ObamaCare enrollments fell from 1.1 million in January to 942,000 in February, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) announced on Tuesday.

Still, the administration remains optimistic it will see a surge of enrollees prior to the March 31 enrollment deadline. HHS said an “action-forcing” event, like the end of an open enrollment period, “often results in a spike in enrollment activity.”

More than 4.2 million people have enrolled in ObamaCare as of March 1, HHS said.

The number of people who have actually purchased coverage is likely significantly lower. Analysts estimate that as many as 20 percent of enrollees haven’t paid their first month's premium, meaning that roughly 840,000 of that 4.2 million do not actually have insurance coverage.

The administration has also said it doesn’t know yet how many enrollees already had an insurance plan, and how many are obtaining coverage for the first time. Conservatives have cited studies that indicate many of those obtaining coverage under ObamaCare were previously insured, and argue that this means the law is falling short of its goal to enroll as many of the uninsured as possible.

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