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Unemployment 7.4% - lowest since (Original Post) malaise Aug 2013 OP
This is terrible news!!! JoePhilly Aug 2013 #1
Bwaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah - Joe Scum et al have already stated malaise Aug 2013 #3
Mostly because it's only a small part of the story Fumesucker Aug 2013 #7
There should be a lot more focus on income BeyondGeography Aug 2013 #8
stand back....here it comes!!!!! spanone Aug 2013 #9
It's the people who quit looking!!!!!! treestar Aug 2013 #44
and Benghazi FSogol Aug 2013 #61
Bullshit TheMastersNemesis Aug 2013 #2
People have been repeating the same BS about the over inflated UE numbers for months davidpdx Aug 2013 #4
A-a-a-nd right on schedule intaglio Aug 2013 #6
No one wants that PowerToThePeople Aug 2013 #46
Most Of The New Jobs Were Part-Time CrispyQ Aug 2013 #30
The number of part time workers who would prefer full time work bhikkhu Aug 2013 #32
The lowest unemployment rate since December 2008, but if you subtract 100,000, millennialmax Aug 2013 #5
OBAMMY = BUSH = BAD!! BAD!!! BAD!!! TIME TO IMPEACH!!!! Liberal_Stalwart71 Aug 2013 #10
The number of people not in the labor force rose by 240,000 DesMoinesDem Aug 2013 #11
Wouldnt you assume that number to increase as population increases? DCBob Aug 2013 #14
It is expected to increase due to Boomer retirement as well bhikkhu Aug 2013 #34
I'm less interested in the unemployment number than the *employed* number magical thyme Aug 2013 #12
Unemployment insurance eligibility has nothing to do with unemployment status mathematic Aug 2013 #19
Well it still does not include those who have given up looking magical thyme Aug 2013 #25
It most certainly does include those that have given up looking mathematic Aug 2013 #27
not according to bls.gov. magical thyme Aug 2013 #28
The data report includes that data. mathematic Aug 2013 #37
not included in the UNEMPLOYMENT NUMBER, which is what this thread is about. nt magical thyme Aug 2013 #40
My posts have been about the data reports in general. mathematic Aug 2013 #45
I didn't ask any questions, cliched or otherwise. I responded to the thread's OP. magical thyme Aug 2013 #64
It could be a point lower if the Republicans would get out of the way frazzled Aug 2013 #13
Actually quite remarkable considering the effects of the sequester. DCBob Aug 2013 #15
Yep but there are folks here who will go out of their way to demonstrate that this is malaise Aug 2013 #16
It is...so many people dropped out of the labor force. Safetykitten Aug 2013 #18
Part-time work Safetykitten Aug 2013 #17
Sure ... all lawn mowing and paper routes. JoePhilly Aug 2013 #29
Some are postal workers nadinbrzezinski Aug 2013 #38
Some work in medical technology. JoePhilly Aug 2013 #39
So it is not all paper routes nadinbrzezinski Aug 2013 #42
No fan of Reagan ... JoePhilly Aug 2013 #49
I know that if I had the capacity to do it nadinbrzezinski Aug 2013 #51
This... Safetykitten Aug 2013 #20
May be wrong howicit Aug 2013 #21
Please expand... Agschmid Aug 2013 #36
People who have stopped looking for work are not considered unemployed. lumberjack_jeff Aug 2013 #52
Thanks. Agschmid Aug 2013 #53
That is why they adjust the figures seasonally BainsBane Aug 2013 #63
And this.... Safetykitten Aug 2013 #22
And more non-propaganda... Safetykitten Aug 2013 #23
And.... Safetykitten Aug 2013 #24
There are lots of jobs! Most people have two of them! leftstreet Aug 2013 #26
Yes indeedy they do! Safetykitten Aug 2013 #31
The propaganda continues mick063 Aug 2013 #33
Here's the employment to (working age) population ratio. Lowest since 1984. lumberjack_jeff Aug 2013 #35
Silly facts. Safetykitten Aug 2013 #41
Wages are dropping AgingAmerican Aug 2013 #43
Yes they are. Safetykitten Aug 2013 #47
Why is this relevant? mathematic Aug 2013 #48
If your labor is one of your primary assets, then yes, a job is "an intrinsically good thing". lumberjack_jeff Aug 2013 #50
We're not going to agree on this... mathematic Aug 2013 #56
A distinction without a difference. lumberjack_jeff Aug 2013 #58
Interestingly, I consider work to have intrinsic value mathematic Aug 2013 #62
Looks like the 30 hour week is here.... dkf Aug 2013 #54
The work-week should be 36 hours and overtime should be paid at double-time. lumberjack_jeff Aug 2013 #55
That won't work because the overworked are salaried. dkf Aug 2013 #57
Non sequitur. lumberjack_jeff Aug 2013 #60
If unemployment was said to be at 7.4%...... NCTraveler Aug 2013 #59

