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peoli

(3,111 posts)
Sun Sep 22, 2013, 07:54 PM Sep 2013

'Big One' is due, quake experts say

Sitting on a major fault line, Oregon is "like an eight-and-a-half-month pregnancy, due any time now" for a major earthquake, a geologist with the Oregon Office of Emergency Management told an overflow crowd Friday in Medford.

"We're in the zone, and we'd darn well better get ourselves ready for it," said Althea Rizzo, geology hazard coordinator for OEM. "A lot of you may have moved here from California to escape them, but the fact is, Oregon is earthquake country."

A major earthquake would cripple transportation on Interstate 5 as bridges and overpasses collapse from two to four minutes of ground shaking, possible very severe, with stressful aftershocks for weeks.

"It's going to shake here," she said. "Single-family homes will bounce off their foundations. Landslides will cause transportation between I-5 and (Highway) 101 on the coast to be cut off for three to five years."

http://www.mailtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20130921/NEWS/309210314

42 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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'Big One' is due, quake experts say (Original Post) peoli Sep 2013 OP
The Juan De Fuca is a Subduction fault, similar to that which they have off the coast of Japan. Warren DeMontague Sep 2013 #1
Whew! I thought this was going to be about the Bay Area. Link Speed Sep 2013 #2
Do you have any idea what an event like this would do to regional economic stability? 1000words Sep 2013 #7
I DO!! I DO!! Pick me, pick me!! A HERETIC I AM Sep 2013 #38
Of course I do, I was here in '89 Link Speed Sep 2013 #42
Geez. Planning to move to co or Oregon. Co has floods seabeyond Sep 2013 #3
They're both large states, of course bhikkhu Sep 2013 #9
i grew up in calif. there was a while there i was in every earthquake the day after i moved seabeyond Sep 2013 #16
Like i said, it's a different fault and a different dynamic. Warren DeMontague Sep 2013 #18
geology was my favorite college class. surprised the crap out of me. i find it totally fascinating seabeyond Sep 2013 #27
Mt. Tabor in Portland is the only active volcano in a city in the U,S, Egalitarian Thug Sep 2013 #36
the worst, by far, is the weird naked people. Warren DeMontague Sep 2013 #37
I see moldy, naked people... Egalitarian Thug Sep 2013 #41
well, we have floods, lightning strikes, blizzards, avalanches and earthquakes, but CO is still a niyad Sep 2013 #15
but... no tornadoes. ok, seldom. i heard about one of those recently and was another seabeyond Sep 2013 #17
oh, we do have tornadoes. think about the one in weld county a few years ago. had one go niyad Sep 2013 #19
We are pricing property in Oregon right now.. SoCalDem Sep 2013 #33
that is exciting. seabeyond Sep 2013 #40
Earthquakes are completely unpredictable treestar Sep 2013 #4
I don't think they are completely unpredictable, but not predictable in any sense of the long term 1-Old-Man Sep 2013 #6
That was Italy starroute Sep 2013 #14
Italy has a weird legal system it seems. n-t Logical Sep 2013 #21
Who told you that? They ARE predictable. For instance... cherokeeprogressive Sep 2013 #11
LOL, good one. Now all you need to do it narrow down the time frame for us! :-) Logical Sep 2013 #20
Yeah, I was waitin' for that. Always gotta be one in the crowd... a doubter. cherokeeprogressive Sep 2013 #24
Wow, I have to admit you are probably correct! At least 99%. n-t Logical Sep 2013 #26
Yikes! Oregon is my favorite west coast state to visit. So beautiful. JaneyVee Sep 2013 #5
I've spent more than half my life living in high EQ risk zones. Warren DeMontague Sep 2013 #8
Yeah, we're pretty much screwed here. Arugula Latte Sep 2013 #10
Oh, dear! Here I am, a long-time Oregonian, happy as a clam, and it's all about to go boom! classof56 Sep 2013 #12
Not to worry. Igel Sep 2013 #23
Oct 17 is the Great Oregon Shakeout statewide preparedness day! Bluenorthwest Sep 2013 #13
"Due" in geologic timeframes could be next week, or could be 10,000 years... SidDithers Sep 2013 #22
This one's on an accelerated program. Igel Sep 2013 #25
There's a fairly good sight for those interested in PNW seismic activity adirondacker Sep 2013 #28
Southern California is considered to be overdue for a big one mnhtnbb Sep 2013 #29
Statistical nonsense. There is no due, let alone overdue. longship Sep 2013 #30
Actually laundry_queen Sep 2013 #31
Oops, they got the math wrong. laundry_queen Sep 2013 #32
Shit, I have a relative that lives there davidpdx Sep 2013 #34
well, I'm ready to rock and roll.....I just want to be with my family when neverforget Sep 2013 #35
Edgar Cayce predicted the Great Lakes will drain into the Gulf of Mexico. B Calm Sep 2013 #39

Warren DeMontague

(80,708 posts)
1. The Juan De Fuca is a Subduction fault, similar to that which they have off the coast of Japan.
Sun Sep 22, 2013, 08:18 PM
Sep 2013

Unlike the San Andreas, which is a slip-strike, I believe is the term. As in, the two plates are moving against each other in opp. directions, as opposed to one sliding under the other.

