengthen. The maximum sustained winds have increased only slightly in the past 24 hours, due to a balancing act between favorable and unfavorable influences.

As of 11 a.m., Dorian is packing 60 mph winds and is trekking westward at 17mph. It is still days away from any island or land.

Dorian’s cloud pattern has visibly improved, which is the main reason that the peak wind speed assigned to it has increased. Dorian is presently about 2,900 miles east of Miami (or about 7 days). When a storm is this far east, forecasters rely on satellite data for intensity estimates, but as it tracks further west, it moves into range of reconnaissance aircraft that fly directly into the tropical cyclone to gather invaluable data on its position, intensity, central pressure, and structure (see:“The sequester’s worrisome impact on Hurricane Hunters”).

As far as the large-scale environment goes, the ocean temperature under the storm will increase by the end of the weekend, but the wind shear is expected to increase as well — though still not too strong — and the mid-level moisture is forecast to remain relatively low. These factors should combine to curb the intensification rate through the end of the weekend… beyond that, it becomes less certain.



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