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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsNow It Looks Like The White House May Have Overestimated Syrian Gas Deaths
http://www.businessinsider.com/white-house-may-have-overestimated-syrian-gas-deaths-2013-9WASHINGTON (Reuters) - One of the most precise and dramatic details cited by theObama administration as proof that Syrian forces used chemical weapons in an August 21 attack was the death toll, which an official U.S. government assessment put at 1,429 people, including 426 children.
The number, first released by the White House on August 30, was underscored by Secretary of State John Kerry in a fiery indictment of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, describing videos of what he said were victims of the attack, which Syria denies.
"Instead of being tucked safely in their beds at home, we saw rows of children lying side by side sprawled on a hospital floor, all of them dead from Assad's gas and surrounded by parents and grandparents who had suffered the same fate. The United States Government now knows that at least 1,429 Syrians were killed in this attack, including at least 426 children," he said.
Some U.S. congressional sources are now casting doubt on those figures.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/white-house-may-have-overestimated-syrian-gas-deaths-2013-9#ixzz2eltLaVr7
idwiyo
(5,113 posts)Never bloody mind Kerry's endorsement of fake 'expert' Elizabeth OBagy.
Anyone with even 2 functioning braincells left could smell the stench of bullshit. Number of dead vs number of survivors to start with.
Attempts to spin Médecins Sans Frontières statements. The precise bloody numbers, down to the last child. Attempts to stop inspection. Etc., etc., etc.
Bloody despicable warmongering arseholes even had enough nerve to trawl YouTube for videos of dead kids, FFS
xchrom
(108,903 posts)white house numbers like they were hard fact.
idwiyo
(5,113 posts)NealK
(1,870 posts)dballance
(5,756 posts)Fantastic Anarchist
(7,309 posts)But you did forget to mention that there was no proof, if even their numbers were accurate, that Assad's forces committed the act.
That was the elephant in the room.
Now, they're saying, "See, Assad admits he has chemical weapons! We were right!!!"
Well, no one was arguing that! Everyone knew he had them. That was not the question. The question was did he use them? And if so, do you have proof?
The attempt at conflation was mind-boggling and infuriating. I've lost all respect for Kerry (not that I had much anyway). And Obama, well, it's just a tragic fall from grace. I should have known that the elite picks the rulers of this country, and if Obama wasn't going to play ball, then he wasn't going to be president. Obama chose to play ball.
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)If they have to lie to support their case, then their case isn't very strong. Only gullible people bought in to the bullshit, like the "faith-based" Group.
warrant46
(2,205 posts)LuvNewcastle
(16,847 posts)Myrina
(12,296 posts)n/t
marshall
(6,665 posts)What's one zero at the end of a number?
Skidmore
(37,364 posts)1400 or even less than 10. The issue for me is eliminating the stockpiles of this type of weapon in the world and arriving at accords between nations to not use them. Next step should be a push to eliminate the manufacture and use of landmines and for us to join in the the agreement not to use them.
Half-Century Man
(5,279 posts)Outlaw them, obey the law.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)pampango
(24,692 posts)Warren Stupidity
(48,181 posts)Where we kill or killed people right and left because a bunch of saudi jihadists attacked New York and Washington.
pampango
(24,692 posts)people are repressed and attacked either by their own dictator or a foreign power. Understandably people don't take kindly to repression or violence directed at them, no matter what the source.
treestar
(82,383 posts)The potential and the fact the rest of the world considers this over the line even in war is the point. Those making an issue of this never mention the exact number of deaths it would take for it to be a problem.
Bluenorthwest
(45,319 posts)nations who refuse to sign it. 161 signatories. We are the only 'western democracy' to insist upon the use of landmines. Diana, Princess of Wales was a big early spokesperson for the push to eliminate, she's been dead for years and the US still refuses to give up landmines. They blow kids to bits, years after the war is ended.
To speak as though there is not a movement to ban mines and that we need to start one is spin of the worst sort,
http://www.icbl.org/
Skidmore
(37,364 posts)Just pointing to the need to push to eliminate as many weapons systems as we can in this world. Since there is an established movement in this area, with this push to eliminate the stockpiles of chemical weapons would be a good time to bring to the forefront. If people must fight each other, bust it back until they must actually face one another rather than from a distance with no faces in front of them.
