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ProSense

(116,464 posts)
Wed Nov 20, 2013, 01:11 PM Nov 2013

Krugman: The State of Obamacare

The State of Obamacare

I haven’t been writing about the healthcare.gov thing, for the simple reason that I have nothing to say. What’s going on isn’t a policy question: we know from the states with working exchanges (including California) that the underlying structure of the law is workable. Instead, it’s about an implementation botch, which is an incredible mess, and reflects very badly on Obama. But the future of the reform depends not on policy per se but on whether the IT issues can be fixed well enough soon enough, a subject on which I have zero expertise.

Of course, that hasn’t stopped other people from breathlessly commenting on every twist and turn in the polls, every meaningless vote in the House, and so on. Hey, it’s a living.

But at this point there’s enough information coming in to make semi-educated guesses — and it looks to me as if this thing is probably going to stumble through to the finish line. State-run enrollments are mostly going pretty well; Medicaid expansion is going very well (and it’s expanding even in states that have rejected the expansion, because more people are learning they’re eligible.) And healthcare.gov, while still pretty bad, is starting to look as if it will be good enough in a few weeks for large numbers of people to sign up, either through the exchanges or directly with insurers.

If all this is right, by the time open enrollment ends in March, millions of previously uninsured Americans will in fact have received coverage under the law, and reform will be irreversible. Obama personally may never recover his reputation; Democratic hopes of a wave election in 2014 are probably gone, although you never know. But anyone counting on Obamacare to collapse is probably making a very bad bet.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/11/20/the-state-of-obamacare/

Frankly, anyone using the current negative press to predict 2014 is likely "making a very bad bet."

Chris Hayes: Sleeper issue of 2014? GOP refusal of Medicaid expansion.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10024056672

Obamacare Panic to Enter Even Stupider New Phase
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10024064057

28 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Krugman: The State of Obamacare (Original Post) ProSense Nov 2013 OP
Kick! n/t ProSense Nov 2013 #1
Just like folks in red states who are eligible for Medicad are now learning that ... JoePhilly Nov 2013 #2
Only in the Red States that accepted the Medicaid Expansion. Bandit Nov 2013 #14
No, enrollment is also going up in those states that rejected Medicaid Expansion. ieoeja Nov 2013 #20
Commentators like to write off Obama as "probably never recovering from this". Hey, it's a living Pretzel_Warrior Nov 2013 #3
I think the hey it's a living remark was snark by Krugman. JaneyVee Nov 2013 #5
Yes. And I was snarling back at Krugman. Pretzel_Warrior Nov 2013 #6
It wasn't a prediction, and neither was his point about 2014. ProSense Nov 2013 #8
Nope. Those were predictions. Krugman is in the dog house for me today Pretzel_Warrior Nov 2013 #9
They weren't, but have it your way. n/t ProSense Nov 2013 #10
Where are you getting these quotes? ieoeja Nov 2013 #21
Does it matter whether Obama recovers or not? It only matters how Democrats react and Bandit Nov 2013 #15
Obama will do just fine. The Republicans who sabotage everything Obama tries to do will not. JDPriestly Nov 2013 #18
The refusal of R states to expand Medicaid and create exchanges JNinWB Nov 2013 #4
If it's mostly an engineering issue... JHB Nov 2013 #7
another analogy (1970/Apollo 13) ----> napkinz Nov 2013 #11
I like it. n/t ProSense Nov 2013 #12
We've got his back! napkinz Nov 2013 #13
Kick! Cha Nov 2013 #16
The idiot pundits, which there exist many within the MSM, are labeling this Obama's Katrina. Jefferson23 Nov 2013 #17
Have people forgotten Microsoft Vista? JDPriestly Nov 2013 #19
Medicaid Expansion DallasNE Nov 2013 #22
Krugman is a freakin' genius!!! No doubt about it. Major Hogwash Nov 2013 #23
if only we had a media that reported facts! napkinz Nov 2013 #24
from Cha's thread napkinz Nov 2013 #25
Krugman (unrelated): ProSense Nov 2013 #26
reform will be irreversible Doctor_J Nov 2013 #27
Or maybe ProSense Nov 2013 #28

JoePhilly

(27,787 posts)
2. Just like folks in red states who are eligible for Medicad are now learning that ...
Wed Nov 20, 2013, 01:51 PM
Nov 2013

fact ... and joining ... millions will have insurance by the 2014 elections ... and the media's endless coverage, will end up making sure that even more know it.

