Democrats suddenly have a Maine headache

http://www.salon.com/2012/03/05/democrats_suddenly_have_a_maine_headache/


Angus King (Credit: AP/Pat Wellenbach)

When Olympia Snowe made her surprise retirement announcement last week, Democrats across the country rejoiced. The three-term Republican had been the clear favorite to win reelection, but given Maine’s partisan bent, her Senate seat suddenly seemed theirs to lose. The national implications were significant: a Democratic pickup in Maine would force Republicans to gain a net total of five seats this fall in order to recapture the chamber (or four if the GOP presidential nominee wins).

But now things are a lot more tricky, with Monday’s news that Angus King, who attained massive popularity as governor from 1995 to 2003, is set to enter the race as an independent. In most states, a third-party Senate candidacy would be a long shot, but Maine is probably the most independent-friendly state in America. Two independents — King and James Longley, who served from 1975 to 1979 — have been elected governor since the 1970s, and Eliot Cutler came within 2 points of becoming the third in 2010. The state is also one of only two in which Ross Perot finished second in 1992.

So King, who was elected in 1994 in a squeaker and reelected in a 40-point rout four years later, absolutely could win. If he does, control of the Senate could end up resting on his decision. And even if he doesn’t win, King’s presence could alter the math by draining votes disproportionately from one of the major party candidates — presumably the Democrat, given his cultural liberalism.

Thus, there’s now reason for Democrats to worry. But King’s entrance doesn’t have to be bad news for them. Here are four ways his political comeback might play out:

1. The Democrats’ nightmare — all over again: In 2010, Maine elected one of the most conservative governors in America, Paul LePage. A blunt-spoken favorite of the Tea Party movement, LePage rode his grass-roots support to a stunning upset in the GOP primary. Under more ordinary circumstances, that’s where his luck would have run out, and LePage’s provocative, far-right antics would have scared off swing voters in the fall and made him the Maine equivalent of Sharron Angle. But with Cutler, a moderate former Ed Muskie aide, waging a well-funded independent bid, the anti-LePage vote was split, and the GOP nominee was elected with just 38 percent of the vote.