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Proud Liberal Dem

(24,416 posts)
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 10:17 AM Mar 2014

When does ACA become a "failure"?

The right-wing/Republicans, of course, have carped about ACA being a "failure" since the day it was signed into law. According to them ACA is forcing businesses to cut worker hours, lay off workers, forcing people out of the (junk) insurance plans they supposedly love and want to keep en masse, forcing doctors to quit, killing jobs, and, basically everything bad you can think of short of ushering in the apocalypse foretold in the Book of Revelations (though I'm sure they will be accusing ACA of that as well eventually).

However, for those of living in reality (or some iteration thereof) and recognizing that much of what is occurring is more attributable to long-standing employment trends and/or insurance company shenanigans, what I am curious about is, when is ACA considered a "failure"? What are the signs and symptoms that the law is failing and might possibly need to be repealed? The right-wing/Republicans and the MSM are talking up the fact that ACA is unlikely to meet its projected enrollment by the end of this month, which may be the case but if so, then what? Is it over? Does ACA go into that much vaunted "death spiral" that analysts have previously discussed? From what I have been hearing, there are likely already enough enrollees to prevent that, so then what? The end of March comes and go and then what's the next big test for the law? At what point do critics think the the law will inherently crash and burn because of its design and structure? For me, I just don't see it happening and, frankly, I can't think of lot of things that can't be administratively or legislatively fixed for smaller issues. I can't really see the law collapsing under its own weight like the right-wing/Republicans think is likely (they hope) to happen at some point.

Opening for discussion.

39 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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When does ACA become a "failure"? (Original Post) Proud Liberal Dem Mar 2014 OP
Let's not argue on their terms at all frazzled Mar 2014 #1
I'm not trying to be/sound defeatist Proud Liberal Dem Mar 2014 #5
Look, Social Security was famously called "a fraud on the workingman" frazzled Mar 2014 #7
I didn't really know all of the historical parallels Proud Liberal Dem Mar 2014 #14
I don't like this mindset joeglow3 Mar 2014 #10
Evaluating effectiveness is not the same as declaring functioning_cog Mar 2014 #27
We really won't know.. sendero Mar 2014 #2
Most sensible appraisal I have seen here Puzzledtraveller Mar 2014 #6
It's too bad that there aren't many (any?) people in the House/Senate speaking so sensibly Proud Liberal Dem Mar 2014 #15
If America is stupid enough to elect a Republican as President--it riversedge Mar 2014 #3
Of that we can be certain Proud Liberal Dem Mar 2014 #4
in rhetoric only. they'll rebrand it as their own. unblock Mar 2014 #31
To repeal the law it will take the House, the Senate and the President. rgbecker Mar 2014 #8
Under no formulation are we going back. In fact, expect this to functioning_cog Mar 2014 #24
If the ACA doesn't meet the projected actuarial standards, it will need an infusion of $$$$$. Romulox Mar 2014 #9
No. By next year. Resets to rates happen for following year starting Dec. functioning_cog Mar 2014 #23
Rate increases aren't the only source of ACA funding. Insurers are entitled to gov't subsidy any Romulox Mar 2014 #30
link please. they don't get wads of cash from the US government up front just because. functioning_cog Mar 2014 #32
I said they may require a cash infusion this year. Your link confirms it. What are you arguing? Romulox Mar 2014 #33
my bet is that any net loss across all states and all insurers will be immaterial functioning_cog Mar 2014 #35
Tha ACA cannot fail it can only be failed n/t Fumesucker Mar 2014 #11
Something that makes me nervous PasadenaTrudy Mar 2014 #12
Sounds like some greedy fucks who don't want to functioning_cog Mar 2014 #21
I agree PasadenaTrudy Mar 2014 #29
I'd give it a year and see if people are getting the health services they need. Jesus Malverde Mar 2014 #13
Limited choice is better than no choice functioning_cog Mar 2014 #20
For the loyalists, never. 1000words Mar 2014 #16
Your mischaracterization is also being noted functioning_cog Mar 2014 #19
Rah, rah ... Go team! 1000words Mar 2014 #22
For my neice, who's life will be saved by the ACA ... never. JoePhilly Mar 2014 #26
It doesn't. Arkana Mar 2014 #17
Ludicrous position. The ship has sailed. There is no "fail". functioning_cog Mar 2014 #18
Question on that 9% of income cap HereSince1628 Mar 2014 #25
I'm not sure. But that is one tiny fraction of the population which functioning_cog Mar 2014 #28
The cap applies to middle income families, too pnwmom Mar 2014 #36
Yes, I think so, as I understand it goes into effect for people at or above the poverty level. HereSince1628 Mar 2014 #38
It's not a bludgeon to people below poverty level. They're on Medicaid. pnwmom Mar 2014 #39
Never, it is a WIN WIN. Rex Mar 2014 #34
When we have Sarah Palin standing in front of a death panel snooper2 Mar 2014 #37