There's going to be a trend line that shows the upward trajectory. The story will be, while there were some initial issues, the e worst has passed and more and more are getting engaged.

Bandit

(21,475 posts)
14. Only in the Red States that accepted the Medicaid Expansion.
Wed Nov 20, 2013, 03:35 PM
Nov 2013

Which is not very damn many. Kentucky and Ohio and Arizona, I think but most have not..

 

ieoeja

(9,748 posts)
20. No, enrollment is also going up in those states that rejected Medicaid Expansion.
Wed Nov 20, 2013, 04:29 PM
Nov 2013

Per the article, all the reporting on this subject is educating people in those states to the fact that they already qualified for Medicaid.

It's not like the states automatically enroll people in Medicaid when their tax refunds indicate they are qualified. If you don't ask for it, you aren't getting it. If you assumed you made too much money to qualify, you're not asking.

Ironically, the Teabaggers fight against Obamacare may end up causing a greater expansion in Medicaid than did the ACA.


 

Pretzel_Warrior

(8,361 posts)
3. Commentators like to write off Obama as "probably never recovering from this". Hey, it's a living
Wed Nov 20, 2013, 01:51 PM
Nov 2013

Right, Krugman? Your focus should be on economic numbers--something you're good ar--not guessing at political fortunes which you clearly suck at.

 

Pretzel_Warrior

(8,361 posts)
6. Yes. And I was snarling back at Krugman.
Wed Nov 20, 2013, 01:58 PM
Nov 2013

Because he predicts Obama will likely never recover from the crappy website rollout. And I'm calling bullshit. It's a stupid prediction to make. I basically hated most everything about this Krugman column and will thus refuse to warn him about the muskrat on his face.

ProSense

(116,464 posts)
8. It wasn't a prediction, and neither was his point about 2014.
Wed Nov 20, 2013, 02:03 PM
Nov 2013

He was simply emphasizing that unlike the speculation around Obama's reputation and 2014, the health care law is here to stay.

 

Pretzel_Warrior

(8,361 posts)
9. Nope. Those were predictions. Krugman is in the dog house for me today
Wed Nov 20, 2013, 02:08 PM
Nov 2013

It's called damning with faint praise.

"the president will slide into history as a diminished figure because ASP's weren't coded correctly...and the Democrats' hope of taking the house suffered a mortal blow because insurance companies were being stopped from selling shitty insurance....but by God, this Obamacare thing is here to stay even if it's on life support".

He should have continued his self-imposed moratorium on columns about Obamacare.

 

ieoeja

(9,748 posts)
21. Where are you getting these quotes?
Wed Nov 20, 2013, 04:38 PM
Nov 2013

The quote "probably never recover" is actually "may never recover" which is vastly different from one another.

And your latest, "the president will slide into history as a diminished figure because ASP's weren't coded correctly...and the Democrats' hope of taking the house suffered a mortal blow because insurance companies were being stopped from selling shitty insurance....but by God, this Obamacare thing is here to stay even if it's on life support" ...

Nothing in Krugman's article linked in the OP even remotely resembles that quote. I'm guessing you're referring to another article of his on this subject that I haven't seen?


Bandit

(21,475 posts)
15. Does it matter whether Obama recovers or not? It only matters how Democrats react and
Wed Nov 20, 2013, 03:37 PM
Nov 2013

whether they can get past this.. Obama is not running for Office any more. His next position in the government, if he has one, will be Supreme Court Justice.

JNinWB

(250 posts)
4. The refusal of R states to expand Medicaid and create exchanges
Wed Nov 20, 2013, 01:54 PM
Nov 2013

may increase Democratic votes in those states. Once those voters see how well CA and KY are performing, they may want to fire their R/TP over-lords.

Jefferson23

(30,099 posts)
17. The idiot pundits, which there exist many within the MSM, are labeling this Obama's Katrina.
Wed Nov 20, 2013, 03:58 PM
Nov 2013

Jon Stewart had a field day with that, the other night.

JDPriestly

(57,936 posts)
19. Have people forgotten Microsoft Vista?
Wed Nov 20, 2013, 04:19 PM
Nov 2013

I had to change to Microsoft 7 because my Vista was so bad. Maybe that is not true for everyone who had Microsoft Vista, but it sure was for me.

Even the best computer companies have their good and bad days.

