Obama strong vs. beleaguered GOP foes

By: Celinda Lake and Daniel Gotoff and Kristin Pondel

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Underscoring the depth of the damage done to the GOP Presidential brand, President Obama draws majority support against his potential Republican challengers, and for the first time this cycle, even leads an unnamed, generic Republican candidate for President (49% Obama to 45% for the generic Republican). Specifically, President Obama bests a generic Republican candidate among a range of battleground constituencies, including independent women (+17 Obama), voters who prioritize jobs (+28) and the economy (+11), blue-collar women (+16) and blue-collar men (+6), voters who disapprove of the job being done by Congress (+6), and in toss-up states (+13).

In head-to-head matchups, President Obama earns majority support against both Mitt Romney (52% Obama to 43% Romney) and Rick Santorum (53% Obama to 43% Santorum). Nearly nine-tenths of Obama’s support in both trial heats is strong. The divisions within the GOP are taking a toll. Now, nearly half (44%) of Republican primary voters do not see Romney as their best chance of capturing the presidency. In a contest where character matters, narrow majorities of independents and voters living in states that have an upcoming primary or caucus have an unfavorable opinion of Romney (51% unfavorable, each). Meanwhile, former Senator Rick Santorum has surged back into a statistical tie with Romney as the first choice of Republican primary voters (36% Santorum, 34% Romney) and has the advantage of being the sole Republican candidate for President who voters view net favorably (39% favorable to 36% unfavorable) though just barely. The continued reluctance of Republicans to coalesce around Romney has resulted in the tree-enthusiast’s loss of over half of the Republican primaries and caucuses held to date, not to mention negative personal ratings among a majority of all likely voters in the country (38% favorable to 51% unfavorable). Among women voters, Santorum’s favorable and unfavorable ratings are equal, Romney is net-negative by 11 points, and Gingrich is disqualifiable with a 41-point net-negative rating.

The swing among independent voters is similarly spectacular, as these perennial battleground voters now align themselves with President Obama. When pitted against Santorum and Romney, Obama beats both men by solid double-digit margins among independents (+16 and +12, respectively). Obama’s leads among independent women are even more pronounced; the President boasts a whopping 28-point lead among independent women against both Santorum and Romney. As mentioned, blue-collar voters—another key swing constituency—are also supporting the President, especially blue-collar women who decisively choose Obama over Romney and Santorum (+22 and +16, respectively).

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Democrats and the President still have work to do translating general positive job performance ratings to specifics, especially on the economy. At the same, this election is a choice. The President and Democrats have key issue advantages on which to build in the coming months. Not since news of Osama bin Laden’s demise has a solid majority of voters approved of the job the President is doing. Today, 53% of voters approve of the President’s job performance. Specifically, voters are most complimentary of the job the President is doing when it comes to standing up for the middle class (+17) and foreign policy (+15). When juxtaposing the two Parties on a range of issues, Democrats mirror the President’s lead on standing up for the middle class (+23) and vault to leads on a host of other issues, including Social Security and Medicare (+11), health care (+5), taxes (+4), and jobs (+2). In the history of the Battleground poll, this marks the first time that voters afford Democrats the advantage over Republicans on taxes. This only underscores the clear appeal of Democrats’ message of leveling the playing field for working- and middle-class Americans, specifically when it comes to tax fairness. This is an important lesson, as success in November will require more than just immunization from public anger toward Congress and the self-immolation of the GOP. In order to further capitalize on their existing advantages, Democrats must connect their central message of economic fair play very directly to voters’ top priorities: job creation, economic growth, and the rebuilding of the American middle class.

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