frazzled

(18,402 posts)
1. Let's not argue on their terms at all
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 10:20 AM
Mar 2014

This should not even be a discussion. We must stop being suckered into responding to their false arguments, using their terms (such as "failure&quot .

At what point was Social Security or Medicare a "failure"? Never. So let's just not go there.

Proud Liberal Dem

(24,416 posts)
5. I'm not trying to be/sound defeatist
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 10:37 AM
Mar 2014

it's just the concern trolling on the ACA is just so bad out there- trotting out new polls every five seconds showing how people still don't like the law/think that it has harmed them

frazzled

(18,402 posts)
7. Look, Social Security was famously called "a fraud on the workingman"
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 10:56 AM
Mar 2014

by Alf Landon. And there was criticism from the left as well: "“In our opinion, the Wagner bill is not designed to provide social security for the masses of the people. In our opinion this bill is designed, rather, to provide security for the rich who dominate the country."

See http://billmoyers.com/content/deja-vu-all-over-a-look-back-at-some-of-the-tirades-against-social-security-and-medicare/

Its constitutionality was challenged in 1937 (and Roosevelt tried to pack the court).
And while polls showed that people liked the idea of "old age insurance," a vast percentage of the population did not understand the law at all.

We should just be concentrating on the ACA's benefits and future potential, and probably ignore the obviously political railings against it. It's the law, it's not going to be rescinded. It's already passed its constitutionality test; it's in its infancy still. I think the more we try to rebut their crazy accusations, the more average people believe there is something to the accusations.

Proud Liberal Dem

(24,416 posts)
14. I didn't really know all of the historical parallels
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 01:35 PM
Mar 2014

but it does make me feel a little better. I'm mostly worried about ACA being killed in its infancy- without really being given a chance- though I think that Republicans and their "base" are the ones the most problems with ACA but it's the polling that bothers me and them being able to use those poll numbers to hammer Democrats in the upcoming elections. I will have to say that- despite being a bit "mousy" at times about their support for the law- there are almost no Democrats in the House and/or Senate whom have committed to a full repeal of the law.

 

joeglow3

(6,228 posts)
10. I don't like this mindset
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 11:27 AM
Mar 2014

This is not related the government, our president or this bill. We should ALWAYS evaluate how something is working to determine its effectiveness. This applies in business, our homes, every facet of life, etc. It is this mindset that has led trillions in military equipment.

 

functioning_cog

(294 posts)
27. Evaluating effectiveness is not the same as declaring
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 01:58 PM
Mar 2014

Failure, packing up your tent, and going home. There will be positive effects and negative effects of this law going into force.

Those should be evaluated and acted upon.

sendero

(28,552 posts)
2. We really won't know..
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 10:21 AM
Mar 2014

.... if the ACA is a success or failure for many years. And that could also depend on whether some tweaks are made here and there.

The ACA is very complex. Lots of assumptions were made. Some of them are not bearing out at this time, but they still might.

If we can just keep the GOP from killing it, it might be a reasonable success someday.