DallasNE

(7,403 posts)
22. Medicaid Expansion
Wed Nov 20, 2013, 04:38 PM
Nov 2013

Krugman made an excellent point when he said Medicaid is expanding even in the States that have rejected expansion because a lot of Americans are discovering for the first time that they are eligible for Medicaid. Those States will soon be clamoring to join so that the Federal government picks up the tab, otherwise it will bust their budgets. Both predictable and predicted.

Most of the talk about the IT issues are uninformed, including by the IT people putting in their two cents worth. Unless you have access to the complete architecture you are in no position to evaluate it. And unless you know the requirements intimately you cannot know whether another structure would have been a better design. Note, this is not an endorsement of the existing system as it clearly is not that, given the many bugs still in the system. It is, rather, a condemnation of the knee-jerk response by people that don't know what they are talking about. Incidentally, most of the errors I saw were of a nature that should have been caught in unit testing and should be rather easy to fix. Things like not saving data that should have been saved, not properly tracking data and navigating to the wrong location when attempting to resume input. The issue of the crashes would be more difficult but there should be tools to pinpoint the problem, whether capacity (hardware) or program design (software). Until the fixes are in place we will not be able to begin the evaluation of design itself and whether a rewrite is warranted.

Major Hogwash

(17,656 posts)
23. Krugman is a freakin' genius!!! No doubt about it.
Wed Nov 20, 2013, 04:50 PM
Nov 2013

I love the fact that Krugman says that he doesn't know anything about the IT issues because he knows the website will get fixed . . that is the EASIST part of this whole thing to get done!!

Getting it through Congress 3 years ago was the hard part!!

And I think that President Obama knew that, too.
By the way, President Obama got more "free" advertsing from all of the carping about the crummy roll-out than he would have if there would not have been any glitches at all.

So there!!

 

Doctor_J

(36,392 posts)
27. reform will be irreversible
Wed Nov 20, 2013, 07:35 PM
Nov 2013

That's a way of saying the country is stuck with insurance mandates and will never have real healthcare like the civilized countries do. Such a wasted opportunity

ProSense

(116,464 posts)
28. Or maybe
Wed Nov 20, 2013, 07:41 PM
Nov 2013

"reform will be irreversible

That's a way of saying the country is stuck with insurance mandates and will never have real healthcare like the civilized countries do. Such a wasted opportunity"

...it means, there's no going back to a sucky crappy system and progress is inevitable.

Single Payer movement in the era of Obamacare

by Shockwave

If you believe that healthcare is a basic human right and understand why Single Payer IS the final destination of healthcare reform and you want to get it done as soon as possible, read on.

<...>

If you are involved in the Single Payer movement in California this diary may help you understand what we face and whet we can do to get things done.

I am one of those Single Payer activists who understands that Obamacare will benefit many and it is truly amazing that this effort, that President Obama should get full credit for, is the best that could come from a dysfunctional and extremely polarized DC.

And I support those who keep up the fight to prevent its sabotage by all the Republicans in red states and in DC.

I consider the ACA a giant first step towards an America where healthcare is recognized as a basic human right and there is a system that allows ALL who live here to have access to affordable medical attention without the fear of going bankrupt.

And I understand that California is leading the country in the implementation of Obamacare. But it's not about being better than other states like Texas and Georgia where Obamacare is being sabotaged or ignored. It's about joining Vermont to help lead the country to a place where ALL are covered, where the private insurance blood suckers are gone, where medical results and costs are in line with other developed nations, where if you need to see a doctor (or a dentist) you make an appointment and you don't worry whether you will be able to pay the rent (given that 76% of all Americans live paycheck to paycheck).

So how do we get it done? <...>

Bill Zimmerman has just published an article that sets the tone;

Why California can lead the way to Single Payer in the U.S.

Recently Public Citizen, a member of California’s AllCare Alliance, released a report entitled, “A Roadmap to Single-Payer: How States Can Escape the Clutches of the Private Health Insurance Industry.” “We’re looking for a few pioneering states with the courage and fortitude to let common sense prevail over the insanity of our current patchwork system, “said Lisa Gilbert, director of Public Citizen’s Congress Watch division. “Once they succeed, we expect most opposition to single-payer and our reliance on privately insured health care to become historical relics.”


By the time California votes to move to a single payer system – the earliest date possible is 2017 when the Affordable Care Act allows states to set up their own systems – Congress will have gone through two more election cycles. Voters will be less white, and probably less conservative, and the changing composition of the House of Representatives may allow for passage of single-payer waiver legislation for states, perhaps even with “state’s rights” support from a few Republicans.