Progressive dog
(6,905 posts)to disperse the gas or by the cover up. The Syrians should get a pass on the numbers then.
Barack_America
(28,876 posts)People are determined to cling to every last possible thread, aren't they?
Accept that Assad's regime gassed his own people and you STILL don't want any military intervention! I'm sorry if that makes you feel badly about yourself. Deal with it. *
The logical contortions people are willing to go through around here to avoid dealing with their consciences on this issue are embarrassing and aggravating.
*not directed at you, directed at those chiming in to agree with this OP
former9thward
(32,028 posts)The UN said they did. Or do they get a pass since they are al Queda controlled? http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/05/us-syria-crisis-un-idUSBRE94409Z20130505
MIC has a figure for every aspect of its agenda
rug
(82,333 posts)JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)Doesn't look like it.
JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)And this part ...
And this part ...
Classified intelligence tools then were used to confirm the provenance of the videos and to ensure that bodies were not counted twice, the official said. The official noted that U.S. intelligence had more resources to gather information than human rights or other non-governmental groups, which had smaller death tolls.
Now, I understand that here on DU, we all know that the US government lies about everything so we can have an invasion of Syria. That's a fact.
And so clearly, we accept lower estimates of the deaths even though there is no description whatsoever of how those lower numbers were determined (like those of the French, and other non-governmental groups). Those numbers are lower, so we accept them, "as-is".
But the interesting thing here is that information about how our government does its calculations is actually provided. And, our government even admits that their number might be higher because its possible that some of the dead were killed by conventional weapons, used at the same time as the chemical weapons.
We're so sure that the government is lying, that we don't even notice that there is an actual recognition by our government of an over estimate, and a description of what would cause it.
Clearly, the MIC determined (probably through focus groups) that the number 1429 was sufficient to create the necessary level of outrage with the American people.
That's got to be what happened.
former9thward
(32,028 posts)Yeah it called lying by omission.
joshcryer
(62,276 posts)The reality is that they likely got the number from adding up various sources and getting rid of overlap. I added up the best I could from MSF, local non-MSF clinics, and the videos (France watched the videos and counted the bodies; ruling out duplicates), and came up with something around 1300, just by doing the math.
The fact is that so many people died at MSF indicates to me the event was far larger than anyone wants to imagine. Think about it this way, if 100 people wind up going to one hospital after a major incident, do you then assume that that hospital is the only hospital to take them in? No, in the case of large scale deadly events people wind up going to dozens of hospitals. And a lot of them die in the place of the event.
MSF had three hospitals / makeshift clinics total. An average of 100 died at each. Now imagine a large magnitude event. You're going to go where ever you can. Imagine each and every clinic getting 100. That's only 14 clinics to get this number. That's not counting those who weren't breathing and couldn't get to a clinic and had their Muslim burial rights done (24 hours).
KittyWampus
(55,894 posts)2 Groups In Syrian Give Figures Of Damascus Casualties As 1000+
And here are two reports from 2 other organizations that comport with 1000+ casualties, the first one is IN GHOUTA.
1. The Unified Medical Revolutionary Office of Eastern Ghouta reported that 1,302 were killed in the attack, about 70 percent of whom were women and children, al-Baik said.
At least 9,838 others were wounded, he said.
2. In a Saturday report, the Foundation for Defence of Syrian Human Rights claimed the regime used chemical weapons 28 times between July 13th and August 21st. There were 23 incidents in and around Damascus, most recently the attack in Eastern and Western Ghouta, which killed a total of 1,845 and injured 9,924, it said.
http://www.setimes.com/cocoon/setimes/xhtml/en_GB/features/setimes/features/2013/08/28/feature-04
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)More typical BS from the Admin.
KittyWampus
(55,894 posts)HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)Which group hired the fake PHD woman as a PR flunky, and the admin put her out front?
Barack_America
(28,876 posts)You are arguing that everyone who died made it to an MSF hospital and died there?
