General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region Forums9 Signs That China Is Making A Move Against The US Dollar
So exactly what would happen if the Chinese announced someday that they were going to back their currency with gold and would no longer be using the U.S. dollar in international trade?
It would change the face of the global economy almost overnight. In a previous article, I described some of the things that we could expect to see happen...
If China does decide to back the yuan with gold and no longer use the U.S. dollar in international trade, it will have devastating effects on the U.S. economy. Demand for the U.S. dollar and U.S. debt would drop like a rock, and prices on the things that we buy every day would soar. At that point you could forget about cheap gasoline or cheap Chinese imports. Our entire way of life depends on the U.S. dollar being the primary reserve currency of the world and being able to import things very inexpensively. If the rest of the world (led by China) starts to reject the U.S. dollar, it would result in a massive tsunami of currency coming back to our shores and a very painful adjustment in our standard of living. Today, most U.S. currency is actually used outside of the United States. If someday that changes and we are no longer able to export our inflation that is going to mean big trouble for us.
The fact that we get to print up giant mountains of money and virtually everyone around the world uses it has been a huge boon for the U.S. economy.
When that changes, the word "catastrophic" is not going to be nearly strong enough to describe what is going to happen.
http://www.businessinsider.com/9-signs-that-china-is-making-a-move-against-the-us-dollar-2013-10
onehandle
(51,122 posts)etherealtruth
(22,165 posts)Bigmack
(8,020 posts)... at a probable cost of $1Trillion.....Air superiority weapon.
The Chinese have less than 200 of the unproven Shenyang J-31s, and don't appear to be building more.
If this piece has any validity, the Chinese are going to let us spend ourselves nearly to death on weapons we won't need while they crush the US dollar hegemony in the financial world.
I sent this info to a friend who is a lot more knowledgeable about China's finance than I am. I'll post his thoughts on this later.
FarCenter
(19,429 posts)Besides bankrupting ourselves with high-tech weaponry, we are bankrupting ourselves fighting asymmetric wars with Al Qaeda.
Art_from_Ark
(27,247 posts)that Reagan caused the downfall of the Soviet Union by forcing them to spend huge sums of money on weapons and military misadventures...
Bigmack
(8,020 posts).. but a lot of reasonable sources are now quoting $6 Trillion. http://www.thenation.com/blog/173589/6-trillion-wars
FarCenter
(19,429 posts)For example, veterans and disability payments in future years.
OTOH, if you include all the homeland security costs, many of which are cosmetic, feel good measures, the $6 trillion may have been spent.
Boxerfan
(2,533 posts)It won't be pretty but if it does happen at least at some point we will regain our manufacturing.
But it was a road we should have never taken " Free trade" my arse..
Tariffs people-when we removed them we wrote the final chapter without knowing it.
HereSince1628
(36,063 posts)But then, I'm one of those who believe that stable (diversified) national economies are less likely if local and region production-consumption cycles are missing from the economy.
randome
(34,845 posts)If we remove one, other nations pledge to do the same, right?
[hr][font color="blue"][center]Stop looking for heroes. BE one.[/center][/font][hr]
Moliere
(285 posts)He brought it up context of China dumping US bonds and the impact of that action
-snip-
Its true that China could, possibly, depress the value of the dollar. But that would be good for America! Think about Abenomics in Japan: its biggest success so far has been driving down the value of the yen, helping Japanese exporters.
-snip-
[link:http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/10/18/the-china-debt-syndrome/?_r=0|
FarCenter
(19,429 posts)The US runs a huge trade deficit - we import much more than we export. So a cheaper dollar makes imports more expensive and exports cheaper.
In the long run, that should decrease the volume of goods imported and increase the volume of goods exported. However, in the short run, the trade deficit widens due to re-pricing before volumes are affected, and the cost of living goes up. Furthermore, there are whole sectors of the economy, such as consumer electronics, telecom, personal computing, etc. where the US has no domestic production capability and where prices would simply rise until demand fell.
roamer65
(36,745 posts)You are right, we have to change that fact. Best way at this point is probably a slow, controlled devaluation of the dollar AND and an upward revaluation of the renminbi. I think this is the process that is currently in play by Chinese and American officials.
roamer65
(36,745 posts)Such a devaluation would not remain unilateral. It would add fuel to the existing currency war fire. Competitive devaluations of currencies never have good outcomes. Just look at the 1930's and especially Japan's devaluation. The excess money had go somewhere and it went into militarization.
madrchsod
(58,162 posts)so china is willing to put their currency as the world standard?
anyone who thinks gold will ever be used again as a standard is living in the past.
randome
(34,845 posts)Maybe this article is a way to strengthen the hawkers who advise on late-night TV to buy gold. And Glenn Beck.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]Stop looking for heroes. BE one.[/center][/font][hr]
roamer65
(36,745 posts)However, most people do not fully realize what happened in 1971 when Nixon took us off the fixed rate gold exchange standard...aka Bretton Woods. The dollar and gold then became floating rate currencies. Gold now floats against all currencies, including the US dollar. We still have a gold standard in a sense. It is a floating rate system, which is the best way to handle the convertibility. The Chinese will eventually realize this and float the renminbi just like other major currencies.
Uncle Joe
(58,366 posts)Perhaps they don't care and are willing to make that tradeoff, but I kind of doubt it.
Thanks for the thread, FarCenter.
Jeffersons Ghost
(15,235 posts)Jeffersons Ghost
(15,235 posts)Look at the U.S.A. http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023851520
roamer65
(36,745 posts)They have to float the currency and also float interest rates. Capital controls also have to be removed. They are on the way with convertibility agreements with countries such as Australia, but are not there yet.
It is true they are buying the crap out if the gold market. They are actively trying to lower their percentage of US Treasuries as foreign exchange reserves, but it has to be done slowly and without fanfare. They do not want to induce a financial panic.
As far as the Chinese going on a gold standard I highly doubt it. The upward revaluation of a gold backed renminbi would be something their economy could not handle. It is in their best interests to float the renminbi within the current floating rate currency system.
madokie
(51,076 posts)with their latest and why we as voters need to work our asses off to get them away from the reins of power as soon as elections will allow. I say this like I really get out and do a lot, which I have to admit I don't do nearly enough so I don't intend this to be cut to those of us who do already work their asses off for us. To those people I say I appreciate what they are doing.