California, Vermont and possibly other states moving to single-payer will put increasing pressure on Congress to grant other state waivers. Once subject to such pressure, Congress could theoretically pass a federal bill to give (improved) Medicare to all, but it is politically far more likely that they will simply let the states set up their own systems, which can then become models for a larger federal program. California, once again, could be the engine driving national change.

One of the features of Obamacare is the "waiver". The idea is that states can apply for this "waiver" and implement their own plan starting 2017 if this new plan covers more people and is affordable.

So lets take a look at what the ACA says about the "innovation waiver";

SEC. 1332 ø42 U.S.C. 18052¿. WAIVER FOR STATE INNOVATION.
(a) APPLICATION.—
(1) IN GENERAL.—A State may apply to the Secretary for the waiver of all or any requirements described in paragraph
(2) with respect to health insurance coverage within that State for plan years beginning on or after January 1, 2017. Such application shall—
(A) be filed at such time and in such manner as the Secretary may require;
(B) contain such information as the Secretary may require, including—
(i) a comprehensive description of the State legislation and program to implement a plan meeting the requirements for a waiver under this section; and
(ii) a 10-year budget plan for such plan that is budget neutral for the Federal Government; and
(C) provide an assurance that the State has enacted the law described in
subsection (b)(2).

So this is the milestone that any state has to go through. The Vermont single payer activists lead the way. Even Vermont will apply for the "innivation waiver" to get federal funds starting in 2017 to help pay for their Single Payer system.

Here in California the Single Payer organizations (linked logos below) will announce soon the plan to achieve the "waiver" milestone by January 1st 2017. The Single Payer plan that will be proposed will be based mostly on SB 810, which was approved by SEnate and Assembly twice and vetoed twice by Arnold Schwarzenegger and in 2012 it was stopped by 6 blue dogs in the Senate before it could get to Jerry Brown's desk.

In California, one of the key issues is that Obamacare will leave out over 3,000,000 undocumented workers. These 3,000,000 are an integral part of our society and mostly but not all are Latinos. And as Joan McCarter pointed out, Latino organizations worry about funding for Obamacare outreach efforts;

Hispanic health centers and community organizations say they don’t have the funding or resources to carry out the complicated sign up process for the 10 million Latinos who will be eligible for new public and subsidized health coverage options.

Latino organization outreach is a key to success.

And we should coordinate the efforts around the country.

So here in California we need to work with Sacramento at all levels. It will be a lot of hard work but there are thousands of committed activists.

One way you can help is by joining one of the Single Payer organizations and help us organize and direct the grassroots movement that will be instrumental in convincing Sacramento to go along.

And this week on Thursday August 1st you can join other activists to watch The Healthcare Movie in Santa Monica at 7:30PM and celebrate the 48th anniversary of Medicare. You can buy tickets here.

- more -

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/07/30/1226609/-Single-Payer-movement-in-the-era-of-Obamacare


Note:

Kos Media, LLC Site content may be used for any purpose without explicit permission unless otherwise specified


Remember Section 1332 of the health care law?

State single payer waiver provisions in the Senate healthcare bill - legislative language and fact sheet from Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders

Why the 1332 Waiver in the Senate Health Reform Bill is the Only Opportunity for State Single Payer Systems Under the Bill

The health care reform bill passed by the Senate requires that all states set up Exchanges through which private insurance companies could sell their plans. Because federal laws preempt state laws, the federal health care reform bill would supplant any state attempt to set up a single payer system in lieu of an Exchange, which by its nature calls for multiple payers to compete. If the Senate bill is enacted, the only opportunity for states to move toward a single payer system is found in Section 1332. This section would allow a state with a plan that meets certain coverage and affordability requirements to waive out of the requirement to set up an Exchange for private insurance companies. Only with such a waiver could a state move in the direction of a single payer system.

- more -

http://www.pnhp.org/news/2010/march/state-single-payer-waiver-provisions-in-the-senate-healthcare-bill-legislative-langu


Release: President Endorses State Waiver Proposal

Vermont Delegation and Gov. Shumlin Hail Obama Endorsement of State Health Reform Waiver Legislation

WASHINGTON, Feb. 28 - The Vermont congressional delegation and Gov. Peter Shumlin today hailed President Obama's endorsement of legislation allowing states to provide better health care at a lower cost starting in 2014.

