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Turborama

(22,109 posts)
Fri Oct 18, 2013, 11:09 AM Oct 2013

"Possibility of apocalyptic scenarios" if next month's Fukushima operation goes wrong

Fukushima: why next month is its biggest since 2011

=snip=

Despite recent attempts to demystify the crippled Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant - Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe even visited a few weeks ago - the truth behind what's happening there and what it actually means for locals and the wider world remains difficult to obtain. And there could be worse to come.

In November, Tepco is due to carry out a new operation which could be the most risky since the early dark days of the initial crisis sparked by the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami.

The World Nuclear Report in 2013 said the operation had the potential to cause "by far the most serious radiological disaster to date" if it goes wrong. It warns of the possibility of apocalyptic scenarios including the evacuation of 10 million people in the surrounding area, including Tokyo.

The process involves moving around 400 tonnes of irradiated spent fuel from reactor 4, one of the four reactors damaged in the 2011 disaster. While the other three reactors went into meltdown and are still being cooled with water after other systems failed, the fourth was not operational at the time. However, it still has spent fuel in it which needs to be removed from the now highly unstable structure in case of any kind of earthquake hitting the plant again.

More: http://www.channel4.com/news/fukushima-japan-nuclear-biggest-month-2011
26 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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"Possibility of apocalyptic scenarios" if next month's Fukushima operation goes wrong (Original Post) Turborama Oct 2013 OP
is this what it looks like when you kiss your ass goodbye? I think Tepco went too far. Again. librechik Oct 2013 #1
A much more frightening scenario is a failure to MineralMan Oct 2013 #2
Speaking of which, have you seen/heard the latest news from there? Turborama Oct 2013 #3
Yes. Answered in the other thread. MineralMan Oct 2013 #4
The choice isn't "Let TEPCO do it" or "Do Nothing".... Junkdrawer Oct 2013 #5
Is there a transcript? I don't have time to listen MineralMan Oct 2013 #6
He mentions 2 or 3. Bechtel I've heard of.... Junkdrawer Oct 2013 #7
Well, MineralMan Oct 2013 #9
Hence the need for oversight. Junkdrawer Oct 2013 #10
Bottom line here is that nobody has experience in this particular MineralMan Oct 2013 #11
For THIS particular aspect of the cleanup.... Junkdrawer Oct 2013 #12
I'm not sure anyone is actually qualified in these circumstances. MineralMan Oct 2013 #14
To me, that's like saying "all doctors are alike, so the one who has made a mess of my son's care... Junkdrawer Oct 2013 #17
But, see, you're not telling me which doctor can handle the job. MineralMan Oct 2013 #18
It's a matter of money..... Junkdrawer Oct 2013 #19
It's a matter of many things. MineralMan Oct 2013 #21
I would not be competent to judge a second opinion, frankly. MineralMan Oct 2013 #16
All this may be. Turbineguy Oct 2013 #22
I've watched- ruffburr Oct 2013 #8
Fukushima is a perfect example of why man madokie Oct 2013 #13
I agree that they should all be shut down. MineralMan Oct 2013 #15
+100 freshwest Oct 2013 #23
Let's pay people to bury all nuclear waste in their backyards.. Tikki Oct 2013 #20
I have intimate familial ties with AEC and ERDA they used to be the pinnacle in OSHA safety in Nucle Drew Richards Oct 2013 #24
Ugh, why do I have to be visiting Japan on business in Nov? truthisfreedom Oct 2013 #25
Did I miss the end of the world? FBaggins Sep 2014 #26

librechik

(30,674 posts)
1. is this what it looks like when you kiss your ass goodbye? I think Tepco went too far. Again.
Fri Oct 18, 2013, 11:17 AM
Oct 2013

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MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
2. A much more frightening scenario is a failure to
Fri Oct 18, 2013, 11:19 AM
Oct 2013

remove those fuel rod assemblies. If they are not removed, and another earthquake causes the structure to collapse, the risk of removing the assemblies will seem like a very worthwhile risk.

In planning to remove the assemblies, they are attempting to remove the far more dangerous risk of an unfixable disaster that is far more destructive.

It's important to remember that. Fukushima is already a disaster. It has the potential to be an even worse disaster. Removing the fuel rod assemblies from Reactor 4 will help prevent that worse disaster.

Nuclear power generation is not safe. It cannot be made to be safe.

