General Discussion

xchrom

(108,903 posts) Mon Oct 14, 2013, 08:18 AM Oct 2013

What If a Flu Breaks Out When CDC Can’t Track It?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-13/what-if-a-flu-breaks-out-when-cdc-can-t-track-it.html

As director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention during the last government shutdown, in 1995-1996, I can attest to the very real potential for unnecessary pain, suffering and death when the work of public-health officials is curtailed.

As a consequence of the current shutdown, the CDC has been required to furlough two-thirds of its staff, leaving only 4,000 people to conduct vital public-health responsibilities. This translates into reduced protection for Americans. Here are just a few examples:

-- Surveillance for detecting and responding to infectious diseases is weakened: Nine of the 10 Global Disease Detection Centers have significantly reduced monitoring for diseases such as Ebola and new pathogens such as Middle East respiratory syndrome and H7N9, which could threaten the U.S.

-- CDC doesn’t have the personnel to monitor, track and provide guidance about seasonal flu activity, even as the season is beginning. The virus claims thousands of lives in the U.S. every year, and that’s when the CDC is fully staffed.

-- Although state public-health investigators can detect disease outbreaks, the CDC’s ability to conduct cross-state collaboration and lab work for linking these outbreaks is severely diminished.

21 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

What If a Flu Breaks Out When CDC Can’t Track It? (Original Post) xchrom Oct 2013 OP

Oh whatever. A little flu never killed anyone. progressoid Oct 2013 #1

Sure. That's a states'-rights issue. Orsino Oct 2013 #19

Twitter, Facebook, CVS and Walgreens will know first FarCenter Oct 2013 #2

sounds like a bunch of horseshit. nt xchrom Oct 2013 #4

Why? Sounds reasonable to me. GreenStormCloud Oct 2013 #5

DIY epidemiology analysis xchrom Oct 2013 #7

Except many people with a common cold use flu remedies. Ikonoklast Oct 2013 #10

Could Facebook Warn You Before You Get the Flu? FarCenter Oct 2013 #6

it sounds like the USA is forgetting the melm00se Oct 2013 #9

Yep. BluegrassStateBlues Oct 2013 #12

Epidemiologists studying exactly that seem to disagree with you, but hey. (nt) Posteritatis Oct 2013 #15

epidemiologists know what the fuck they're looking at, but hey...nt xchrom Oct 2013 #20

Thank you for agreeing with me! (nt) Posteritatis Oct 2013 #21

It's already breaking out. lonestarnot Oct 2013 #3

Beat me to it! graywarrior Oct 2013 #8

That's actually Cancer. Ikonoklast Oct 2013 #11

Ooohhh, sorry! graywarrior Oct 2013 #13

You say Tea Party', I say ' Cancer'...both are virulent blights on humanity. Ikonoklast Oct 2013 #14

NOW we're getting clear! graywarrior Oct 2013 #17

I'd describe the Tea Party more in terms of projectile Tourette's. (nt) Posteritatis Oct 2013 #16

Maybe we can ask the WHO to step in. kentauros Oct 2013 #18

progressoid

(49,999 posts)

1. Oh whatever. A little flu never killed anyone.

Reply to xchrom (Original post)

Mon Oct 14, 2013, 10:06 AM

Oct 2013

er...wait...

Orsino

(37,428 posts)

19. Sure. That's a states'-rights issue.

Reply to progressoid (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 14, 2013, 02:27 PM

Oct 2013

We don't want the federal government shoving some vaccine down our throats, do we?

FarCenter

(19,429 posts)

2. Twitter, Facebook, CVS and Walgreens will know first

Reply to xchrom (Original post)

Mon Oct 14, 2013, 10:49 AM

Oct 2013

All you have to do is analyze social media comments and drugstore sales of flu remedies to detect and follow an outbreak. This is actually faster at detection than CDC.

xchrom

(108,903 posts)

4. sounds like a bunch of horseshit. nt

Reply to FarCenter (Reply #2)

Mon Oct 14, 2013, 11:31 AM

Oct 2013

GreenStormCloud

(12,072 posts)

5. Why? Sounds reasonable to me.

Reply to xchrom (Reply #4)

Mon Oct 14, 2013, 11:38 AM

Oct 2013

On Twitter & FB people talk about what is happening in their daily lives.

All sales at stores are scanned into the computer nowdays and have been for over 20 years. So the cooperate headquarters knows very quickly when & where sales of flu meds are rising. It is reasonable to assume that people buy flu meds when they get the flu. Most people don't go to a doctor when they have the flu, they just tough it out. So it is entirely reasonable that sales data would reflect flu outbreaks.

xchrom

(108,903 posts)

7. DIY epidemiology analysis

Reply to GreenStormCloud (Reply #5)

Mon Oct 14, 2013, 01:17 PM

Oct 2013

Ikonoklast

(23,973 posts)

10. Except many people with a common cold use flu remedies.

Reply to GreenStormCloud (Reply #5)

Mon Oct 14, 2013, 01:42 PM

Oct 2013

Because they think one is the same as the other, they confuse a cold with getting influenza, and think the medicines used to fight one also works on the other.