Short answer is, yes, the Pacific NW is vulnerable to extremely strong quakes.


 

Link Speed

(650 posts)
2. Whew! I thought this was going to be about the Bay Area.
Sun Sep 22, 2013, 08:24 PM
Sep 2013

I just had the bottom of my pool tiled and would hate for it to get cracked.

 

1000words

(7,051 posts)
7. Do you have any idea what an event like this would do to regional economic stability?
Sun Sep 22, 2013, 08:37 PM
Sep 2013

But hey ... your pool will be fine.

A HERETIC I AM

(24,380 posts)
38. I DO!! I DO!! Pick me, pick me!!
Mon Sep 23, 2013, 05:08 AM
Sep 2013

"Do you have any idea what an event like this would do to regional economic stability?"

Well, it's sure to make work for pool tile people.

Sorry. Had to.

 

Link Speed

(650 posts)
42. Of course I do, I was here in '89
Mon Sep 23, 2013, 02:53 PM
Sep 2013

Does everything have to be serious?

Lock-step is not my idea of a good time.

 

seabeyond

(110,159 posts)
3. Geez. Planning to move to co or Oregon. Co has floods
Sun Sep 22, 2013, 08:25 PM
Sep 2013

And fracking issues. Oregon is ready to blow. Lol. Decades I haven't heard anything. Now this

bhikkhu

(10,725 posts)
9. They're both large states, of course
Sun Sep 22, 2013, 08:46 PM
Sep 2013

If you're not on a floodplain or beside running water, chances are you'll be fine. If you're a few miles from a faultline, you'll probably feel an earthquake, but that's enough to make damage unlikely. There's a faultline about 2 miles from my house (brick, built in the 20's), but a decent sized earthquake a few years ago didn't do any harm to the neighborhood.

 

seabeyond

(110,159 posts)
16. i grew up in calif. there was a while there i was in every earthquake the day after i moved
Sun Sep 22, 2013, 09:42 PM
Sep 2013

to a place or the day before i moved away from a place. bishop, castroville/watsonville, san diego. i felt like i was a damn magnet for earthquakes.

thinking of oregon the other day i was saying. well, at least i never hear of major earthquakes there. then i started thinking firther. why not? they are coastal. same range. they should have them like calif. but they dont. meh.... sounds good

then here this article is.

was a funny to me.

Warren DeMontague

(80,708 posts)
18. Like i said, it's a different fault and a different dynamic.
Sun Sep 22, 2013, 09:49 PM
Sep 2013

It's kind of fascinating, when you step back from the freaky aspect. California has the San Andreas and affiliated smaller faults, which are basically the pacific and the n american plates sliding past each other... I think north america is going north, pacific south (but it may be the other way around) ... Then you have this smaller plate up here. The juan de fuca, which is sliding under the n american plate. So okay, the rock from one plate goes under the other, gets hot, and rises to the surface, which forms...



Volcanoes.

Its kind of neat to think about. But these subduction faults lead to larger earthquakes that are less frequent. So you might be talking about a VERY large quake (think Japan, 2011) although it would probably have an epicenter somewhere out off the coast, not on land per se.

 

seabeyond

(110,159 posts)
27. geology was my favorite college class. surprised the crap out of me. i find it totally fascinating
Sun Sep 22, 2013, 10:22 PM
Sep 2013

thanks for the info. makes sense.

 

Egalitarian Thug

(12,448 posts)
36. Mt. Tabor in Portland is the only active volcano in a city in the U,S,
Mon Sep 23, 2013, 04:33 AM
Sep 2013

Earth quakes, the Yellowstone caldera, volcanoes, tsunamis, gigantic tidal waves, Japanese radiation, mutant zombie bears, or just masses of weird naked people on a rampage, Portland is doomed!

Warren DeMontague

(80,708 posts)
37. the worst, by far, is the weird naked people.
Mon Sep 23, 2013, 05:04 AM
Sep 2013

I was just trying to have a nice quiet dinner out with my wife and YIKES




or should I say bikes.

niyad

(113,612 posts)
15. well, we have floods, lightning strikes, blizzards, avalanches and earthquakes, but CO is still a
Sun Sep 22, 2013, 09:23 PM
Sep 2013

beautiful state (well, if you can ignore the reichwingnutjobs) but, there are a lot of good progressives here who would welcome you with open arms.