Junkdrawer

(27,993 posts)
5. The choice isn't "Let TEPCO do it" or "Do Nothing"....
Fri Oct 18, 2013, 11:47 AM
Oct 2013

What's needed is a nuclear ENGINEERING company overseeing the cleanup. The problem is money.

Here's Arnie Gundersen's latest. In this one he mentions a few of the companies qualified for this work:

http://fairewinds.org/media/radio/arnie-interviewed-paradigms-wbkm

MP3
http://fairewinds.org/podpress_trac/web/2786/0/ArnieGundersen.mp3

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
6. Is there a transcript? I don't have time to listen
Fri Oct 18, 2013, 12:01 PM
Oct 2013

to a podcast right now. Or, you could just list the companies for me, if you remember them.

Junkdrawer

(27,993 posts)
7. He mentions 2 or 3. Bechtel I've heard of....
Fri Oct 18, 2013, 12:23 PM
Oct 2013

I think he also says C2 and MH Hill. It's at the 1:30 mark.

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
9. Well,
Fri Oct 18, 2013, 12:47 PM
Oct 2013

Bechtel's history is most certainly one spotted with scandal. The companies historical ties to despotic governments and its poor record with the Boston Big Dig doesn't inspire a lot of confidence in me, really. It's also associate with political support of some pretty questionable candidates. I wouldn't put a lot of confidence in their doing a good job.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bechtel

I can't find the other two, but I think you're probably referring to CH2M Hill, another major US engineering company. They've been involved in the debacle of cleaning up the Hanford, Washington nuclear facility. After reading the below, I'm not sure I trust them to handle Fukushima properly.

On March 7, 2013, the US Department of Justice announced that CH2M Hill's Hanford Group, Inc., had 'committed federal criminal violations, defrauding the public by engaging in years of widespread time card fraud' in its contract with the Department of Energy to manage and clean radioactive waste at the Hanford Nuclear Site in Washington State.[35] The federal government alleged that two CH2M Hill Hanford employees charged the Department of Energy for hundreds of purchases from companies owned and run by the employees' spouses. The case resulted in a $1.5 million settlement agreement by the company and fraud charges against the two employees, with one serving jail time.[36]
CH2M Hill has also earned media criticism for alleged time card fraud,[37] radiation exposure of workers,[38] and involvement in the Solyndra stimulus-and-layoff controversy.[39]


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CH2M_Hill

So, before assuming that these engineering companies would do a good job with the needs of Fukushima, it's important to have a look at their history with major projects.

Halliburton, too, probably has the capabilities for this job, but we've seen how responsible that company is with regard to handling (and causing) disasters.

Frankly, every large engineering firm with experience in the nuclear energy industry has a checkered past, fraught with mistakes, mismanagement, and worse. I can't think of a single one capable of a project of this scale that I'd trust with the job.

Junkdrawer

(27,993 posts)
10. Hence the need for oversight.
Fri Oct 18, 2013, 12:53 PM
Oct 2013

But having a company on the verge of bankruptcy in charge of deciding what should be done and how it should be done is a perfect prescription for disaster.

Case in point: Deep Sea Horizon.

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
11. Bottom line here is that nobody has experience in this particular
Fri Oct 18, 2013, 12:57 PM
Oct 2013

task under these circumstances, and all of the major engineering companies have their own issues. If the current plan works, then there will be a successful removal. If not, then the risk remains of a total collapse of the structure.

Again, the risks involved with removing the fuel rod assemblies are overweighed by the risks of leaving them in place. At this point, engaging a different engineering company to do this crucial job would simply move the risk down the road once more. It will be a risky operation, no matter who does it. But, the risk of a major earthquake collapsing the entire structure is a real one, and the result of that would make it impossible to mitigate later.

The whole thing is a huge disaster. No question about it. But, hiring a global engineering company is no assurance of success, either. Their records are not terrific, either.

Junkdrawer

(27,993 posts)
12. For THIS particular aspect of the cleanup....
Fri Oct 18, 2013, 01:03 PM
Oct 2013

"Do over" is out of the question. I'd still like a second opinion on the details.

For the REST of the cleanup, can we agree that TEPCO is out of it's league?