Impossible. Many people died in their homes, which were then bombed by conventional weapons, damaging their corpses and making it uncertain which of Assad's bombs got them first. Which was the entire purpose of the subsequent barrage of conventional weapons.
joshcryer
(62,276 posts)In fact, those who made it to MSF were still alive by that time, 3 hours after the attack. That means many many more were killed in the actual attack. I don't think it's 1400+, I don't think it's 1500+, I think 15-20 years from now we'll find mass graves and the true magnitude of the event will be known.
Of course, this is all irrelevant, right, because people still dispute who shot the weapons. So why care to explain simple probability to them?
When the UN comes out with its death estimates, which will be 1400+ (it's already been hinted at), then I am sure that the number will be downplayed even more.
ProSense
(116,464 posts)that the article is more ridiculous speculation.
A second source, who is sympathetic to White House policy, said caveats administration officials attached to the 1,429 death total were of sufficient magnitude to cause the source to avoid citing the figure.
A third source said that administration officials confronted pointed questions from members of Congress about the accuracy of the numbers and acknowledged that they "couldn't be sure" about the cause of death for some people counted as victims of chemical poisoning.
An administration official familiar with the briefings denied that there had been any doubts as to how the 1,429 bodies were counted; a second official asserted that Capitol Hill officials had heard what they wanted to hear because so many legislators were opposed to Obama's plan.
You get the sense that people think there is a difference if only 500 people, not 1,500 were killed. When the following article was used to question the numbers, people ignored this part:
<...>
"The U.S. took this high number from one part of the Syrian opposition that is supported by the U.S. government," Abdul-Rahman said. "We don't trust them."
<...>
Syria's political and military opposition is severely fragmented. The U.S. figure more closely matches reports by pro-opposition organizations such as the Local Coordination Committees and the United Revolutionary Medical Office in eastern Ghouta, a Damascus suburb hit by the alleged chemical attack.
The latter group said it had documented at least 1,302 deaths, about two-thirds of which were women and children. That figure was cited by the U.S.-based Syrian Support Group, which has a federal license to funnel aid to Syrian rebels.
http://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast/la-fg-syria-casualties-20130904,0,681916.story
The opposition is fragmented, and there is no doubt a power struggle.
At least 9,838 others were wounded, he said.
2. In a Saturday report, the Foundation for Defence of Syrian Human Rights claimed the regime used chemical weapons 28 times between July 13th and August 21st. There were 23 incidents in and around Damascus, most recently the attack in Eastern and Western Ghouta, which killed a total of 1,845 and injured 9,924, it said.
http://www.setimes.com/cocoon/setimes/xhtml/en_GB/features/setimes/features/2013/08/28/feature-04 (h/t KittyWampus)
Clearly, Kerry didn't pull the numbers out of thin air. Other groups have reported similar casualties. Even if one goes with the number reported by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a group aligned with the rebels that accuses the government of the attacks, it is still a deadly chemical attack launched by Assad.
Background on SOHR.
The UK based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) is an information office opposed to the Government of Syria. There was conflict between Rami Abdulrahman,[1] a Syrian expatriate, and Mousab Azzawi about who rightfully ran the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.[2][3] Abdulrahman's UK based SOHR has been cited by virtually every western news outlet since the beginning of the uprising.[1][3]
The UK based SOHR is run out of a two-bedroom terraced home in Coventry, UK, by one person, Rami Abdulrahman (or Rami Abdul Rahman, or Rami Abdelrahman),[4] a Syrian Sunni Muslim who also runs a clothes shop. After three spells in prison in Syria, Abdulrahman came to Britain in 2000 fearing a longer, fourth jail term.[1]
In a December 2011 interview with Reuters, Abdulrahman said the observatory has a network of 200 people and that six of his sources had been killed. Abdulrahman reports on events in the Syrian uprising, including the deaths of civilians, rebels and army defectors (which he calls "martyrs" [5] and government soldiers.[6] SOHR's methodology for counting civilian victims has been questioned,[7] as the organisation includes opposition combatants among the number of civilian casualties, as long as these are not former members of the military.[8]
<...>
