Bettors’ verdict: GOP could lose the House

Bettors’ verdict: GOP could lose the House
Betting market shows how much the shutdown standoff hurt Republicans. -WSJ Marketwatch

Next year’s midterm elections for Congress are now a tossup between the Republicans and the Democrats, according to the betting at the Iowa Electronic Markets — the only sportsbook in America allowed to bet on U.S. elections.

Nancy Pelosi’s chances of leading the Democrats to a House majority have more than doubled in less than a month to about 50% as a result of the government-shutdown fiasco, according to betting on the exchange.

And the Republicans, who appeared to have a lock on the elections just a few weeks ago, have seen their chances collapse at the same time.

Back in September, oddsmakers gave the Republicans a one-in-four chance of gaining seats, improving their overall control of the lower house. That’s now down to one-in-twenty. (The numbers sometimes don’t add up to 100% because of trading spreads.)

It all started to change when Ted Cruz stood up in the Senate and started reading “Green Eggs and Ham.” Then came the shutdown, the threat over the debt ceiling and the pitiful last-minute cave.

Betting markets can be a useful tool in trying to predict the outcome of future elections. They have a reasonable track record, though it gets much better the closer you are to the elections. There is a year to go before the 2014 midterms. And the districting in the House should give the GOP a cushion too. The Democrats will need to beat the GOP hands-down to take a lot of seats off them.

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http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bettors-verdict-gop-will-lose-the-house-2013-10-18?reflink=MW_news_stmp