At a meeting of the National Governors Association Monday morning, Obama announced his support for amending the Affordable Care Act to allow states like Vermont to seek a federal waiver to the new law three years earlier than currently allowed. States would be required to design plans that are at least as comprehensive and affordable as the federal model and cover at least as many people

Last month Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) introduced in the Senate and Rep. Peter Welch (D-Vt.) introduced in the House legislation that would advance the date waivers would be accepted from 2017 to 2014. The three joined Gov. Shumlin at a Montpelier press conference to announce the legislation, which would provide Vermont the flexibility it needs to adopt reforms Shumlin is pursuing.

Leahy said, "This is a wise decision that keeps in focus the goal of continually improving health care in America. I applaud President Obama and Secretary Sebelius for supporting efforts by Vermont and other states to go above and beyond what the Affordable Care Act requires. They know that the federal government does not have a monopoly on good ideas, and innovations by the states will prove - and improve --- the benefits of health insurance reform, on the ground, and in practice. While some in Washington want to turn the clock back and repeal the new health reform law, Vermont and other states want to move ahead. Vermont has already been working hard to improve the state's system of health care, and passage of the delegation's waiver bill will move our state one step closer to that goal."

Sanders said, "At a time when 50 million Americans lack health insurance and when the cost of health care continues to soar, it is my strong hope that Vermont will lead the nation in a new direction through a Medicare-for-all, single-payer approach. I am delighted that President Obama announced today that he will, in fact, support allowing states to innovate with health coverage models sooner rather than later. I worked hard to draft and secure the waiver provision in the health reform law and I am very pleased the president now agrees that we should make it available in 2014 as originally intended. While there is a lot of work to be done, I look forward to working with Sens. Leahy, Wyden, Inouye, Brown and others in the Senate and Rep. Welch and others in the House to get this done as soon as possible."

Welch said, "President Obama's support for allowing states to innovate sooner is a good news for Vermont and all states looking to tailor health care reform to individual states' circumstances. This legislation will give Vermont a green light to lead the nation in providing quality health care at a lower cost. I'm hopeful that Democrats and Republicans alike will support this practical step to give states flexibility to achieve progress their own way."

Shumlin said, "I was excited to learn about this today during a visit to the White House. All along officials from Health and Human Services have expressed a willingness to work with us, as long as we don't compromise standards under the law. I think this is an excellent example of how we can work together to control skyrocketing health care costs and implement meaningful health care reform as soon as possible."

A fact sheet on the delegation's "State Leadership in Healthcare Act" is available here.

http://www.sanders.senate.gov/newsroom/news/?id=44a664de-8e92-43f4-a871-d26e0b5a252d


FACT SHEET

"State Leadership in Healthcare Act‟

Section 1332 of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act – the “Waiver for State Innovation” – allows states to waiver out of some of the requirement of federal health reform if they meet certain standards. The provision in the new law was authored by Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and strongly supported by Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) and Rep. Peter Welch (D-Vt.).

The Sanders-Leahy-Welch “State Leadership in Healthcare Act” moves the availability of state waivers from 2017 to 2014. This would allow a state to avoid the expense of setting up an exchange – which is otherwise required in every state in 2014 – only to dismantle it later.

The federal waiver would allow a state to:

a) Collect all the federal funding and use for financing coverage for individuals through a plan designed by and for that state.
b) Coordinates this waiver process with Medicare, Medicaid and CHIP waiver processes that may be required depending on the design of the system. The state

The federal waiver would not allow a state to:
a) Offer lower quality or less affordable care to their residents than would be available in the exchange.
b) Obtain waivers from the health insurance market reforms implemented under the law such as those benefiting ending the use of pre-existing conditions to exclude individuals from coverage or those allowing young adults to stay on their parents’ plans longer.


How does the waiver provision of the law work?
Step 1: The state passes a law to provide health insurance to its citizens.
Step 2: The Secretary of Health and Human Services and Secretary of the Treasury review the state law and determine that the plan is:

a) At least as comprehensive as its residents would receive in the exchange;
b) At least as affordable;
c) Deficit neutral to the federal government; and,
d) Covers at least as many people.


Step 3: If the federal government finds that the alternative state system meets these requirements without certain federal rules, states can get a waiver. The state plan could receive waivers from:

a) The section requiring establishment of the exchange
b) The designs for how federal subsidies would have to reduce premiums and co-pays.
c) The employer penalty for providing coverage
d) The individual mandate.


http://www.sanders.senate.gov/graphics/011411state_waiver_fact_sheet.pdf


The Affordable Care Act: Supporting State Innovation
http://www.healthcare.gov/news/factsheets/2012/02/state-innovation02222012a.html


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