Election Expectations Move Obama’s Way; Yet Rising Gas Prices Fuel GOP Pushback

More than half of Americans for the first time expect Barack Obama to be re-elected — but that won’t make it easy: Even as expectations have moved his way, rising gas prices have dented the president’s rating on handling the economy, his overall job approval has slipped back under 50 percent and he’s reverted to a dead heat in public preferences against Mitt Romney.

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Challenging as that is for Obama, perceived weakness in his Republican opposition counteracts some of these views. Fifty-four percent of Americans now expect the president to win a second term, up by 8 points from January and by a sharp 17 points from October, before employment gains breathed new life into his then-dim prospects.

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GOP — The gap between expectations for Obama in November and his current support is yet more pronounced in comparable results for Romney within his own party. Seventy-four percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents expect Romney to be the nominee. But far fewer favor that outcome: Thirty-one percent would like to see him win the nomination, essentially no more than the 29 percent who prefer Santorum. Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich trail with 15 and 14 percent, respectively.

That result marks continuing compunctions about Romney within the GOP ranks. While he leads easily in trust to handle the economy, and especially in views of his electability, he falls short in two other key areas. Leaned Republicans by 31-22 percent trust Santorum over Romney to handle contentious social issues such as abortion and gay marriage, a 12-point gain for Santorum from last month. And Romney only runs evenly with Santorum, 25 to 27 percent, on who best reflects core GOP values.

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