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How Democrats can win big in 2014. (Original Post) ProSense Feb 2014 OP
No they won't brooklynite Feb 2014 #1
actually that is NOT true for all of the House seats hfojvt Feb 2014 #8
The number of "competitive" districts available isn't enough... brooklynite Feb 2014 #9
but those districts already voted for Obama in 2012 hfojvt Feb 2014 #16
Obama isn't on the ballot this year FBaggins Feb 2014 #29
...and he's a Republican. brooklynite Feb 2014 #30
It may seem like "only" 18 seats, but it's nonetheless a daunting task Art_from_Ark Feb 2014 #21
k&r... spanone Feb 2014 #2
If Democrats promise to raise the minimum to a "living wage" and can show the Republicans ... Scuba Feb 2014 #3
But ProSense Feb 2014 #7
It's too low. Still won't pay the rent, let alone buy food, clothing, etc. Scuba Feb 2014 #26
In states where it is allowed safeinOhio Feb 2014 #4
giving people something worth voting for is a big step, rehashed republican lite is not it tho msongs Feb 2014 #5
Advertise it as last chance for change RobertEarl Feb 2014 #6
Also: Marijuana. JaneyVee Feb 2014 #10
Forgot about that, and with ProSense Feb 2014 #12
I agree! B Calm Feb 2014 #28
if we actually had a plan that would create two million jobs hfojvt Feb 2014 #11
Short memory? ProSense Feb 2014 #13
except that part of it WAS passed hfojvt Feb 2014 #17
So you knew about the bill, and that it wasn't passed? ProSense Feb 2014 #18
Also, ProSense Feb 2014 #19
I thought you did not want to discuss the payroll tax cut hfojvt Feb 2014 #22
Ooh, you know the definition. Guess what: You're still distorting the application. ProSense Feb 2014 #23
I guess you are right hfojvt Feb 2014 #25
No, ProSense Feb 2014 #31
according to your graph there hfojvt Feb 2014 #32
Tell me ProSense Feb 2014 #33
you DO know that Reagan was elected in 1980, right? hfojvt Feb 2014 #36
As usual, ignoring facts, posting nonsense. Again, ProSense Feb 2014 #37
Oh, and here is a graph ProSense Feb 2014 #34
nice graph hfojvt Feb 2014 #38
No. ProSense Feb 2014 #40
Which ballot measures are going to be bring voters to the polls this cycle? Coyotl Feb 2014 #14
New York should ProSense Feb 2014 #15
Actually they need to get the minimum wage on every possible state ballot rufus dog Feb 2014 #20
If a tree falls in the forest with no media to report it, did it make a sound? That's our dilemma. freshwest Feb 2014 #24
Dropping calls and plans for bans on so called "assault weapons" would go a long way. nt shedevil69taz Feb 2014 #27
Let's see how effective ProSense Feb 2014 #35
The cards are already dealt. gulliver Feb 2014 #39

brooklynite

(94,585 posts)
1. No they won't
Mon Feb 17, 2014, 10:40 PM
Feb 2014

The Senate seats we need to hold are in Red States; the House seats we need to pick up are in the reddest of red gerrymandered districts.

hfojvt

(37,573 posts)
8. actually that is NOT true for all of the House seats
Mon Feb 17, 2014, 11:07 PM
Feb 2014
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10024494682

We only need to win 18 (net) to take back the House.

One trouble, which I alluded to, is that we need to HOLD some House seats in fairly red districts too, although I haven't enumerated them.

brooklynite

(94,585 posts)
9. The number of "competitive" districts available isn't enough...
Mon Feb 17, 2014, 11:10 PM
Feb 2014

...and they're not the type of districts that will respond to working class progressive positions. Trust me....I get briefings from Steve Israel at DCCC and I research the races thoroughly to decide where to put my money.

hfojvt

(37,573 posts)
16. but those districts already voted for Obama in 2012
Tue Feb 18, 2014, 12:49 AM
Feb 2014

or, for some, came close to voting for Obama. So they are already responding to something.

And sorry, but I am not taking anything from the DCCC on faith. The establishment always likes establishment candidates and establishment positions.

Which those professionals assure us will "win".

Just like they did in 2010.

FBaggins

(26,743 posts)
29. Obama isn't on the ballot this year
Tue Feb 18, 2014, 08:02 AM
Feb 2014

 those districts already voted for Obama in 2012

They also voted for the republican incumbent.

Thus... as the OP suggests... we need an issue with traction to overcome the inherent off-year challenges combined with an environment that is currently less attractive.



