General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsHoly mackeral! Are these two typhoons going to merge?
Right now in the Western Pacific Ocean, there are two typhoons making their way toward Japan. One is the slow-moving "Francisco" (called "Number 27" in Japan) and the other is Lekima ("Number 28" . Both are strong storms, with winds reaching up to 135 miles per hour (60 meters/second). This map of the current trajectories of the two storms shows them perhaps converging on the 25th or 26th Japan time. I do not like the looks of this
?t=1382425067
http://typhoon.yahoo.co.jp/weather/jp/typhoon/
Wounded Bear
(58,670 posts)I hope my brother is OK. He lives there.
Art_from_Ark
(27,247 posts)It looks like more flooding is on the way for inland areas, too. Is your brother near the coast?
Douglas Carpenter
(20,226 posts)The last really destructive typhoon to hit the island of Saipan was in 1997. We have had an exceptional amount of peculiar whether within the last month. However, Saipan is usually fortunate enough to be just off the path of typhoons.
On Oct. 21 at 1500 UTC/11 a.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Lekima had maximum sustained winds near 55 knots/63.2 mph/101.9 kph. It was centered near 13.6 north and 159.4 east, about 815 nautical miles/ 937.9 miles/1,509 km east of Saipan. Lekima was moving to the north-northwest at 10 knots/11.5 mph/18.5 kph.
A visible image of Tropical Storm Lekima was obtained by Japan's MTSAT-2 satellite on Oct. 21 at 0532 UTC/1:32 a.m. EDT. Additional infrared satellite imagery showed that the tropical storm was organizing and consolidating. Imagery showed that bands of thunderstorms were wrapping around the well-defined center of circulation, and a pinhole eye-like feature.
Forecasters at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center expect Lekima to strengthen to typhoon strength in the next day. Lekima's maximum sustained winds are expected to peak near 115 knots/132.3 mph/213 kph by Oct. 24 as it continues to move over open waters of the Northwestern Pacific. Lekima is forecast to approach Iwo To on Oct. 24, and then turn to the northeast away from the island.
Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2013-10-tropical-storm-lekima-born-northwestern.html#jCp
B Calm
(28,762 posts)Douglas Carpenter
(20,226 posts)Response to Douglas Carpenter (Reply #7)
A HERETIC I AM This message was self-deleted by its author.
Douglas Carpenter
(20,226 posts)intrigue.
Commonwealth Health Center, Saipan, the island's only hospital.
Response to Douglas Carpenter (Reply #14)
A HERETIC I AM This message was self-deleted by its author.
Douglas Carpenter
(20,226 posts)Last edited Tue Oct 22, 2013, 07:59 AM - Edit history (1)
rusted Japanese equipment - but not that much anymore except for that which has been purposefully maintained such as the old Japanese prison which now has a cult following of people who insist that Amelia Earhart was held prisoner there and later executed as a spy. Of course that story is highly disputed - but there is a regular troop of followers of that line who come here. And of course the last Japanese Command Post which is located near Bonzai Cliff as you start to head up toward Suicide Cliff is maintained as a kind of outdoor museum and memorial. I remember there are a few places - like one on the old Japanese path that goes from Bonzai to the Grotto that has a fenced off areas - with signs warning of explosive ordinances.
I dare say that after Saipan voted to become a U.S. Commonwealth Territory in 1978 and was fully enacted in 1986- a great deal of developmental aid kicked in and there are now paved road which I understand there were hardly any as recent as the late 80's, Of course schools and all the other trimmings raising a generation of Chammaros and Carolinian kids who speak only English with American accents. So, it is probably very different than what you remember . People who were here back in 1986 tell me that the difference is overwhelming between then and now. Of course the garment business came and then left - So, Saipan had its boom and bust. But now it is becoming a very popular tourist destination for Chinese, Koreans, Japanese and Russians from Siberia - the hotels are now packed year-around.
VIEW OF GARAPAN AND THE PHILIPPNE SEA FROM MOUNT TAPACHAU
yuiyoshida
(41,832 posts)looks like a fascinating place to visit. Would living there be difficult? I wonder how the weather is year round?