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
14. I'm not sure anyone is actually qualified in these circumstances.
Fri Oct 18, 2013, 01:25 PM
Oct 2013

Truly. I haven't seen any statements from those major engineering companies about what they would do, either. If I were any of them, I would not want anything to do with this disaster. The downside outweighs the possible benefits for those companies.

The problem is that this whole thing is beyond anyone's experience and may not even be possible to mitigate effectively. That is why:

Nuclear power generation is not safe. It cannot be made to be safe.

I've been saying that since the late 1950s. Nobody has listened. Now, we're reaping the whirlwind.

Junkdrawer

(27,993 posts)
17. To me, that's like saying "all doctors are alike, so the one who has made a mess of my son's care...
Fri Oct 18, 2013, 01:33 PM
Oct 2013

is as good as any"

Sorry, not buying.

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
18. But, see, you're not telling me which doctor can handle the job.
Fri Oct 18, 2013, 01:36 PM
Oct 2013

That's because you have no idea who to recommend. I don't know, either.

I haven't seen any alternative plans put forward to handing the fuel rod assembly removal. Have you?

Junkdrawer

(27,993 posts)
19. It's a matter of money.....
Fri Oct 18, 2013, 01:46 PM
Oct 2013

Good engineering is not cheap.

BTW: Did you know that Japan is going forward with plans to build more reactors? And that they've ruled out entombing the reactors because that would interfere with those plans? The current plan is to level the site as quickly as possible for PR purposes.

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
21. It's a matter of many things.
Fri Oct 18, 2013, 01:58 PM
Oct 2013

Right now, it's a matter of whether they can extract the fuel rod assemblies. They're about to get started. Let's see what happens.

Like most things, I don't look at this from an emotional perspective. Yes, Japan plans more reactors. I think that's a stupid, stupid decision, but I understand why they're doing it. It's a densely populated island that needs a lot of electrical power. They're making short-term decisions, based on that. The wrong decisions, but there it is.

I can't influence what Japan does. I can't influence what happens with nuclear power generation in the U. S. either. I've been trying for decades, without any effect.

So, I watch what happens. That's about the extent of what I can do, unfortunately.

What I don't do is declare doom and gloom. I haven't found it useful in any situation. It's just an emotional response to things we can't control, and serves no functional purpose.

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
16. I would not be competent to judge a second opinion, frankly.
Fri Oct 18, 2013, 01:27 PM
Oct 2013

And I'm not certain anyone is competent to propose an alternative. That's the issue, as far as I'm concerned.

ruffburr

(1,190 posts)
8. I've watched-
Fri Oct 18, 2013, 12:38 PM
Oct 2013

This disaster unfold since day1, At the time i said this is much worse than they are letting on, Well that's now been proven x100,So as a seafood lover I've come to the conclusion that my seafood intake will have to end, Reports of salmon with problems are coming in from vancouver,Starfish turning to mush in Washington state,Rarely seen species washing up dead on So.Cal beaches,And the PTB's best answer is" Wow we don't understand whats happening" Well I have a thought or two on whats happening-Fukushima.

madokie

(51,076 posts)
13. Fukushima is a perfect example of why man
Fri Oct 18, 2013, 01:10 PM
Oct 2013

should never have started splitting atoms to boil water to begin with. On paper it is the cats meow but in reality it has the potential to cause great harm. Accidents do happen and when they happen to a nuclear power plant things can go wrong in a big way, quickly.
Lets hope that this operation comes off without a hitch. I don't even want to think of what ifs in this case. Fukushima should also be used as a perfect example of why we must shut them all down. No matter the cost in doing so. The only completely under control nuclear power plant is one that has been shut down and mothballed. IMO

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
15. I agree that they should all be shut down.
Fri Oct 18, 2013, 01:26 PM
Oct 2013

They should never have been built. I also know that they will not be shut down.

Tikki

(14,557 posts)
20. Let's pay people to bury all nuclear waste in their backyards..
Fri Oct 18, 2013, 01:56 PM
Oct 2013

kinda like reverse fracking...




Tikki

Drew Richards

(1,558 posts)
24. I have intimate familial ties with AEC and ERDA they used to be the pinnacle in OSHA safety in Nucle
Mon Oct 21, 2013, 12:32 AM
Oct 2013

Nuclear power safety. I fear we have not heard a whisper from them because they were gutted by Reagan and do nothing more than shuffle papet any more...God how far this country has fallen under Republican rule.

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