Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

srican69

(1,426 posts)
Mon Oct 14, 2013, 01:57 PM Oct 2013

In light of the repeated GOP tantrums .. should the world move away from USD as a reserve currency?



If I am China/Middle east oil exporter - I would seriously consider the idea. Why tie up your money in dollar denominated assets when there is a risk of crazy shit happening?

I would diversify to CAD, EURO, YEN, YUAN etc.

What are the consequences? US would have to increase interest rates in order to make dollar attractive, imports would be more expensive ( exports would be more competitive) .. ie we will have make and sell more stuff to the world in exchange for its oil/ ipods/ clothes other plastic crap.

In other words - we will become like other nations that, unlike us, don't get to run up huge current account deficits without paying a price for it.

Don't count it out .. You may very well see this happen over the next decade or two.




10 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
In light of the repeated GOP tantrums .. should the world move away from USD as a reserve currency? (Original Post) srican69 Oct 2013 OP
If this kind of ruffburr Oct 2013 #1
What I say is only valid if they don't default on our Debt .. if they do - srican69 Oct 2013 #5
I predict - There is going to be tons of research papers and PhDs into pricing the 'tantrum' risk srican69 Oct 2013 #9
Put all your money into CAD NoOneMan Oct 2013 #2
I'm switching to Nuka Cola caps. NuclearDem Oct 2013 #3
BRICS Regimes Forge New World Bank, Call for Global Currency Junkdrawer Oct 2013 #4
The US will have little to say about this. Agnosticsherbet Oct 2013 #6
No single currency can get it done anymore. The Euro is a basket case, China's currency geek tragedy Oct 2013 #7
Interesting thought to ponder 2naSalit Oct 2013 #10
That was actually the only valid Turbineguy Oct 2013 #8

ruffburr

(1,190 posts)
1. If this kind of
Mon Oct 14, 2013, 02:01 PM
Oct 2013

Bullshit politicking keeps up from the R/W,It won't be in a decade or two it'll be next week

srican69

(1,426 posts)
5. What I say is only valid if they don't default on our Debt .. if they do -
Mon Oct 14, 2013, 02:06 PM
Oct 2013

then all bets are off.

Assumming that we weather this (yet another totally made up and unnecessary) crisis - the world will soon begin to expect a 'GOP Craziness' risk premium for their dollar investments ..


the CAPM model will have be modified thus

R = rf + r(GOP) + Beta * market risk premium

srican69

(1,426 posts)
9. I predict - There is going to be tons of research papers and PhDs into pricing the 'tantrum' risk
Mon Oct 14, 2013, 02:10 PM
Oct 2013

because honestly - there is no risk free rate anymore.

 

NoOneMan

(4,795 posts)
2. Put all your money into CAD
Mon Oct 14, 2013, 02:02 PM
Oct 2013

Its only at 90% of its highest, and the government is on the hook for a swarm of mortgages on the verge of defaulting as the country is ready to plunge into a housing disaster that will make the US market crash look like a Mickey Mouse problem.

Junkdrawer

(27,993 posts)
4. BRICS Regimes Forge New World Bank, Call for Global Currency
Mon Oct 14, 2013, 02:04 PM
Oct 2013
The governments and dictatorships ruling over the so-called BRICS countries — Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa — agreed to set up a new world bank that analysts say could further marginalize the increasingly unstable U.S. dollar, possibly helping to eventually dethrone it as the global reserve currency. Meeting in Durban, South Africa, last week at their fifth annual summit, the socialist and communist-minded BRICS regimes also announced their support for creating a new world currency and full-fledged global governance.

Other top priorities outlined in the final agreement, dubbed the “eThekwini Declaration,” include promoting global so-called “sustainable development,” which according to the United Nations entails a radical restructuring of human civilization. Also key on the list of BRICS rulers’ demands: further centralization of power in the hands of the UN, more government meddling in the economy, ramped up attacks on national sovereignty, increased power for Third World dictators on the global stage, and much more.

In February, the premier alliance of socialist political parties, known as the Socialist International, gathered in Portugal for its “Council meeting.” Following the recent Congress held in South Africa amid reports that the ruling communist-oriented regime is involved in genocide, the SI meeting adopted a declaration calling for “a new internationalism, proposing the creation of a new global set of agreements, the restructuring of the WTO to recycle trading profits from severe wage differentials toward authentic global income security, and a new IMF and global currency regime built on the multilateral synthetic ‘bancor’ system conceived by Keynes himself.”

...

http://www.thenewamerican.com/world-news/africa/item/14983-brics-regimes-forge-new-world-bank-call-for-global-currency

Agnosticsherbet

(11,619 posts)
6. The US will have little to say about this.
Mon Oct 14, 2013, 02:06 PM
Oct 2013

It will happen when the rest of the world is ready. We will pay the consequences.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
7. No single currency can get it done anymore. The Euro is a basket case, China's currency
Mon Oct 14, 2013, 02:06 PM
Oct 2013

is subject to devaluation and manipulation at a moment's notice.

Turbineguy

(37,372 posts)
8. That was actually the only valid
Mon Oct 14, 2013, 02:07 PM
Oct 2013

(although still weak) reason for attacking Iraq. When Saddam Hussein switched oil pricing to Euros.

Latest Discussions»General Discussion»In light of the repeated ...