SOHR has been accused of selective reporting, covering only violent acts of the government forces against the opposition for the first two years of its existence. Although critics concede that its newsgathering has become less partial, the perception is it "continues to defend Islamic extremists to avoid losing support among rebel forces".[11]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_Observatory_for_Human_Rights
The LCCS:
The Local Coordination Committees of Syria (Arabic: لجان التنسيق المحلية في سوريا?: LCCSyria[3] or LCCs[4]) consist of a network of local groups that organise and report on protests as part of the Syrian uprising.[2][5] In June 2011, the network was described by The New York Times as beginning to "emerge as a pivotal force" in Syria.[1] As of August 2011, the network supported civil disobedience and opposed local armed resistance and international military intervention as methods of opposing the Syrian government.[6]
<...>
LCCSyria is financed by donations from individual supporters.[7] This is further facilitated by the "Adopt a Revolution" initiative.[8] Furthermore the Office for Syrian Opposition Support, which itself was founded by the United States Department of State and Foreign and Commonwealth Office[9] and is funded by the Friends of Syria Group, provides "material support" and "training assistance" to the LCCs.[10]
Human rights journalism
Rami Nakhle, who helps LCCSyria from exile in Lebanon, said that media activities documenting protests were the network's first main activity. The Syrian human rights lawyer Razan Zaitouneh, winner of the 2011 Sakharov Prize[11] and the 2011 Anna Politkovskaya Award,[2] has documented human rights in Syria for the network.[2] The network's text and photographic reports of injuries and deaths of protestors have been used by CNN,[5] Al Jazeera English,[12] The Guardian[13] and The Washington Post.[14][15] The network publishes reports on its own website and on Facebook.[4]
On 1 February 2012, LCCSyria criticised the international and Arab community as having been "unable to take any decision that contributes to stopping the cycle of violence in Syria". It estimated the number of deaths in the civil war is more than 100,000.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Local_Coordination_Committees_of_Syria
Bolo Boffin
(23,796 posts)while the other half trumpet possible deaths being counted from the bombardment after the chemical attack as proof the US is lying about the death count.
And the beat goes on...
Sunlei
(22,651 posts)Romulox
(25,960 posts)Now it looks like we won't get to bomb anybody at all. Thanks alot guys...
Proud Liberal Dem
(24,416 posts)However, even one death by chemical warfare is too many IMHO and there does not seem to be a doubt that some people were directly killed by it
former9thward
(32,028 posts)According to the UN. So should we strike them too? http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/05/us-syria-crisis-un-idUSBRE94409Z20130505
gopiscrap
(23,761 posts)Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)Order to keep your gang running game. I read post complaining about drone strikes but when Assad gases 1400+ you want to protect him, what is the deal with this bunch. Shameful, the propaganda needs to stop.
KamaAina
(78,249 posts)As soon as O said 1,429, the M$M, and the alarmingly large pro-war contingent at DU, picked it up and ran with it like a loose football. Never mind that the French doctors who were actually there said 281.
NealK
(1,870 posts)warrior1
(12,325 posts)grahamhgreen
(15,741 posts)HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)What is an acceptable collateral casualty figure? Do you think it will be more than one?
msanthrope
(37,549 posts)As the story of the UN report unfolds I think you'll have plenty of reason and opportunity to revise this OP.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/10308480/Assad-guilty-of-crimes-against-humanity-says-UN-chief-Ban-Ki-Moon.html
eridani
(51,907 posts)And we still have no standing to "punish" any other country for what we have supported in other countries for a long time.
Smarmie Doofus
(14,498 posts)... actually happened and the casualty count was as high as possible.... so eager were they to find a pretext to involve the US in that war.
General acceptance of the high-end estimates would facilitate the next steps: "planin' and schemin'".
Ghoulish, perhaps; but nonetheless true.
Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/13/us-syria-crisis-intelligence-idUSBRE98B1C220130913
^snip^
"Nobody who has looked at the intelligence thinks this number is way off," a senior U.S. official said.
"That's what the number was that day. We know 1,400 people were killed. As we get new information, the number could change," the senior U.S. official added.
French intelligence says deaths from the gas attacks could be as high as 1,500, but it reported confirmed deaths from video evidence of 281. Estimates of gas attack deaths by British intelligence, the London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights and non-governmental group Doctors without Borders fall within a range of 322 to 355.