JoePhilly

(27,787 posts)
1. This is terrible news!!!
Fri Aug 2, 2013, 08:39 AM
Aug 2013

I'm not sure why its terrible ... but I'm pretty sure some folks will be along soon to explain why.

Fumesucker

(45,851 posts)
7. Mostly because it's only a small part of the story
Fri Aug 2, 2013, 09:04 AM
Aug 2013

And one that gives the appearance at least of being gamed to make actual conditions on the ground in Peoria or Pittsburgh appear better than they are. And focusing on it ignores anyone that hasn't yet got themselves a decent job even though they might have some shitty part time situation twenty five miles away at slightly over minimum wage with random on call scheduling.

For a lot of us it's becoming obvious that there aren't going to be enough decent jobs for everyone, the business of providing basics for human existence, food, shelter, clothing and so forth have been automated to the point only a relatively small percentage of people are employed doing that sort of thing. The rest of employment comes from the "extras" and with an ever smaller percentage of people having more of the money the "extra" market is not expanding as fast as the population is.

I understand where you're coming from and I have a really strong urge to sarcasm myself, my dad was thirty second degree black belt in sarcasm so I learned early. On the other hand a n00b coming into DU could easily take either one of us the wrong way, Poe's law and all. That certainly happens to me from time to time although I sometimes feel I almost get misunderstood more when I'm not sarcastic.

BeyondGeography

(39,374 posts)
8. There should be a lot more focus on income
Fri Aug 2, 2013, 09:36 AM
Aug 2013

Capital has been disproportionately absorbing productivity gains; there is enough wealth even with the growth of McJobs to make lives better than they are:

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/13/sunday-review/americas-productivity-climbs-but-wages-stagnate.html?_r=0

From 1973 to 2011, worker productivity grew 80 percent, while median hourly compensation, after inflation, grew by just one-eighth that amount, according to the Economic Policy Institute, a liberal research group. And since 2000, productivity has risen 23 percent while real hourly pay has essentially stagnated.


I know my firm sets bullshit Lucy-with-the-football margin goals to keep salaries stagnant even when we grow the bottom line a point or two. The extra money goes to the owners. It happens everywhere and it sucks.

treestar

(82,383 posts)
44. It's the people who quit looking!!!!!!
Fri Aug 2, 2013, 12:12 PM
Aug 2013

And the jobs are all low paying!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11111111111

The BLS has cooked the books and is lying!!!!!!111111

Everyone I know is unemployed!

We are doomed!

There I saved several people some keystrokes.

 

TheMastersNemesis

(10,602 posts)
2. Bullshit
Fri Aug 2, 2013, 08:40 AM
Aug 2013

By the time you leave out people who quit looking and all the workers thrown off of unemployment insurance you will see it go down, when it is probably actually going up.

On the other hand we probably lost more full time good jobs that were replaced by below poverty level jobs. Like the Titanic we keep sinking yet the captains of business keep saying everything is fine.

davidpdx

(22,000 posts)
4. People have been repeating the same BS about the over inflated UE numbers for months
Fri Aug 2, 2013, 08:53 AM
Aug 2013

The thing about that is most of it has been coming from Fox News. The truth is as the UE comes down people start looking so a good number of those who stopped have been absorbed back into the UE rate which could be part of the reason it hasn't dropped very quickly over the last few months.