Puzzledtraveller

(5,937 posts)
6. Most sensible appraisal I have seen here
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 10:49 AM
Mar 2014

Two opposing sides, one calls it an unmitigated disaster, they other calls it a unparalleled success. It has to be somewhere in the middle. I can say from my experience from doing HBE applications, I'm a medicaid caseworker, that it is somewhere in between. Like you said, I think some assumptions were made that are not bearing true and other miscalculations. One in particular that both co-workers and clients agree with is there was is a conflation that wanting health care equates to having the ability to pay for it, even when payment assistance is available. I have had some clients who were over the limit for expanded medicaid yet were approved for a tax credit who declined to enroll in a plan because they couldn't even afford a bronze plan after subsidies were applied. I also do SNAP, and many of the families in my caseload do not have an extra dime to spare. In the plus side, medicaid expansion in my state has made it possible for many people to get coverage who previously were not eligible.

Proud Liberal Dem

(24,416 posts)
15. It's too bad that there aren't many (any?) people in the House/Senate speaking so sensibly
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 01:37 PM
Mar 2014

It would be wondrous to see an "outbreak of sanity" like prevail this in Congress.


Proud Liberal Dem

(24,416 posts)
4. Of that we can be certain
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 10:35 AM
Mar 2014

though the right-wing/Republicans believe that it will fail (or they will make it fail) before 2017- pretty much the only time that they *might* have fully have the ability to get a repeal through (though I would argue by then, assuming the best, it will be a moot point for most people).

unblock

(52,261 posts)
31. in rhetoric only. they'll rebrand it as their own.
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 03:05 PM
Mar 2014

officially, they'll repeal obamacare and while they're stomping gleefully on its grave, they'll replace it with something barely different and celebrate it as the greatest thing since sliced bread.

rgbecker

(4,832 posts)
8. To repeal the law it will take the House, the Senate and the President.
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 10:57 AM
Mar 2014

Or, if the president vetoes a repeal, it will take an override of the veto.

Until that happens, the ACA is the law of the land. Insurance companies will have to provide health insurance to anyone who applies and pays the premium, including those with pre-existing conditions.

If the Insurance companies insist on raising rates or going out of the business, the ACA will become a mute point as Health care insurance won't be available to many who want it. At that point, it will be back to what we had, or forward to single payer, government administered Medicare for all. How bad would that be?




 

functioning_cog

(294 posts)
24. Under no formulation are we going back. In fact, expect this to
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 01:54 PM
Mar 2014

Move forward with public option and employers getting out of the insurance equation. In next five to ten years.

Romulox

(25,960 posts)
9. If the ACA doesn't meet the projected actuarial standards, it will need an infusion of $$$$$.
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 11:24 AM
Mar 2014

As early as this year.

 

functioning_cog

(294 posts)
23. No. By next year. Resets to rates happen for following year starting Dec.
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 01:52 PM
Mar 2014

So the bulk of any increase in subsidy payments by US gov. will happen throughout 2015.

You can bet DHS will be paying attention to how much insurance companies spend vs. what they projected to spend.

Romulox

(25,960 posts)
30. Rate increases aren't the only source of ACA funding. Insurers are entitled to gov't subsidy any
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 02:45 PM
Mar 2014

time certain actuarial standards are not met (the so-called "risk corridors&quot .

I'm talking about an infusion of cash from the US Congress, not rate-payers.

 

functioning_cog

(294 posts)
32. link please. they don't get wads of cash from the US government up front just because.
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 03:06 PM
Mar 2014

they have to prove their case. What actually happens is at each state exchange level, insurers who pay out less than anticipated, they kick money back in to the government program. Insurers who pay out more would receive money from the government.

There is a possibility that the people signing up across states will end up representing a variety of risk pools and will even each other out. We shall see. The penalties that kick in will also go toward payment. There is also a slight tax on all plans sold under the exchange which also creates a resevoir of cash for possibly higher risk pools.

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/DC-Decoder/2013/1205/Obamacare-What-if-not-enough-young-healthy-people-enroll-video

Romulox

(25,960 posts)
33. I said they may require a cash infusion this year. Your link confirms it. What are you arguing?
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 03:29 PM
Mar 2014

If the market ends up imbalanced, how does Obamacare address that?