 

seabeyond

(110,159 posts)
17. but... no tornadoes. ok, seldom. i heard about one of those recently and was another
Sun Sep 22, 2013, 09:45 PM
Sep 2013

wtf??? lol

i will take an earthquake and blizzard over a tornado. i can so do without an avalanche. something i do not want to experience.

co spr is still top on the list for different reasons.

niyad

(113,612 posts)
19. oh, we do have tornadoes. think about the one in weld county a few years ago. had one go
Sun Sep 22, 2013, 09:59 PM
Sep 2013

right down manitou avenue a few years ago--have had them here and out to the eastern plains. but definitely not tornado alley!

a number of DU'ers are here in the springs, would love to have more.

SoCalDem

(103,856 posts)
33. We are pricing property in Oregon right now..
Mon Sep 23, 2013, 03:37 AM
Sep 2013

My husband retires in April & we are outtahere..

We have it narrowed down to :

Coos Bay
Bend
Cottage Grove
Albany

and about a zillion other places

Nothing north of Salem

 

seabeyond

(110,159 posts)
40. that is exciting.
Mon Sep 23, 2013, 09:36 AM
Sep 2013

i will sometime. if not this year, then i am clear in three. i am looking at eugene and salem. i spent some days in eugene this summer and really like the feel. but salem, i get much more in my house for the money than eugene.

i am going to have to check out cottage grove and albany. i hear good things about coos bay.

i am open and flexible.

thrilled for you.

1-Old-Man

(2,667 posts)
6. I don't think they are completely unpredictable, but not predictable in any sense of the long term
Sun Sep 22, 2013, 08:31 PM
Sep 2013

If memory serves correctly there were some people or a person on either China or Japan who found themselves in deep doo-doo for their failure to make a public warning when the signs of an impending quake were at hand. Sorry to be so vague about it but its just form memory.

starroute

(12,977 posts)
14. That was Italy
Sun Sep 22, 2013, 09:04 PM
Sep 2013
http://www.nbcnews.com/id/44596501/ns/technology_and_science-science/t/scientists-trial-failing-predict-italian-quake/

9/20/2011

Six Italian scientists and one government official were set to go to trial in Italy on Tuesday on charges of manslaughter for not warning the public aggressively enough of an impending earthquake that killed more than 300 people in 2009.

While such a trial is unlikely on U.S. soil, experts say, American geologists and seismologists are watching closely, surprised at a legal system that would attempt to criminalize something as uncertain as earthquake prediction.

"Our ability to predict earthquake hazards is, frankly, lousy," said Seth Stein, a professor of Earth sciences at Northwestern University in Illinois. "Criminalizing something would only make sense if we really knew how to do this and someone did it wrong."
 

cherokeeprogressive

(24,853 posts)
11. Who told you that? They ARE predictable. For instance...
Sun Sep 22, 2013, 08:52 PM
Sep 2013

I predict Southern California will have a huge earthquake, with many large and unnerving aftershocks. I'm positive I'll be proven 100% correct.

See how easy that is?

 

cherokeeprogressive

(24,853 posts)
24. Yeah, I was waitin' for that. Always gotta be one in the crowd... a doubter.
Sun Sep 22, 2013, 10:09 PM
Sep 2013

I'll get back to ya on that one.

Short-term prediction: Not tomorrow.

Mid-term prediction: Not next month.

Long-term prediction: Yes.

Warren DeMontague

(80,708 posts)
8. I've spent more than half my life living in high EQ risk zones.
Sun Sep 22, 2013, 08:40 PM
Sep 2013

It's a worry, but you just stay aware and stay prepared. That's the key.

 

Arugula Latte

(50,566 posts)
10. Yeah, we're pretty much screwed here.
Sun Sep 22, 2013, 08:47 PM
Sep 2013

I've got water, some canned stuff, flashlights, candles, etc., but, man, if the subduction zone goes all bets are off.

classof56

(5,376 posts)
12. Oh, dear! Here I am, a long-time Oregonian, happy as a clam, and it's all about to go boom!
Sun Sep 22, 2013, 08:55 PM
Sep 2013

Actually, I now live on the east side of the Cascades, and our town has an emergency plan in place to deal with all those refugees who flee over the mountains when the Big One hits. Gonna be mighty interesting! It has to do with the subduction zone a few miles off the Pacific Coast, and while I'm willing to deal with the aftermath of all that shakin' going on, so far I'm not too worried. Survived a few quakes when I lived west of the Cascades, in a town not too far from Mt. St. Helens, where the ash fell hot and heavy after she blew her top a few times. Had some involvement with Office of Emergency Management when they used to do "Trojan Drills" in preparation for a meltdown at the Trojan Nuclear Plant. That's shut down now, so I guess OEM needs something to do with their time. Why not dire warnings about Killer Earthquakes?