Art_from_Ark

(27,247 posts)
21. It may seem like "only" 18 seats, but it's nonetheless a daunting task
Tue Feb 18, 2014, 01:13 AM
Feb 2014

In fact, it's unprecendeted in at least the last 104 years for the party in the White House to win that many Congressional seats in a mid-term election, let alone take back the House of Representatives.

 

Scuba

(53,475 posts)
3. If Democrats promise to raise the minimum to a "living wage" and can show the Republicans ...
Mon Feb 17, 2014, 10:41 PM
Feb 2014

... are obstructing that, then possibly.


If they get the grossly insufficient $10.10 raise through by end of summer, it will be forgotten by November.

We will be very, very fortunate to hold the Senate this fall.

ProSense

(116,464 posts)
7. But
Mon Feb 17, 2014, 11:01 PM
Feb 2014

"If they get the grossly insufficient $10.10 raise through by end of summer, it will be forgotten by November."

...that is the proposal being pushed by Senator's Harkin, Sanders and Warren.

A loser?

msongs

(67,413 posts)
5. giving people something worth voting for is a big step, rehashed republican lite is not it tho
Mon Feb 17, 2014, 10:44 PM
Feb 2014

submit a new jobs bill every month if it's voted down by repubs
submit a minimum wage hike repeatedly as needed
student loan relief
immigration reform
secure social security w/out hedging
even fix obamacare

 

RobertEarl

(13,685 posts)
6. Advertise it as last chance for change
Mon Feb 17, 2014, 10:52 PM
Feb 2014

Remember how so many people came out and voted for Obama's change?

Do it again, only this time advertise it as the "Last Chance for Change".

Obama needs to do everything you say Pro Sense.
Ya think he hears you? You think he'd listen to you?

hfojvt

(37,573 posts)
11. if we actually had a plan that would create two million jobs
Mon Feb 17, 2014, 11:14 PM
Feb 2014

then why haven't we used it already?

Too attached to trickle-down maybe?

A blast from the past, that you are sure to love

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/hfojvt/164

ProSense

(116,464 posts)
13. Short memory?
Mon Feb 17, 2014, 11:19 PM
Feb 2014

"if we actually had a plan that would create two million jobs then why haven't we used it already?"

There was one.

The Jobs Program That Wasn’t

Macroeconomic Advisers on the American Jobs Act, proposed a year ago:

We estimate that the American Jobs Act (AJA), if enacted, would give a significant boost to GDP and employment over the near-term.

-The various tax cuts aimed at raising workers’ after-tax income and encouraging hiring and investing, combined with the spending increases aimed at maintaining state & local employment and funding infrastructure modernization, would:
-Boost the level of GDP by 1.3% by the end of 2012, and by 0.2% by the end of 2013.
-Raise nonfarm establishment employment by 1.3 million by the end of 2012 and 0.8 million by the end of 2013, relative to the baseline

Of course, it that had happened, Obama would be more or less a lock for reelection. Instead, having blocked the president’s economic plans, Republicans can point to weak job growth and claim that the president’s policies have failed.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/08/the-jobs-program-that-wasnt/


Heck, throw in a climate plan and add another 4 million jobs.

hfojvt

(37,573 posts)
17. except that part of it WAS passed
Tue Feb 18, 2014, 12:53 AM
Feb 2014

you know those -"The various tax cuts aimed at raising workers’ after-tax income"

The trickle down economics part of it DID pass. The accursed payroll tax cut was extended (but fortunately NOT expanded as Obama proposed).

ProSense

(116,464 posts)
18. So you knew about the bill, and that it wasn't passed?
Tue Feb 18, 2014, 12:58 AM
Feb 2014

"Except" nothing. The OP is about creating 2 million jobs. That was the purpose of the entire bill. You want to discuss the payroll tax cut...start your own thread.


ProSense

(116,464 posts)
19. Also,
Tue Feb 18, 2014, 01:04 AM
Feb 2014

"The trickle down economics part of it DID pass. "

...you clearly don't know what that means. A payroll tax cut that affects income up to $110,000 is not "trickle down economics." That's a complete distortion of the concept. This is "trickle down economics":

The top tax rate was lowered from 50% to 28% while the bottom rate was raised from 11% to 15%. [4] Many lower level tax brackets were consolidated, and the upper income level of the bottom rate (married filing jointly) was increased from $5,720/year to $29,750/year. This package ultimately consolidated tax brackets from fifteen levels of income to four levels of income.[5] This would be the only time in the history of the U.S. income tax (which dates back to the passage of the Revenue Act of 1862) that the top rate was reduced and the bottom rate increased concomitantly. In addition, capital gains faced the same tax rate as ordinary income.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_Reform_Act_of_1986

More: http://www.democraticunderground.com/10024465391#post30

hfojvt

(37,573 posts)
22. I thought you did not want to discuss the payroll tax cut
Tue Feb 18, 2014, 01:17 AM
Feb 2014

Trickle down economics is where most of the benefits go to the TOP and benefits are (in theory) supposed to trickle down to those below.

