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BrentWil

(2,384 posts)
Sun Mar 2, 2014, 11:06 PM Mar 2014

What are Obama's Politically Realistic Options in Ukraine?

Interesting piece form politico. I think it lays out what the actual options the administration is thinking about:

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/03/russia-ukraine-obamas-options-104160.html

1) Kick Russia out of the G-8
2) Take Rubles from Russia
3) Void the visas
4) Send in the fleet
5) Give Putin Crimea, but nothing more

I think that gets it about right in what the administration is actually considering. Given these are the options on the table, would you do any? Would you do some?

I would do 1 through 4. I think one needs to deter Russia. But that is my thought.

10 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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What are Obama's Politically Realistic Options in Ukraine? (Original Post) BrentWil Mar 2014 OP
I don't honestly think Putin wants Crimea Warpy Mar 2014 #1
Actually some of that wouldn't be... BrentWil Mar 2014 #4
6. Embargo Bad Thoughts Mar 2014 #2
Stay out of the corner. nt longship Mar 2014 #3
Putin holds the cards 1000words Mar 2014 #5
One can make it painful for him... BrentWil Mar 2014 #6
Russian oil alone could make Europe quite miserable 1000words Mar 2014 #7
"Give Putin the Crimea" isn't an option Obama has Spider Jerusalem Mar 2014 #8
Of course it is... BrentWil Mar 2014 #10
Not to worry RobertEarl Mar 2014 #9

Warpy

(111,266 posts)
1. I don't honestly think Putin wants Crimea
Sun Mar 2, 2014, 11:17 PM
Mar 2014

However, the population there is ethnic Russian and the nutcases on the far western fringe of the country have written about ethnic cleansing Russians and Jews. I think he's likely to be giving a show of strength and telling Svoboda that ethnic cleansing is a very, very bad idea.

Since being bogged down in Afghanistan cost them their empire, I sincerely doubt they want to be bogged down in Ukraine. Hell, they still haven settled the Chechen mess completely.

Sabre rattling and mild trade sanctions should be it unless he escalates it to a big shooting war with the stated aim of annexing the whole Ukraine. Then the rest of the world will have to find ways to tell Putin it's a bad idea.

BrentWil

(2,384 posts)
4. Actually some of that wouldn't be...
Sun Mar 2, 2014, 11:36 PM
Mar 2014

The void visa and seizing rubble part would be reasonable painful.

 

1000words

(7,051 posts)
5. Putin holds the cards
Sun Mar 2, 2014, 11:37 PM
Mar 2014

The U.S. really has no real options, short of war and I just don't see it happening.

BrentWil

(2,384 posts)
6. One can make it painful for him...
Sun Mar 2, 2014, 11:39 PM
Mar 2014

Seizing assets, voiding visas... that will be painful. A lot of powerful Russians like to send their kids to Western schools.

 

1000words

(7,051 posts)
7. Russian oil alone could make Europe quite miserable
Sun Mar 2, 2014, 11:45 PM
Mar 2014

And I have serious doubts the U.S. economy has the vitality to endure economic warfare.

 

Spider Jerusalem

(21,786 posts)
8. "Give Putin the Crimea" isn't an option Obama has
Sun Mar 2, 2014, 11:55 PM
Mar 2014

last time I checked the Ukrainian government wasn't at the beck and call of the USA. "Engage diplomatically with Ukraine and Russia in cooperation with EU partners and encourage a peaceful resolution of issues" is a realistic option; persuading the Ukrainian government to agree to a plebiscite on the status of the Crimea is an option; "give Putin the Crimea" is not an option.

BrentWil

(2,384 posts)
10. Of course it is...
Mon Mar 3, 2014, 12:22 AM
Mar 2014

If the US doesn't support the Ukraine and Russia doesn't WANT to give it back, its a done deal.

 

RobertEarl

(13,685 posts)
9. Not to worry
Mon Mar 3, 2014, 12:18 AM
Mar 2014

Obama has got this.

Having Kerry as SoS helps a lot.

The Ukranians will decide how far Russia can go and I get the feeling it won't be far. Russia got its ass handed to it in E. Europe a short while back and they know better than to get themselves in that situation again.

Now, Fukushima? That is some thing to worry about. Did you hare the pollution from that has already been washing ashore in Canada? Yup. And there's more from where that came from.

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