FarCenter

(19,429 posts)

6. Could Facebook Warn You Before You Get the Flu?

Reply to xchrom (Reply #4)

Mon Oct 14, 2013, 01:12 PM

Oct 2013

Google Flu Trends, which debuted in 2008, is more analytic in its reporting, using anonymized, "aggregated Google search data to estimate current flu activity around the world in real time." In other words, someone doesn’t feel well, so they turn to the web and Google terms like “flu symptoms” or “fever.” The search engine giant is then able to input these queries into a chart, and monitor their fluctuations. One advantage Google Flu Trends and other online health networks have over traditional flu-monitoring agencies like the Center for Disease Control is the immediacy and geographic comprehension of their updates. The CDC will provide more in-depth reports, but data is usually generated one region at a time, and on a weekly basis.

http://www.policymic.com/articles/22016/could-facebook-warn-you-before-you-get-the-flu

melm00se

(4,996 posts)

9. it sounds like the USA is forgetting the

Reply to xchrom (Reply #4)

Mon Oct 14, 2013, 01:33 PM

Oct 2013

could be accurate.

Perhaps it should be tested: CDC data vs. Social media vs. sales data.

Don't be so quick to discount other, non-traditional data sources.

BluegrassStateBlues

(881 posts)

12. Yep.

Reply to xchrom (Reply #4)

Mon Oct 14, 2013, 01:44 PM

Oct 2013

The flu spreads fast, but tweets spread faster, so health organizations and federal agencies, including the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, are beginning to make use of predictive analytics of social data to monitor emerging situations like this season’s deadly influenza epidemic.

The CDC is among agencies that now utilize social insights gleaned from Google Flu Trends and MappyHealth– predictive tools that take collective web searches and tweets on flu-related symptoms and correlate the data on regional maps. CDC partners with Google and MappyHealth, which won the Department of Health and Human Services NowTrending2012 challenge, to use social media surveillance in the service of public health.

http://fcw.com/articles/2013/01/25/flu-social-media.aspx

Posteritatis

(18,807 posts)

15. Epidemiologists studying exactly that seem to disagree with you, but hey. (nt)

Reply to xchrom (Reply #4)

Mon Oct 14, 2013, 02:02 PM

Oct 2013

xchrom

(108,903 posts)

20. epidemiologists know what the fuck they're looking at, but hey...nt

Reply to Posteritatis (Reply #15)

Mon Oct 14, 2013, 03:40 PM

Oct 2013

Posteritatis

(18,807 posts)

21. Thank you for agreeing with me! (nt)

Reply to xchrom (Reply #20)

Mon Oct 14, 2013, 06:08 PM

Oct 2013

lonestarnot

(77,097 posts)

3. It's already breaking out.

Reply to xchrom (Original post)

Mon Oct 14, 2013, 10:56 AM

Oct 2013

graywarrior

(59,440 posts)

8. Beat me to it!

Reply to lonestarnot (Reply #3)

Mon Oct 14, 2013, 01:18 PM

Oct 2013

It's called the Tea Party!

Ikonoklast

(23,973 posts)

11. That's actually Cancer.

Reply to graywarrior (Reply #8)

Mon Oct 14, 2013, 01:43 PM

Oct 2013

graywarrior

(59,440 posts)

13. Ooohhh, sorry!

Reply to Ikonoklast (Reply #11)

Mon Oct 14, 2013, 01:53 PM

Oct 2013

And yeah, too many dying from that in this day and age.

Ikonoklast

(23,973 posts)

14. You say Tea Party', I say ' Cancer'...both are virulent blights on humanity.

Reply to graywarrior (Reply #13)

Mon Oct 14, 2013, 02:00 PM

Oct 2013

graywarrior

(59,440 posts)

17. NOW we're getting clear!

Reply to Ikonoklast (Reply #14)

Mon Oct 14, 2013, 02:03 PM

Oct 2013

Yes! They are a virus, cancer, a rash, and a pox all in one.

Posteritatis

(18,807 posts)

16. I'd describe the Tea Party more in terms of projectile Tourette's. (nt)

Reply to Ikonoklast (Reply #11)

Mon Oct 14, 2013, 02:03 PM

Oct 2013

kentauros

(29,414 posts)

18. Maybe we can ask the WHO to step in.

Reply to xchrom (Original post)

Mon Oct 14, 2013, 02:03 PM

Oct 2013

I don't know if that would be one of their normal functions, but I would think they'd have the resources to compile such data. We'd just have to hand the reigns over to them for a while. I wonder if that would be enough to push the repubs to avoid a default?

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