Not Larry Sabato: Terry Mac heading for record win for a Dem in Virginia.

The election of 2013 can be summed up with some very simple numbers.

In 2001, Mark Warner averaged a net +31% in favorability over unfavorability ratings as he ran for Governor. He won by 5%. Many people who liked Warner didn't end up voting for him but helped him form a strong base of support while he was Governor.

In 2005, Tim Kaine averaged a net +24% in favorability over unfavorability ratings in his race for Governor. He won by 6%.

In 2013, Terry McAuliffe is averaging a -7% in favorability versus unfavorability. Yes, a *negative* 7%. But he is leading in polling by a wider margin than Warner or Kaine and looks to win the largest margin for any Democrat for Governor since Gerry Bailies in 1985. In fact- he may even break that record (just over 10%) for the biggest Democratic win for Governor in the modern era.

How could this be? It's because this years election isn't about the Democrats or Terry McAuliffe. It is solely about Ken Cuccinelli. Voters have decided to reject his candidacy and they don't seem to care about McAuliffe- even voters that say they dislike Terry are favoring him by massive margins when they say they also dislike Cuccinelli.


http://notlarrysabato.typepad.com/doh/2013/10/governors-race-is-now-a-virtual-lock.html