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Douglas Carpenter

(20,226 posts)
Thu Oct 17, 2013, 05:32 AM Oct 2013

As much fun as it might be - neither Ted Cruz or Rand Paul are going to be the GOP nominee in 2016

Whoever the nominee of either major party is - it is going to be someone who at least minimally past muster with the financial powers and with the military and foreign policy establishment. That would be true of any nominee from either party - but even more true with the Republicans. Both Sen. Cruz and Sen. Paul would simply not be acceptable.

The same way that the big boys of the Republican Party knew they had to pull out all stops and go behind the backs of the base and the GOP infotainment industry to stop the kooks from threatening a financial default - they will do the same to make sure that a Ted Cruz or Rand Paul or like minded character does not become the nominee of their party. Of course that still leaves room for someone else pretty crazy. In facts part of the service that a Ted Cruz or Rand Paul does for the right-wing is that they make crazies like a Mike Huckabee or a Rick Santorum look a little less crazy by comparison. This week has been a great blow to the Tea Party and their credibility. However, that wing of the party has been around and influential long before anyone spoke of the "Tea Party" movement. It is certainly not possible for the Republican Party to ditch that wing of the party even if they may distance themselves from the name. It is after all the religious nuts and the Bircher type conspiracy theorist who do make up the bulk of the foot soldiers who actually go out and drag people to the polls. So, we may very well see someone pretty crazy as the GOP nominee in 2016 - but it will not be Ted Cruz or Rand Paul - It may very well be someone who was not centrally involved in this particular fiasco and who is made to look a bit less crazy when put next to a Ted Cruz or a Rand Paul.

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As much fun as it might be - neither Ted Cruz or Rand Paul are going to be the GOP nominee in 2016 (Original Post) Douglas Carpenter Oct 2013 OP
I'm thinking they might push a "clean slate" (as in someone not well known to most voters) oh08dem Oct 2013 #1
that makes sense. if cruz was before, he sure isn't now. i think you are right... ejpoeta Oct 2013 #2
I don't see how anyone can think there is a 'they' there. randome Oct 2013 #3
Well, that's good news! Rhiannon12866 Oct 2013 #4
I've been told by someone who knows a lot of wealthy Republicans LuvNewcastle Oct 2013 #5
he is probably the most electable - but I don't know how the party base will react to that Douglas Carpenter Oct 2013 #6
You're right about that. Every time they're beaten, their first instinct LuvNewcastle Oct 2013 #7
Yes, they do seem to double down on the crazy when they lose, but Nay Oct 2013 #14
Christie is already getting his conservative creeds together. He is doing a great balancing act. kelliekat44 Oct 2013 #8
Paul Ryan or Jeb Bush. FSogol Oct 2013 #9
But wouldn't the religious right/pro life repukes have a problem with Jeb Bush? maryellen99 Oct 2013 #12
They have short memories. FSogol Oct 2013 #13
well, then, they will just have to start their own party rurallib Oct 2013 #10
Bingo! Andy823 Oct 2013 #11
that would be fantastic if they did - but I doubt they will - the big money that backs the Tea Party Douglas Carpenter Oct 2013 #15
Bush/Cheney.. Segami Oct 2013 #16
The Republican base might not go for the establishment guy in 2016. dawg Oct 2013 #17
The problem for "the big boys" is that the base of the GOP is now almost all the crazies, religious, AlinPA Oct 2013 #18

oh08dem

(339 posts)
1. I'm thinking they might push a "clean slate" (as in someone not well known to most voters)
Thu Oct 17, 2013, 05:37 AM
Oct 2013

like Martinez in New Mexico.

ejpoeta

(8,933 posts)
2. that makes sense. if cruz was before, he sure isn't now. i think you are right...
Thu Oct 17, 2013, 05:43 AM
Oct 2013

they are going to want someone who wasn't attached to this fiasco. Maybe the republicans are going to be sitting in a room trying to figure out how to get rid of the tea party folks. Good luck.... cancer is hard to beat. I always worry about people's short memory... If elections were held today these folks would be losing their seats. It is a whole year until the midterms. I sure as hell hope people remember WHO caused this mess.

 

randome

(34,845 posts)
3. I don't see how anyone can think there is a 'they' there.
Thu Oct 17, 2013, 05:47 AM
Oct 2013

It's been 10 years of a GOP downward spiral. Do you really think that after Palin, Romney and now a financial catastrophe that anyone is really 'calling the shots' for the GOP?

"Look at the bones!"
[hr][font color="blue"][center]Birds are territorial creatures.
The lyrics to the songbird's melodious trill go something like this:
"Stay out of my territory or I'll PECK YOUR GODDAMNED EYES OUT!"
[/center][/font][hr]

LuvNewcastle

(16,849 posts)
5. I've been told by someone who knows a lot of wealthy Republicans
Thu Oct 17, 2013, 06:13 AM
Oct 2013

that the big money in the party is already getting behind Christie. They're apparently in it to win it this time.