As for the amount of lower paying jobs, yes that is true. The US has been moving toward a service economy for a long time, way before Obama was elected. Many service sector jobs pay less. Part of that has to do with how people spend their money.

It has been almost a full 5 years since the economic collapse of the banks (one place many jobs were lost). The truth is it will take much longer to dig ourselves out of the hole.

 

PowerToThePeople

(9,610 posts)
46. No one wants that
Fri Aug 2, 2013, 12:14 PM
Aug 2013

At least no real members.

But, we are unwilling to tow-the-party-line when doing so just helps the fascist movement do decimate the average American citizen.

bhikkhu

(10,718 posts)
32. The number of part time workers who would prefer full time work
Fri Aug 2, 2013, 11:03 AM
Aug 2013

is 8 million, roughly. Which is a lot, but still only a small percentage of the total employed workforce of 145 million or so.

The amount of part time work is vastly and repeatedly overstated by those who minimize any kind of good news that makes it look like we have actually been having an economic recovery for the last 4 years, since the stimulus package was passed.

 

millennialmax

(331 posts)
5. The lowest unemployment rate since December 2008, but if you subtract 100,000,
Fri Aug 2, 2013, 08:55 AM
Aug 2013

divide by pi, read a few pages of Ayn Rand, and get the stomach flu, you'll see that the numbers aren't really what they seem and Obama has made things worse.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
14. Wouldnt you assume that number to increase as population increases?
Fri Aug 2, 2013, 10:15 AM
Aug 2013

A better metric would be percentage.

bhikkhu

(10,718 posts)
34. It is expected to increase due to Boomer retirement as well
Fri Aug 2, 2013, 11:08 AM
Aug 2013

...as the numbers leaving the workforce due to retirement are a little closer to the numbers entering the workforce for the past few years. Another dampening factor on labor participation rates is college; more people in college, and more time spent in college.

 

magical thyme

(14,881 posts)
12. I'm less interested in the unemployment number than the *employed* number
Fri Aug 2, 2013, 10:08 AM
Aug 2013

that is closer to where the truth is.

And then, how many of those employed are parttime when they need fulltime to survive? Or are juggling multiple parttime jobs (me)? And where are wages at, and where are they headed? And how many older people are eligible to retire but forced to keep working because they can't afford to, which prevents younger people from getting their jobs?

That single unemployment number means zip when many are no longer listed because they fell off the unemployment roles.

mathematic

(1,439 posts)
19. Unemployment insurance eligibility has nothing to do with unemployment status
Fri Aug 2, 2013, 10:22 AM
Aug 2013

For the billionth time.

Have you even tried looking up the answers to your questions? Part time for economic reasons, multiple job holders, weekly wages, and employment by retirement age are ALL included in today's data report.

 

magical thyme

(14,881 posts)
25. Well it still does not include those who have given up looking
Fri Aug 2, 2013, 10:28 AM
Aug 2013

I'm simply replying to the OP which is announcing the unemployment number, which means nothing to me.

I look at the other numbers.

Interesting to note that I am at least the 3rd poster to mention falling off the unemployment roles, as almost an afterthought to the crux of my post, but the first and only you choose to give a snotty reply to

Have a nice day.

mathematic

(1,439 posts)
27. It most certainly does include those that have given up looking
Fri Aug 2, 2013, 10:37 AM
Aug 2013

More generally, you can determine how many people want a job and do not have one on this table: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm

There are 224K fewer people that want a job and do not have one this month than there was last month.
There are 1.2M fewer people that want a job and do not have one this month than there were a year ago.

ETA: I responded to your post because 1) you asked a lot of questions that are, in fact, answered by the data report you're being critical of and 2) I am not sufficiently convinced that those other posters are not "left wing caricature" type trolls and I try to avoid posters like that.

 

magical thyme

(14,881 posts)
28. not according to bls.gov.
Fri Aug 2, 2013, 10:46 AM
Aug 2013

Persons are classified as unemployed if they do not have a job, have actively looked for work in the prior 4 weeks, and are currently available for work. Actively looking for work may consist of any of the following activities:
Contacting:
An employer directly or having a job interview
A public or private employment agency
Friends or relatives
A school or university employment center
Sending out resumes or filling out applications
Placing or answering advertisements
Checking union or professional registers
Some other means of active job search

Passive methods of job search do not have the potential to result in a job offer and therefore do not qualify as active job search methods. Examples of passive methods include attending a job training program or course, or merely reading about job openings that are posted in newspapers or on the Internet.

