General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsAs Tensions Build, U.S. Has ‘Zero Options’ In Ukraine
March 2, 2014 - 7:00pm
PBS Newshour
HARI SREENIVASAN: Whats driving Vladimir Putins thinking about all of this? What is the Russian perspective? For more about that, we are joined now by Stephen Cohen. He is professor emeritus of Russian Studies at New York University and of politics at Princeton University. Thanks for joining us.
Putin just raised the stakes a significant amount, why?
STEPHEN COHEN: We hear the American view that Putin is a neo-imperialist and a Soviet leader and hes trying to recreate the Soviet Union. Hes something fundamentally different. Remember he came to power 14 years ago and he inherited a collapsed state. Remember also that the Russian state has collapsed twice in the 20th century in 1917 and again in 1991. Putins mission as he sees it, and as the Russian political elite sees it, is to restore Russian stability, greatness at home and that includes to secure Russias traditiona, historical security zones around Russia. First and foremost, that is Ukraine.
So what Putin did when he mobilized his forces, was to say to the United States and to Europe, you are crossing my red line and I have no choice. And politically at home, and given the pro-Russian forces and sentiments in Eastern and Southern Ukraine bordering Russia, I dont see that he had a choice. Now, he has a choice of what he will do next, but that will depend on us, I think.
HARI SREENIVASAN: What are the options for the U.S. here?
STEPHEN COHEN: Zero. Zero, unless we want to go to war. Putin holds all the cards for better or worse. He holds the military cards because its his territory. He holds the political cards because a very large portion of Ukraine supports Putin, not the West. He holds the economic cards because Ukraine is part of the Russian economy. And legally youll have to ask a lawyer there is the question of whether the Russians are right is the government in Kiev which overthrew, 10 days ago, the constitutional order in Kiev and threw out the elected president is it a legitimate government whatever that word means? Putin says it its not legitimate. We havent recognized it as yet, but were acting as if it is legitimate. I dont know what a lawyer would say.
HARI SREENIVASAN: Are we following the same path of 2008 in Russia and Georgia? Where essentially this escalated into an all-out war for a few days?
STEPHEN COHEN: Youre right, there is a similarity in the sense that that two was a red line the Former Soviet Republic of Georgia. But there was something else there. First it was of much lesser importance to Russia than Ukraine because of its location and its size. Secondly, even though we always say that Russian and Putin invaded tiny little Georgia, the fact is that the war was begin, by the American-backed military forces of Georgia because they attacked Russian enclaves in Georgia.
Today, nobody fired a shot and if nobody fires a shot there is a way out. But there is a worse scenario and that is if the Russians think they have to move their troops not only into Crimea, this peninsula where their naval base is and historically part of Russia, but also into eastern and southern Ukraine as well. There will be enormous pressure for NATO to move into western Ukraine and then all bets are off.
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http://www.netnebraska.org/node/903528
gordianot
(15,242 posts)Religious wars ended and Nationalist wars took over. Then there are religious fandamentalist who seem nostalgic for religious wars.
GP6971
(31,171 posts)which I think this is slanted. Economic & Political?.......plenty of responses are available to the EU and the US. I think Putin is on the short end of stick on this one.
What's interesting is the number of Russian troops now in the Crimea. Last figure I saw was 17,000.....not exactly an overwhelming force if they intend to take eastern Ukraine. Unless, of course they pull their troops from the border.
1000words
(7,051 posts)Last edited Mon Mar 3, 2014, 10:20 PM - Edit history (1)
First, there's Europe's dependence on Russian oil and gas (Germany and Italy would suffer greatly.) The UK isn't willing to piss off the Russian oligarchs who have fortunes in London banks. Finally, China our biggest creditor has given Putin their blessing.
Putin is hardly "on the short end of the stick."
GP6971
(31,171 posts)but I think overall, over time, Russia will be the loser
1000words
(7,051 posts)than an already failed one, trying to recapture former glory.
GP6971
(31,171 posts)have a long, long way to go. I can't believe how the country has changed since I was growing up. The middle class is history in today's world.
MysticHuman
(219 posts)I wonder if the Ukrainian leaders will consider allowing Crimea to return to Russia? It certainly would give Putin his "victory" and since such a high percentage of Crimea considers themselves Russian would it really hurt Ukraine to let them go.
This might appease Putin to accept the new Ukrainian leaders and the fact that they want to move to a more open relationship with Europe.
MH