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When will payroll employment exceed the pre-recession peak?
When will payroll employment exceed the pre-recession peak?
by Bill McBride
Payroll employment is getting close to the pre-recession peak...this doesn't include population growth and new entrants into the workforce (the workforce has continued to grow), but reaching new highs in employment will be a significant milestone in the recovery.
The graph below shows both total non-farm payroll (blue, left axis) and private payroll (red, right axis) since January 2007. Both total non-farm and private payroll employment peaked in January 2008.
The dashed line is the pre-recession peak.
The pre-recession peak for total non-farm payroll employment was 138.365 million. Currently there are 137.499 million total non-farm payroll jobs, or 866 thousand fewer than the pre-recession peak...The pre-recession peak for private payroll employment was 115.977 million. Currently there are 115.686 million total non-farm payroll jobs, or 291 thousand fewer than the pre-recession peak. It seems likely private sector employment that will be at a new high by March.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2014/02/when-will-payroll-employment-exceed-pre.html
by Bill McBride
Payroll employment is getting close to the pre-recession peak...this doesn't include population growth and new entrants into the workforce (the workforce has continued to grow), but reaching new highs in employment will be a significant milestone in the recovery.
The graph below shows both total non-farm payroll (blue, left axis) and private payroll (red, right axis) since January 2007. Both total non-farm and private payroll employment peaked in January 2008.
The dashed line is the pre-recession peak.
The pre-recession peak for total non-farm payroll employment was 138.365 million. Currently there are 137.499 million total non-farm payroll jobs, or 866 thousand fewer than the pre-recession peak...The pre-recession peak for private payroll employment was 115.977 million. Currently there are 115.686 million total non-farm payroll jobs, or 291 thousand fewer than the pre-recession peak. It seems likely private sector employment that will be at a new high by March.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2014/02/when-will-payroll-employment-exceed-pre.html
The Spectacular Myth of Obama's Part-Time America—in 5 Graphs
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10024473838
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http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002385152
The Jobs Program That Wasn’t
Macroeconomic Advisers on the American Jobs Act, proposed a year ago:
Of course, it that had happened, Obama would be more or less a lock for reelection. Instead, having blocked the president’s economic plans, Republicans can point to weak job growth and claim that the president’s policies have failed.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/08/the-jobs-program-that-wasnt/
Macroeconomic Advisers on the American Jobs Act, proposed a year ago:
We estimate that the American Jobs Act (AJA), if enacted, would give a significant boost to GDP and employment over the near-term.
-The various tax cuts aimed at raising workers’ after-tax income and encouraging hiring and investing, combined with the spending increases aimed at maintaining state & local employment and funding infrastructure modernization, would:
-Boost the level of GDP by 1.3% by the end of 2012, and by 0.2% by the end of 2013.
-Raise nonfarm establishment employment by 1.3 million by the end of 2012 and 0.8 million by the end of 2013, relative to the baseline
Of course, it that had happened, Obama would be more or less a lock for reelection. Instead, having blocked the president’s economic plans, Republicans can point to weak job growth and claim that the president’s policies have failed.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/08/the-jobs-program-that-wasnt/
Those represent another 3 million to 4 million jobs.
Using 2007 as a benchmark for wage isn't all that useful. I mean, wages have been on a decline for decades. Here's a chart of the recovery, showing the return of private sector wages to 2007 levels, but a drop in public sector wages.
http://www.epi.org/publication/snapshot-public-sector-wages/
Increasing the minimum wages would help significantly.
NYT editorial: The Case for a Higher Minimum Wage
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10024473754