You know, like the accursed payroll tax cut

which gave

$32 billion to the TOP 10%
$55 billion to the top 20%
and only $14.5 billion to the bottom FORTY percent.

But you are right, it's not AS bad as full Reaganomics. More like trickle-down-lite.

The sort of thing you'd expect from politicians who are Republican-lite.

ProSense

(116,464 posts)
23. Ooh, you know the definition. Guess what: You're still distorting the application.
Tue Feb 18, 2014, 01:24 AM
Feb 2014

The attempt to spin nonsense seems an act of desperation. Seriously.

hfojvt

(37,573 posts)
25. I guess you are right
Tue Feb 18, 2014, 04:00 AM
Feb 2014

claiming that $55 billion is bigger than $14.5 billion is nothing but spin.

I don't know why I expected people to fall for that kind of spin.

ProSense

(116,464 posts)
31. No,
Tue Feb 18, 2014, 09:09 AM
Feb 2014

"I guess you are right"

...I'm right because claiming that a payroll tax cut, which is stimulative, is the same as "Reaganomics" is beyond ludicrous.



hfojvt

(37,573 posts)
32. according to your graph there
Tue Feb 18, 2014, 12:48 PM
Feb 2014

Reagan's "across the board tax cuts" are stimulative too.

You know what "spin" is. That's when you have policies that favor rich people - like the accursed payroll tax cut. And you find some way to sell them to the public.

Claiming that the payroll tax cut benefits the rich more than the poor is simple math. $55 billion simply IS bigger than $14.5 billion. But ooh, let's spin it as a "stimulus".

It's just a happy accident that this "stimulus" helps the rich more than the poor.

ProSense

(116,464 posts)
33. Tell me
Tue Feb 18, 2014, 12:52 PM
Feb 2014

"according to your graph there Reagan's 'across the board tax cuts' are stimulative too. "

...according to my "graph," is this "stimulative":

The top tax rate was lowered from 50% to 28% while the bottom rate was raised from 11% to 15%. [4] Many lower level tax brackets were consolidated, and the upper income level of the bottom rate (married filing jointly) was increased from $5,720/year to $29,750/year. This package ultimately consolidated tax brackets from fifteen levels of income to four levels of income.[5] This would be the only time in the history of the U.S. income tax (which dates back to the passage of the Revenue Act of 1862) that the top rate was reduced and the bottom rate increased concomitantly. In addition, capital gains faced the same tax rate as ordinary income.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_Reform_Act_of_1986

More: http://www.democraticunderground.com/10024465391#post30

"You know what 'spin' is. That's when you have policies that favor rich people - like the accursed payroll tax cut. And you find some way to sell them to the public."

Yes, and I "know what" desperation looks like: trying to portray Reagan/Reaganomics as progressive.

hfojvt

(37,573 posts)
36. you DO know that Reagan was elected in 1980, right?
Tue Feb 18, 2014, 06:52 PM
Feb 2014

and he ran on his program of Reaganomics in 1980, which was, according to your graph, the economic stimulus of "across the board tax cuts"

I am NOT the one trying to portray Reaganomics as progressive - that would be YOU. It's progressive, you say, if tax cuts that favor the rich come from Obama, because you can spin them as an economic stimulus.

MY claim, is that, using the very same spin that YOU are using, then Reaganomics was also stimulative. You know, the tax cuts known as ERTA, which were passed in 1981 and cut the top rate from 70% to 50% and the bottom rate from 15% to 11%.

What an economic stimulus.

In fact, that is exactly how that piece of excrement was sold. ERTA stands for Economic Recovery and Tax Act.

See, I think Reagan and Reaganites are full of crap when they claim that their policies which favor the rich are about economic stimulus. I demand economic stimulus which does NOT increase inequality.

And I don't change that just because a Democrat is in the White House.

Foolish consistency, eh?

