General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsDow at 13,000. Time to get out?
Not this high since before the collapse. Dodd/Frank will protect us, right?
Selatius
(20,441 posts)As long as interest rates are at historic lows, those who can will borrow money and use it to invest in the stock market. It's the reason the DOW is as high as it is.
The most probable way the bubble will pop is if something in Europe happens, such as a formal declaration that Greece is in default. That alone would do tremendous damage to the Euro, and the chaos would soon spread through the markets and cross the ocean.
Nye Bevan
(25,406 posts)I think the European situation is under control. I see the biggest risk as Middle East unrest causing oil prices to spike, and pushing gas prices to $6 a gallon or more.
Selatius
(20,441 posts)The ISDA, the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, would determine if a credit event is actually a default. They, so far, haven't declared Greece to be in default. Had they done so, a whole ton of banks across the globe would be forced to pay out on CDS contracts that they don't have enough money to cover. It would be 2008 all over again.
Nye Bevan
(25,406 posts)But strangely enough, it doesn't feel like "2008 all over again". The market is actually up today.
It's worth noting that prognostications of doom on DU do not have a 100% success rate.
lacrew
(283 posts)Here's my theory: Many pension funds have bylaws pertaining to the rating of their holdings. As nations and municipalities suffer downgrades in their bond ratings, that money has to find another home...and right now that means the stock market.
So, essentially there has been a shift from investing in bonds, towards stocks.
But, most clear thinking people have a nagging feeling that this has to be a bubble. If it goes up real fast, its probably over-valued, and due for a fall.
Problem is, where do you put your money?
no_hypocrisy
(46,231 posts)valid organic business (profits) or based on the stocks being sold a lot that would boost the numbers on Dow Jones.
JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)Fumesucker
(45,851 posts)JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)I get the sense that the doom and gloom folks are not happy regardless of which way the market, or the economy, moves.
LanternWaste
(37,748 posts)I think we're always going to have the prophets on street corners wearing sandwich-boards that reads "the end is nigh!!!", ignore context, and apply bumper-sticker philosophies to complex issues (too many hack-authored, badly written, dystopian-based science fiction novels is my hunch.)
It seems that the position isn't reserved only for Sunday morning televangelists begging for money anymore.
Fumesucker
(45,851 posts)And possibly those who are working at a job for a fraction of what they made some years ago, they might view such exuberance as less than completely rational.
denverbill
(11,489 posts)Given the fact that nobody can make any money putting their money in the bank, even earning a few percent in dividends beats putting money in the bank.
There's no law to say it's all or nothing. Why not pull 10% out now, another 10% if the market goes up another 10%, etc. Then reinvest 10% if it drops 10%, etc.
siligut
(12,272 posts)Take a little money off the table. This, after going over the current state of affairs.
Nye Bevan
(25,406 posts)Decide what percentage of your portfolio you want to keep in stocks, and maintain this percentage with quarterly rebalancing without obsessing over short term ups and downs.
raouldukelives
(5,178 posts)spanone
(135,898 posts)raouldukelives
(5,178 posts)about helping to maximize corporate servitude or scorched earth environmental policies it's always good to stop supporting and profiting from it.
onenote
(42,779 posts)JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)When the DOW moved from 6500 up to 10,000, only to drop back to 9800 ... THAT was proof around here that the double dip was starting.
Then, the DOW went up again, past 11,500, only to pull back to 10,500 ... and THAT was proof around here that the double dip was starting.
Now that the DOW hit 13k, that is bad news ... and if/when it pulls back to 12,500 or so ... THAT will be the next signal of the end of the world.
DU is not the best place to look for investment advice.
yellowcanine
(35,702 posts)If you are happy with the gains you have and want to lock them in, absolutely. But only if you don't need your money to grow, because interest rates are still pretty crappy. OTOH if you are committed to leaving a certain portion in the stock market long term, no. Or maybe some combination of the two. Move some money out, locking in those gains, and leave the rest in. I have my own retirement money at 60% stocks and 40% annuities and plan to keep it that way for some time to come, maybe back off the stocks a bit when I retire, depending on what interest rates are.
Before you start moving money around, you should find out what the cost of that step is in terms of broker's fees, etc. If you can do it without paying fees, you can be a bit more aggressive about moving in and out of stock based on whether stocks are going up or down. But if there is a significant cost you may be better off just adjusting the ratio of new contributions from time to time and leaving the money already in as is.
JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)sarcasmo
(23,968 posts)YES!