Douglas Carpenter

(20,226 posts)
6. he is probably the most electable - but I don't know how the party base will react to that
Thu Oct 17, 2013, 06:29 AM
Oct 2013

From their point of view - they tried running a liberal in 2008 and again in 2012 - Why would they want to follow the same failed strategy and nominate another liberal in 2016? From the attitude of the base - they think they were ignored in the last two election cycles - and perhaps they may think that they are not going to take it anymore. However, the events of the past two weeks and past 24 hours have weakened that wing of the party. But that wing of the party makes ups such a major portion of registered Republicans and rank and file foot soldiers - If they revolt against a Christie nomination or are lukewarm to it - it may present a problem for them. But then again there might be enough Republicans who are just sick of loosing that they would back someone like Christie. But the demand to finally run a true believer is going to be there.

LuvNewcastle

(16,849 posts)
7. You're right about that. Every time they're beaten, their first instinct
Thu Oct 17, 2013, 06:44 AM
Oct 2013

is to move further to the right. They're just like Friedman and his economic theory; when the economy crashed in Chile as a result of his policies, he thought that his policies weren't radical enough. Republican policies have been an utter failure and we've watched the country fall apart, but they still think they need to go further to the right.

Nay

(12,051 posts)
14. Yes, they do seem to double down on the crazy when they lose, but
Thu Oct 17, 2013, 12:27 PM
Oct 2013

is there a point at which saner minds come out to vote for relatively sane Republicans? Lots of middle-of-the-road republicans vote for whichever guy has the R behind his name, so IMHO, the pubs will need to get out the vote of the mushy middle, which has lots of mushy Republicans. But it has lots of mushy Democrats, too.

 

kelliekat44

(7,759 posts)
8. Christie is already getting his conservative creeds together. He is doing a great balancing act.
Thu Oct 17, 2013, 06:46 AM
Oct 2013

Coming out against same sex marriage, talking against entitlements...he is setting the stage. And he is the best candidate they have to even have a chance at winning the WH. However, the hard RWingers will forever hold it against him that he made nice to Obama. They will remember ...their hate is that ferocious.

maryellen99

(3,789 posts)
12. But wouldn't the religious right/pro life repukes have a problem with Jeb Bush?
Thu Oct 17, 2013, 09:51 AM
Oct 2013

I would think they wouldnt back Jeb because they think he didn't step in and do enough in the Terri Schiavo case when he was governor of Florida.

FSogol

(45,514 posts)
13. They have short memories.
Thu Oct 17, 2013, 09:56 AM
Oct 2013

They'll run as common sense candidates, attempting to get moderates and right leaning liberals in addition to moderate/non insane repubs. They will have to throw some bones to the insane and religious right of their party.

Andy823

(11,495 posts)
11. Bingo!
Thu Oct 17, 2013, 09:35 AM
Oct 2013

I was thinking the same thing. There are already calls from the tea party talking heads about doing just that, starting their own party. I think Cruz knows he can't win the republican nomination, but a new party of "tea party" loons, just what he needs! He would be the tea party dream come true. Of course he could never win the WH, but like so many others, Ron Paul for example, he could simply go on and on running till he was ready to retire. He could take the tea party nuts away from the Pauls, and unlike Palin, he could continue milking the crazies for years and years.

Douglas Carpenter

(20,226 posts)
15. that would be fantastic if they did - but I doubt they will - the big money that backs the Tea Party
Thu Oct 17, 2013, 04:32 PM
Oct 2013

are politically savvy enough to know what the consequences of that would be. Back in the mid to late 70's when the Reaganite right-wing were maneuvering for control of the GOP - but still meeting a great deal of resistance - there was serious talk of forming a national conservative party since many were convinced that the liberal and moderates had a permanent grip on the GOP - But their big financial powerhouse backers fought it out and took control of the GOP instead. Of course - I really don't think the mainstream of the current GOP will allow the Tea Party to take control of the party. They are right-wingers but they know enough about economics to recognize the disaster the Tea Party would be for the country's financial interest. Unless the Koch brothers and their other big financial backers really are that delusional.

dawg

(10,624 posts)
17. The Republican base might not go for the establishment guy in 2016.
Thu Oct 17, 2013, 04:35 PM
Oct 2013

The monster may have gotten too big for its handlers to control.

AlinPA

(15,071 posts)
18. The problem for "the big boys" is that the base of the GOP is now almost all the crazies, religious,
Thu Oct 17, 2013, 05:55 PM
Oct 2013

teabaggers, gun nuts, anti-government and the rest who are convention attendees who write the platform and do the voting at the conventions. They are also the main base of GOP voters who control the results of their primaries.

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