Workers expecting to be recalled from temporary layoff are counted as unemployed, whether or not they have engaged in a specific jobseeking activity. In all other cases, the individual must have been engaged in at least one active job search activity in the 4 weeks preceding the interview and be available for work (except for temporary illness).


http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm

mathematic

(1,439 posts)
37. The data report includes that data.
Fri Aug 2, 2013, 12:05 PM
Aug 2013

It looks like you were referring to the unemployment number, which does not include people that are not in the labor force, by definition (helpfully cited in your post I'm replying to).

I'm not sure what the problem is since that data IS included in the report, like I said. People not in the labor force that want a job, even if they haven't looked for one, is reported right there in that table I linked to above.

mathematic

(1,439 posts)
45. My posts have been about the data reports in general.
Fri Aug 2, 2013, 12:12 PM
Aug 2013

Since you were asking questions about things other than the unemployment number that are answered in the data report, you'll have to forgive me for thinking we were talking about the data report.

Aw, fuck it. You're just asking clichéd "critical" questions, with no intention of getting answers in an effort to make it seem like things suck and are getting worse. I know it. You know it. The whole DU knows it.

 

magical thyme

(14,881 posts)
64. I didn't ask any questions, cliched or otherwise. I responded to the thread's OP.
Fri Aug 2, 2013, 10:57 PM
Aug 2013

My responses have been to and about the thread's OP. I am not interested in the unemployment number. I look at other numbers for economic indicators. Period.

I don't have to forgive you for anything. You still haven't responded to why you chose to pick on me, of the numerous people who gave similar responses. What the fuck ever.

frazzled

(18,402 posts)
13. It could be a point lower if the Republicans would get out of the way
Fri Aug 2, 2013, 10:09 AM
Aug 2013

and let all the economic and job-producing legislation go through.

malaise

(269,054 posts)
16. Yep but there are folks here who will go out of their way to demonstrate that this is
Fri Aug 2, 2013, 10:17 AM
Aug 2013

meaningless

 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
42. So it is not all paper routes
Fri Aug 2, 2013, 12:10 PM
Aug 2013

Glad we established that.



There is more...some folks (see the food service strikes) feed families on part time, minimum wage work.

I hate the restructuring of the US economy...it started with Reagan.

JoePhilly

(27,787 posts)
49. No fan of Reagan ...
Fri Aug 2, 2013, 12:26 PM
Aug 2013

But I'd suggest that the restructuring of the US economy is a constant.

The industrial revolution ... the information age ...

The members of my family, for a number of generations, lived in Philly. I grew up in the same house that my father grew up in. I left in the 80s. Most of my high school friends still live there.

I've lived in 4 different states. I changed states for education and career.

I suspect that my kids might do the same.

Perhaps even change not only states, but countries ... as the global economy continues its restructuring.

 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
51. I know that if I had the capacity to do it
Fri Aug 2, 2013, 12:33 PM
Aug 2013

I would move to another country right now.

And yes, it is the federal policies on NSA and the restructuring, and the fact that we are straggling behind other countries in things like health care and education.

But particularly the inverted totalitarianism, which in it's present form started with Clinton.

I am not blind to the warts...the US has way too many of them right now.

 

Safetykitten

(5,162 posts)
20. This...
Fri Aug 2, 2013, 10:23 AM
Aug 2013

"When the payroll report was released last month, the world finally noticed what we had been saying for nearly three years: that the US was slowly being converted to a part-time worker society. This slow conversion accelerated drastically in the last few months, and especially in June, when part time jobs exploded higher by 360K while full time jobs dropped by 240K. In July we are sad to report that America's conversation to a part-time worker society is not "tapering": according to the Household Survey, of the 266K jobs created (note this number differs from the establishment survey), only 35% of jobs, or 92K, were full time. The rest were... not"

ZH

howicit

(2 posts)
21. May be wrong
Fri Aug 2, 2013, 10:23 AM
Aug 2013

I am sure that this 7.4% does not include the people whose unemployment has run out. Also it is summer time and in this area there are lots of seasonal jobs that end anytime from Sept. to Nov. So it is not an accurate figure.