Douglas Carpenter
(20,226 posts)was in 2007 and another one in 2002 - There was a really powerful one in 1997 - but compared to places like the Philippines which typically get hit with at least five or six typhoons a year - we have it pretty easy. Typically we receive a bit of rain a couple of times a day usually lasting for about ten to twenty minutes and then clear skies again. However the last few weeks have been an exception - with considerably more than the average amount of rain - but no serious flooding or damage. It can get a bit humid from about 10:00 AM morning to about 4:00 pm in the afternoon. Otherwise the weather is pretty moderate. Housing cost are very low - although energy cost and western made consumer goods are higher than most places because of the need to ship in the materials at a destination that is somewhat off the beaten path. I would say that Saipan is stunningly beautiful and by far the most laid back and relaxing place I have ever lived. It has a very unusual mixture of being both quiet and rural and utterly multicultural. How many place do you know that are as both quiet and rural as small town America yet as multicultural as living in a major city?
If you want to take a look at the place through the local eyes - here are links to the two local newspapers:
The Saipan Tribune
http://www.saipantribune.com/
The Marianas Variety
http://www.mvariety.com/
yuiyoshida
(41,832 posts)I would love to come and visit it on a holiday, if ever I get my passport renewed. I have added it to my list along with Hawaii. I love San Francisco, and its pretty multi cultural here.. but the South Pacific has some of the most beautiful beaches I have ever seen, and it be fun to go some place a little different! Thanks for the tips!
yoroshiku ne! ^^
Art_from_Ark
(27,247 posts)so you wouldn't need a passport to visit it.
yuiyoshida
(41,832 posts)Thanks Art San! But, I bet I would still kinda need it, coming back to prove I am a US Citizen.
Art_from_Ark
(27,247 posts)if you fly to Guam, then to Honolulu, then to the US mainland, so no passport is required, although some form of ID is.
Douglas Carpenter
(20,226 posts)usually fly on Delta through Narita in Japan - which of course would require a passport to transit - or on United Airlines through Hawaii and then through Guam - while legally speaking don't require a passport since you're passing through U.S. territory - given the zealotry of TSA inspectors and everything - it would be a good idea to have one just to avoid any delays. Coming back - as you said - you would not want any complications proving your citizenship when passing through TSA and immigration in Honolulu
pintobean
(18,101 posts)Korea seems to be misplaced.
davidpdx
(22,000 posts)Maybe they are working from a map that is a century old.
Douglas Carpenter
(20,226 posts)can't remember where I found it - but I'm sure the purpose of the map was to show the various airline flight routes to saipan
pinboy3niner
(53,339 posts)That would show the streets of Seoul.
MrScorpio
(73,631 posts)Who's been moving it around since I've been gone?
davidpdx
(22,000 posts)I'm still in Korea.
Response to Douglas Carpenter (Reply #10)
Art_from_Ark This message was self-deleted by its author.
Douglas Carpenter
(20,226 posts)Response to Douglas Carpenter (Reply #20)
Art_from_Ark This message was self-deleted by its author.
davidpdx
(22,000 posts)despite the projection except for Korea. It's a screwball map.
Art_from_Ark
(27,247 posts)I thought people were referring to the map I had originally posted. Now that I have realized what map you were actually talking about, I concur, it is a screwball map.
Douglas Carpenter
(20,226 posts)We receive a lot of tourist from Siberia who fly from Vladivostok - sometimes on direct flights but sometimes changing in Seoul - So the map was created to show flight connections to Saipan - which it does accurately show - but with a great deal of artistic license when it comes to actual geography.
davidpdx
(22,000 posts)That's a lot of artistic license.
Art_from_Ark
(27,247 posts)That's a bit too much "artistic license", I think.
malaise
(269,054 posts)Meanwhile Acapulco is being lashed again - this time by almost stationary Cat3 hurricane Raymond
davidpdx
(22,000 posts)This one shows both of them turning. Lekima is a day behind.
http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
Art_from_Ark
(27,247 posts)Lekima developed more recently and is traveling at twice the speed of Francisco (30km/hour versus 15km/hour)
Ichingcarpenter
(36,988 posts)the show was on storms in the solar system. On Venus they showed two typhoons very close to each other and one of the scientist said that this was never seen on earth.
I wonder if this is a first.
Javaman
(62,530 posts)get the red out
(13,466 posts)Those poor people!!!!!! Thoughts for them.
Art_from_Ark
(27,247 posts)27 dead, 19 missing in that one, and now there are landslide warnings in effect due to the current typhoons.