ProSense

(116,464 posts)
37. As usual, ignoring facts, posting nonsense. Again,
Tue Feb 18, 2014, 06:59 PM
Feb 2014

according to my "graph," is this "stimulative":

The top tax rate was lowered from 50% to 28% while the bottom rate was raised from 11% to 15%. [4] Many lower level tax brackets were consolidated, and the upper income level of the bottom rate (married filing jointly) was increased from $5,720/year to $29,750/year. This package ultimately consolidated tax brackets from fifteen levels of income to four levels of income.[5] This would be the only time in the history of the U.S. income tax (which dates back to the passage of the Revenue Act of 1862) that the top rate was reduced and the bottom rate increased concomitantly. In addition, capital gains faced the same tax rate as ordinary income.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_Reform_Act_of_1986

More: http://www.democraticunderground.com/10024465391#post30

"I am NOT the one trying to portray Reaganomics as progressive - that would be YOU. It's progressive, you say, if tax cuts that favor the rich come from Obama, because you can spin them as an economic stimulus.

MY claim, is that, using the very same spin that YOU are using, then Reaganomics was also stimulative. You know, the tax cuts known as ERTA, which were passed in 1981 and cut the top rate from 70% to 50% and the bottom rate from 15% to 11%. "

That's simply nonsensical spin to claim that an apple is an orange, therefore Reaganomics is stimulative.

ProSense

(116,464 posts)
34. Oh, and here is a graph
Tue Feb 18, 2014, 01:05 PM
Feb 2014

"Claiming that the payroll tax cut benefits the rich more than the poor is simple math. $55 billion simply IS bigger than $14.5 billion. But ooh, let's spin it as a 'stimulus'."

...to counter that nonsense.



http://www.ctj.org/pdf/payrolltaxholiday.pdf

hfojvt

(37,573 posts)
38. nice graph
Tue Feb 18, 2014, 07:01 PM
Feb 2014

did you miss this part?

Average payroll tax cut for various groups

Lowest 60% $ –150
Top 5% $ –1,297

Compared with the making work pay credit

Lowest 60% $-394
Top 5% $-63

Yeah, that payroll tax cut totally favors the bottom and leaves the top out in the cold.

ProSense

(116,464 posts)
40. No.
Tue Feb 18, 2014, 07:18 PM
Feb 2014
did you miss this part?

Average payroll tax cut for various groups

Lowest 60% $ –150
Top 5% $ –1,297

Compared with the making work pay credit

Lowest 60% $-394
Top 5% $-63

Yeah, that payroll tax cut totally favors the bottom and leaves the top out in the cold.

Did you miss the part where the top one percent got 2. 8 percent vs. 97.1 percent for the 99 percent? Did you see that the top 5 pecent got 13.5 percent vs. 86.4 percent for the bottom 80 percent? Did you notice that the max benefit was $2,691?

Do you think that's significant for someone earning more than $1.6 million dollars?

Look again, and while you're at it, tell me who was responsible for the Making Work Pay Credit.



 

Coyotl

(15,262 posts)
14. Which ballot measures are going to be bring voters to the polls this cycle?
Mon Feb 17, 2014, 11:38 PM
Feb 2014

What's on the ballot makes a difference in off years. Any minimum wage initiatives? Marijuana legalizations?

ProSense

(116,464 posts)
15. New York should
Mon Feb 17, 2014, 11:44 PM
Feb 2014

"What's on the ballot makes a difference in off years. Any minimum wage initiatives? Marijuana legalizations?"

...follow Colorado and Washington.

New York State voters support 88 - 9 percent the legalization of medical marijuana, with overwhelming support from every group, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Voters also support 57 - 39 percent the legalization of small amounts of marijuana for personal use, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

There is a gender gap and a larger generation gap on the question of non-medical marijuana. Support is 63 - 33 percent among men and 51 - 44 percent among women. Support is 83 - 14 percent among voters 18 to 29 years old, with voters over 65 years old opposed 57 - 38 percent. Support is 65 - 32 percent among Democrats and 58 - 37 percent among independent voters, with Republicans opposed 55 - 39 percent.

- more -

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/new-york-state/release-detail?ReleaseID=2008




 

rufus dog

(8,419 posts)
20. Actually they need to get the minimum wage on every possible state ballot
Tue Feb 18, 2014, 01:07 AM
Feb 2014

Proven winner that increases turnout.

gulliver

(13,181 posts)
39. The cards are already dealt.
Tue Feb 18, 2014, 07:10 PM
Feb 2014

We should be clobbering the Republicans with their shutdown of the government and with the success of the ACA. We should clobber them on George W. Bush, the classic symbol of Republicanism. The Great Recession was their fault, and we should remind people of that. Todd Akin. Sarah Palin. The Tea Party. Killing immigration reform.

Raising the minimum wage is fine, but I don't think the voters are informed enough to see through the Republican fog machine when it comes to jobs plans. I think ACA success is going to be crystal clear by November and we need to go full speed on offense with it.

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