 

lumberjack_jeff

(33,224 posts)
52. People who have stopped looking for work are not considered unemployed.
Fri Aug 2, 2013, 12:49 PM
Aug 2013

This does not imply that they would reject an economically justifiable job offer.

People whose unemployment has run out often fall into this category.

BainsBane

(53,035 posts)
63. That is why they adjust the figures seasonally
Fri Aug 2, 2013, 02:03 PM
Aug 2013

That is what seasonally adjusted means. BLS explains how they figure these numbers. You would do well to go to their website and read about the methodology to correct your misunderstanding. It has nothing to do with unemployment. There are two surveys: one of employers (job numbers), and one of households (unemployment percentage).

 

Safetykitten

(5,162 posts)
22. And this....
Fri Aug 2, 2013, 10:24 AM
Aug 2013

"One of the overlooked components of today's NFP report is that in July the one industry that posted a clear decline in workers was none other than Construction, the sector which is expected to carry the recovery entirely on its shoulders once Bernanke tapers and ultimately goes away, which saw a decline of 6,000 workers: the largest job loss by industry in the past month. Perhaps there isn't quite as much demand as some would propagandize? But most notably, and disturbingly, is that the industry with the most job gains in July was also the second lowest paying one: retail, which saw an addition of 47,000 jobs: far and away the biggest winner in the past month. The worst paying industry - temp jobs - rose by 8K in July following a revised 16K increase in June. And the reason for the swing in July: the plunge in another low-quality job group: Leisure and Hospitality, which increased by only 23K in July following 57K additions in June."

 

Safetykitten

(5,162 posts)
24. And....
Fri Aug 2, 2013, 10:27 AM
Aug 2013

"What is worse however is that the change in average hourly earnings dropped -0.1% on expectations of a 0.2% increase and down from the 0.4% increase last month."

leftstreet

(36,108 posts)
26. There are lots of jobs! Most people have two of them!
Fri Aug 2, 2013, 10:29 AM
Aug 2013

HELP!! Where's the number indicating how many people no longer qualify for unemployment benefits?

 

mick063

(2,424 posts)
33. The propaganda continues
Fri Aug 2, 2013, 11:07 AM
Aug 2013

It is comforting to see some folks challenge it and of course if the administration was Republican, there would be a round chorus of moral indignation.

Republicans campaign on jobs. Democrats must differentiate themselves by campaigning on worker pay, benefits, and safety. If it is "the economy stupid", then touting crummy jobs as victory reduces Democrats to a Republican levels. This is why half the country cannot tell the difference between the parties. Because when it comes to jobs, there is no difference.


Thirty two trillion of "trickle down" hidden offshore, twice the federal deficit. There is money to improve our collective standard of living. I will cease further comment so that people may ponder this awhile.

 

lumberjack_jeff

(33,224 posts)
35. Here's the employment to (working age) population ratio. Lowest since 1984.
Fri Aug 2, 2013, 11:12 AM
Aug 2013

If the employment situation were the same as it was in 1999, nearly 10 million more people would be employed.



When your only tool is a pom-pom, all your problems begin to look like pep rallies.

http://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet

mathematic

(1,439 posts)
48. Why is this relevant?
Fri Aug 2, 2013, 12:20 PM
Aug 2013

I don't consider a job an intrinsically good thing. (Some people do).

Consider the hypothetical: 30% employment to population ratio but 1% unemployment rate, using the official definitions. Is this bad? Good? Neither? I'd say it was a pretty awesome situation.

The employment to population ratio can be useful to get a broader understanding of the employment picture but ultimately what matters is the unemployment rate and other measures of lack of employment (like people not in the labor force that want jobs).