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)at least that is usually what happens. Sometimes, if they are close to equal size, they orbit around a central point and eventually merge but the result is usually not a bigger storm than before.
lonestarnot
(77,097 posts)Art_from_Ark
(27,247 posts)It looks like the two typhoons are, indeed, going to converge on each other, around 9 am Japan time on the 26th
?t=1382500655
Art_from_Ark
(27,247 posts)Maximum wind speeds is now estimated to be 190mph (85 meters per second).
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)Art_from_Ark
(27,247 posts)And the current forecasts have the "weaker" typhoon Francisco (#27) keeping the stronger typhoon Lekima (#28) away from the Japanese mainland.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)Art_from_Ark
(27,247 posts)A little heavy rain tomorrow morning is all they're predicting now for metro Tokyo. And the forecast for the Fukushima reactor area is just for light rain today and tomorrow with winds gusting up to about 13mph.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)kentauros
(29,414 posts)Last Updated: Thursday, October 24, 2013, 7:00:00 AM 0
Wind: 150 MPH
Location: 22.5N 214.4E
Movement: NW at 16 mph
wdpn32 pgtw 241500
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/prognostic reasoning for super typhoon 28w (Lekima) warning nr
17//
rmks//
1. For meteorologists.
2. 6 hour summary and analysis.
Super Typhoon (STY) 28w (Lekima), located approximately 274 nm
east-southeast of iwo to, Japan, has tracked northwestward at 14
knots over the past six hours. Animated enhanced infrared satellite
imagery shows an intense system with a sharply-defined 25 nm eye
surrounded by a thick eyewall. However, the system is beginning to
lose symmetry with elongation along the northern flank. This
indicates that 28w is now approaching the mid-latitude westerlies
and subsequently, stronger vertical wind shear (vws). The initial
position is based on the eye feature with high confidence. The
initial intensity of 130 knots is based on congruent Dvorak
estimates from pgtw, rjtd, and knes. Upper level analysis indicates
a point source anticyclone continues to provide favorable radial
outflow. The cyclone is tracking along the southwestern periphery of
the deep-layered subtropical ridge (str) to the north.
3. Forecast reasoning.
A. There is no change to the forecast philosophy from the previous
prognostic reasoning message.
B. A mid-latitude trough approaching from the northwest has begun
to weaken the str. In effect, sty Lekima is expected to track more
poleward as it rounds the western edge of the str over the next 12
hours. Afterwards, the system will accelerate northeastward as it
gets embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. Decreasing sea surface
temperatures and increasing vws will gradually erode the system.
After tau 24, the cyclone will begin extra-tropical transition (ett)
and by the end of the forecast, will complete its transformation
into a storm-force cold-core low. Numeric models remain in tight
agreement. In view of this and the well-defined steering mechanism,
there is a high confidence in the forecast which is laid close to but
slightly faster than the multi-model consensus. This strategy is used
to offset known climatological track tendencies. //
Nnnn
Recursion
(56,582 posts)madville
(7,412 posts)Had this never happened before?
yuiyoshida
(41,832 posts)Art san, Agare! Agare! Agare! Hayaku!
Art_from_Ark
(27,247 posts)結局、台風がここに接近しないようです。天気予報によって、明日の朝未明、雨がまあまあ強く降るかもしれないが、その後は晴れるだろう。
yuiyoshida
(41,832 posts)Kansō taizai kudasai 乾燥滞在ください stay dry my friend.
Art_from_Ark
(27,247 posts)I already got wet this morning walking to the bus stop. And I'll probably get wet tonight walking back from the bus stop. But at least it wasn't/won't be the soaked-to-the-bone typhoon-type of wet
yuiyoshida
(41,832 posts)Art san wa kasa o motte imasu ka?
Art_from_Ark
(27,247 posts)傘を使っていも、上半身(頭、肩など)だけを守れて、下半身が(特に大型トラックが道路を通りかかると)ぬれる場合が多い
yuiyoshida
(41,832 posts)Wakatta, arigatou! I have been splashed many times by passing cars and trucks.. that's not fun, but at least when you get home you can SOAK in a nice bath tub. I wish I had one of those. I hate apartments that just have showers.
Art_from_Ark
(27,247 posts)Relaxing in a nice, deep tub that can reheat the water when it becomes tepid is the way to go. Especially after being splashed by passing cars and trucks on the way home.
私も、シャワーがつまらない。