The ACA provides for what are called the “three R’s” – reinsurance, risk corridors, and risk adjustment. Reinsurance is a pot of money, funded by a tax on every health plan, that helps insurers cover the costs of expensive claims. Under a recent rule change, reinsurance would pay 80 percent of the cost of claims over $45,000, down from $60,000. The ceiling is $250,000.

The program called risk corridors, available only to insurers on the new exchanges, exists to even out premiums. If an insurer takes in more than it ends up needing, it gives some of the excess to the government. If its premiums end up being too low, the government will cover some of the losses.

The risk adjustment program takes money from insurers that had healthier-than-average customers and gives it to insurers with more-expensive customers. That removes the incentive by insurers to recruit only healthy customers.

The first two risk mitigation programs are in effect for three years, 2014 to 2016. Risk adjustment is permanent.

PasadenaTrudy

(3,998 posts)
12. Something that makes me nervous
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 11:31 AM
Mar 2014

is this - - lately I've been seeing a few new specialists ( a dermatologist, an ENT) and when I call to make an appt, they ask if my blue shield plan is through Covered CA. When I say no, they then say okay then we can see you. My boyfriend has a Covered Ca plan so this worries us.

 

functioning_cog

(294 posts)
21. Sounds like some greedy fucks who don't want to
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 01:49 PM
Mar 2014

Treat at ACA negotiated rates. They are the next ones to go after in this unholy money pit of U.S. health care.

PasadenaTrudy

(3,998 posts)
29. I agree
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 02:43 PM
Mar 2014

It must be greed. The ENT I went to didn't even take my blue shield PPO. Something about contracts between the doctors and the ins. company. Great.

Jesus Malverde

(10,274 posts)
13. I'd give it a year and see if people are getting the health services they need.
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 11:36 AM
Mar 2014

All the talk is about insurance, we need to focus instead on the benefits that insurance provides.

The limited doctor selection on these full price plans is the first failure or rip off.

 

1000words

(7,051 posts)
16. For the loyalists, never.
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 01:41 PM
Mar 2014

Your "racist hatred" for the President is being noted and logged for future reference.

JoePhilly

(27,787 posts)
26. For my neice, who's life will be saved by the ACA ... never.
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 01:57 PM
Mar 2014

Her view of what failure would mean, is far more important than yours will ever be.

 

functioning_cog

(294 posts)
18. Ludicrous position. The ship has sailed. There is no "fail".
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 01:44 PM
Mar 2014

If, after the first year the risk profile for insurance companies goes up because of the makeup of people in marketplace, their premiums will go up. Because no one will be required to pay more than 9% of income on premiums, the government portion will often go up.

The federal government will be monitoring insurance companies to ensure they ate providing adequate percentage of revenue toward care.

This thing needs tweaks, and Republicans would be insane not to eventually relent, but this baby is here to stay.

Welcome to industrialized society that provides healthcare to all.

HereSince1628

(36,063 posts)
25. Question on that 9% of income cap
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 01:55 PM
Mar 2014

Isn't that only going to be for folks at or above poverty, or who live in states with medicaid expansion?

 

functioning_cog

(294 posts)
28. I'm not sure. But that is one tiny fraction of the population which
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 02:02 PM
Mar 2014

Which can have a fix implemented by Congress to address if they'd get off their black president hating asses.

pnwmom

(108,980 posts)
36. The cap applies to middle income families, too
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 03:37 PM
Mar 2014

as defined as a family of four with an income of approximately 92K. Those families will get subsidies to keep them within the cap of 9%.

But families who make more than the subsidy level of 92K won't pay more than whatever the standard amount is for a policy.

HereSince1628

(36,063 posts)
38. Yes, I think so, as I understand it goes into effect for people at or above the poverty level.
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 03:41 PM
Mar 2014

It's a bludgeon to those below it.

pnwmom

(108,980 posts)
39. It's not a bludgeon to people below poverty level. They're on Medicaid.
Thu Mar 13, 2014, 03:44 PM
Mar 2014

It's actually not a "bludgeon" to anyone, even those in states that didn't expand Medicaid.

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