For all my fellow Oregonians in Coos, Curry, Douglas, Lane, Lincoln, Tillamook and Clatsop Counties over there on the coast, stay safe! And remember our state's motto--She Flies With Her Own Wings. Keep your parachutes handy!

Meanwhile, peace, blessings and congrats for living in the most beautiful and amazing state in the nation!

Igel

(35,366 posts)
23. Not to worry.
Sun Sep 22, 2013, 10:08 PM
Sep 2013

The last time the subduction zone slipped was in the late 1700s.

Massive quake in the NW.

And a humongous tsunami that hit Japan (and other nearby areas) a few hours later.

 

Bluenorthwest

(45,319 posts)
13. Oct 17 is the Great Oregon Shakeout statewide preparedness day!
Sun Sep 22, 2013, 09:02 PM
Sep 2013

Millions of people worldwide will practice how to
Drop, Cover, and Hold On at 10:17 a.m. on October 17* during Great ShakeOut Earthquake Drills!

Oregonians can join them today by registering for the 2013 Great Oregon ShakeOut. Participating is a great way for your family or organization to be prepared to survive and recover quickly from big earthquakes– wherever you live, work, or travel.
http://shakeout.org/oregon/

Igel

(35,366 posts)
25. This one's on an accelerated program.
Sun Sep 22, 2013, 10:11 PM
Sep 2013

300-600 years, for the most part over the last couple thousand years.

It's been a bit over 300, so Oregon's up to bat. Perhaps this year. Perhaps in 200 years. Shorter's a bit more likely than longer.

mnhtnbb

(31,408 posts)
29. Southern California is considered to be overdue for a big one
Sun Sep 22, 2013, 10:33 PM
Sep 2013

according to experts.

http://www.dvidshub.net/news/105283/earthquake-specialist-shares-insight-about-californias-next-big-one#.Uj-nOz8QNG0


I was in college at UCLA when the 1971 quake hit. Scared the bejesus out of my roomie and me. That was only 6.6 magnitude.
I cannot imagine the damage a 7+ will do.

longship

(40,416 posts)
30. Statistical nonsense. There is no due, let alone overdue.
Sun Sep 22, 2013, 10:48 PM
Sep 2013

Earthquakes are not like library books. They happen exactly when they happen and not one second sooner. To say that a region is due (or even more ignorantly, overdue) for an earthquake shows utter ignorance and naïveté. And it's utterly stupid to claim that an area is overdue for...

Dun! Dun! Dunnnnn!
THE BIG ONE
Dun! Dun! Dunnnnn!
(Gotta have dramatic chords for that one.)

Only people ignorant of math and statistics say things like that. (And copy editors who want to make a splash with a provocative article title.)

Stoooopid!

laundry_queen

(8,646 posts)
31. Actually
Mon Sep 23, 2013, 01:05 AM
Sep 2013

there are some faults that let go with fairly consistent intervals. If a fault slips every 100 years or so with a 7.0 average strength, for several thousand years then after 150 years of nothing, a geologist may say that particular fault is overdue.

Some say the Cascadia subduction zone is overdue because on average the interval is 300-500 years. Well, it's been 300 years so it's not OVER due, but it could possibly be due. It's not stupid to say so. They had been talking about Japan overdue for a large tsunami for at least 10 years before the 2011 earthquake - they were right.

laundry_queen

(8,646 posts)
32. Oops, they got the math wrong.
Mon Sep 23, 2013, 01:12 AM
Sep 2013
"Partial quakes happen on an average of every 240 years. The last one was in 1700, so it's been 213 years."

I believe that would be 313 years.

But yeah, when Cascadia goes, it isn't going to be pretty for anyone along the west coast. I've heard the average interval (as per some documentary I saw about the intersection of faults around Vancouver Island) is 300-500 years, so it's not like it's super-overdue. I'd be more worried if it had been 513 years since the last one. Although, the article mentions partial quakes, so I suppose a slip on one part of the fault is what they mean, so if 240 years is average for those, then yeah, it's overdue. However 37% chance in 50 years isn't that big. But it IS going to happen. Eventually. And it's going to be a mess.

davidpdx

(22,000 posts)
34. Shit, I have a relative that lives there
Mon Sep 23, 2013, 04:18 AM
Sep 2013

Given it is not very accessible via transportation other than car, and even then given the prediction of the transportation system collapsing it would be nearly impossible to get there from overseas. I'm crossing my fingers it doesn't happen for another 20 years.

neverforget

(9,437 posts)
35. well, I'm ready to rock and roll.....I just want to be with my family when
Mon Sep 23, 2013, 04:30 AM
Sep 2013

it happens......at least on the same side of the river.....

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