 

lumberjack_jeff

(33,224 posts)
50. If your labor is one of your primary assets, then yes, a job is "an intrinsically good thing".
Fri Aug 2, 2013, 12:32 PM
Aug 2013

The unemployment rate is a horrendously poor metric. If wages go down, (as they are) then people drop out of the workforce (as they are). This is driving the unemployment rate down which you are considering a good thing.

You appear to be suggesting that the perfect world would be one in which no one works because wages are too low to make it worth anyone's while.

For those of us who buy food with our wages, this isn't an academic exercise.

mathematic

(1,439 posts)
56. We're not going to agree on this...
Fri Aug 2, 2013, 12:53 PM
Aug 2013

since we have opposing views on the intrinsic value of a job (which I consider distinct from labor or work).

In that hypothetical I posed, people aren't working by choice. Wages aren't high enough to get them to work because they have enough of what they want without working for those wages. It was meant to illustrate that the employment to population ratio by itself doesn't account for the change in work preferences of the population and the work preferences of the population is better viewed through unemployment and its not-in-the-labor-force counterpart.

It seems a bit of a non sequitur but I don't see how this is anything other than an academic exercise no matter how one buys their food: wages, government assistance, investment income, or other. Unless you mean that you're proposing some sort of campaign to specifically raise the employment to population ratio, regardless of unemployment?

 

lumberjack_jeff

(33,224 posts)
58. A distinction without a difference.
Fri Aug 2, 2013, 01:03 PM
Aug 2013

Work in exchange for compensation = job. Without compensation, the labor is valueless.

By what logical process can you defend the idea that 6% of the US workforce stopped working - permanently - in 2008 through conscious, collective and simultaneous choice?

Yes. My campaign would raise the employment to population ratio, regardless of unemployment. Unemployment is a secondary measure. As people find the workplace more attractive, more people begin looking for work which drives up unemployment. If average wages were to increase 10% through government action, the unemployment rate would rise, (as people reentered the workforce) leading policymakers to all kinds of counterproductive activities.

At best it is a incomplete measurement, at worst (as it is being used here) it is a compass needle which points south.

mathematic

(1,439 posts)
62. Interestingly, I consider work to have intrinsic value
Fri Aug 2, 2013, 01:52 PM
Aug 2013

So, no, labor without compensation is not valueless.

Nor am I arguing that 6% of the workforce decided to stop working permanently. Some decided to stop working for an extended temporary period (to go to college, for example), some decided to stop working permanently, and many of them didn't decide to stop working at all, which is why we have relatively high unemployment. The issue is you can't tell just by looking at the employment to population ratio. When I look at the employment to population ratio I see two demographic trends, women fully entering the workforce and boomers hitting their peak employment, modified with the effects of economic expansions and recessions.

You seem to be saying that you want wages to be high enough that people that don't want to work now would want to work. I have no problem with that. However, unemployment and its effects are not about averages. The least employable people and the communities they live in would still suffer the effects of high unemployment even if average wages and the employment to population ratio were higher. I think unemployment itself and its not-in-the-laborforce counterpart are the things to be reduced, letting the employment to population ratio end up where it ends up.

 

dkf

(37,305 posts)
54. Looks like the 30 hour week is here....
Fri Aug 2, 2013, 12:50 PM
Aug 2013

Unfortunately it comes with what used to be 20 hour a week pay thanks to inflation and the low minimum wage.

We are stratifying into the overworked and the underpaid/unemployed. Very Dangerous.

 

lumberjack_jeff

(33,224 posts)
55. The work-week should be 36 hours and overtime should be paid at double-time.
Fri Aug 2, 2013, 12:52 PM
Aug 2013

This only requires two small corrections to FLSA.

 

lumberjack_jeff

(33,224 posts)
60. Non sequitur.
Fri Aug 2, 2013, 01:07 PM
Aug 2013

It would work because people wouldn't accept managerial positions that required a cut in pay.

... and hourly people are plenty overworked.

 

NCTraveler

(30,481 posts)
59. If unemployment was said to be at 7.4%......
Fri Aug 2, 2013, 01:04 PM
Aug 2013

If unemployment was said to be at 7.4%, with Reaganomics being fought for by the White House, Low hour and paying jobs becoming the norm, and an R was in the White House; DU would stand with one voice.

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