I think I hear the whispers of a Snowden trade coming on.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]If you don't give yourself the same benefit of a doubt you'd give anyone else, you're cheating someone.[/center][/font][hr]

They must want him gone pretty badly.

gotten away with it all with no consequences.

Good memory. Their absence is conspicuous.

All you need to do is search on his name and see who agreed with him on Russian threads. You will be able to identify the rest of the Putinistas pretty easily.

Was Skinner being literal, that rdharma asked the admins to be banned, or that his behavior was asking for it? Fascinating in any event.

As far as I understood, they would tell people to change their passwords on their accounts to something random. Really weird.

Not that I care about that Putinist being banned, it's just weird what their transparency page says.

Lets hope none show up here..

"February 20, 2012: Russia has apparently quietly adopted the Chinese tactics of paying Internet users a small fee to post pro-government responses on message boards where the government is being criticized or maligned. For some members of the original Chinese "50 Cent Party" it was a full time job, receiving up to 50 cents (two yuan) each for up to a hundred pro-government messages posted a day, using several dozen different accounts. But most of the posters are volunteers or just do it to earn a little extra money. If you can post in foreign languages, especially colloquial English, you make more. Very few members of the "50 Cent Army" (as the mercenary posters were also known) made lots of money.

The practice began eight years ago, when Chinese propaganda officials sought ways to deal with growing anti-government activity on Internet message boards. One idea was to organize the pro-government posters already out there. The propaganda bureaucracy (which is huge in China) did so and got so many volunteers that they soon developed a test to select the most capable posters and also set up training classes to improve the skills of volunteers. Cash bonuses were offered for the most effective work. At one point, the government had nearly 100,000 volunteers and paid posters operating. This quickly evolved into the 50 Cent Army, and now the 50 Ruble Army in Russia.

The Chinese eventually realized that quality was better than quantity because the less articulate posters were easily spotted, and ridiculed, as members of the "50 Cent Army" or "Internet Apes." This was especially the case outside China. Inside China people just learned to ignore the government posters. But the more skilled Internet Apes appeared convincing to many people following Internet based discussions. The 50 Cent Army was often a very worthwhile investment.

In the United States the same techniques were adopted to push political candidates or commercial products. There it was called "viral marketing." The CIA has used a similar technique to counter anti-American, or pro-terrorist, activity on the Internet. This activity also made it easier to spot potential terrorists or potential informants."

More at link:

https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htiw/articles/20120220.aspx

I wondered whether he/she was a paid shill.

wonder if that's his long term play. I think he may go after the entire coastline, from Transinistra to the East. He may just try to take the Eastern portion so he can access Crimea by land. We'll see......

pay back the oligarchs who had assets frozen. Russia also has a $3 trillion dollar welfare fund waiting in reserve.
The government’s current official forecast for economic growth in 2014 is 2.5 percent.
From Russian news: Ulyukayev said that mass infrastructure projects paid out of the country’s $3 trillion ruble Federal Welfare Fund, expanding trade with Asia, and preferential purchases of Russian-made goods for government contracts were means to fortify Russia’s economy.

He's just not as big of an elephant as he was a decade ago.

1. Try to save up for a cow.

2. Kill your neighbor's cow.

3. Take one of your neighbor's cow.

The standard "witty" response is that a Russian peasant would prefer to choose (2), and do so with glee. Better that your neighbor be knocked down than you achieve parity. They tried (3), and that didn't work all that well. They tried (1) and that still didn't work out well. They're really back to (2). In the case of oil and gas, you can't just "kill" it. So (2) and (3) look the same.

Ukraine must be subservient. It's lesser. For it to be independent is a heresy that cannot be permitted. Moreover, nobody can be trusted, and having NATO at our borders is bad.

Ukraine might align with the West. Stop it.

Ukraine might be free of bullying by having its own oil and gas reserves. Stop it.

Ukraine might even be able to bribe the Russophile sections by increasing trade from that area, currently economically depressed. That would almost certainly mean sea-route exports. Stop it.

And what you can't stop, you impede. So they've made things hard for NATO and Ukraine.

Putin's taken away most of Ukraine's oil and gas reserves.

Putin's blocked any sea access to eastern Ukraine. It owns the Kherson Straits now, through which all maritime trade with eastern Ukraine must pass. Meaning that it can block trade and pass off the economic hardship on Russians as all the fault of the Ukrainians--after all, given the fair terms that Russia will exact for trade through the straits, the only reason for the continued economic distress will be that the fascist Ukrainians hate Russians. Even the West's economic sanctions are already being billed as being anti-Donetsk Russians. Why? Apparently Russia orders a lot of stuff from that area, and if it's under sanctions then Russia will reduce orders. See? The West really hates the Russians in East Ukraine.

The amount of gas and oil in the Black Sea is trivial for Russia. It's not "we have more" that matters here; what matters here is "they're more reliant on us now." Law of the Sea negotiations and maritime borders will take a while to sort out.

Even the hitch in South Stream will be resolved easily a la Russe: "It's 1/2015, and you're cold, Southern Europe? Well, if the big bad fascists hadn't blocked South Stream, you'd have all the natural gas you need." Then, they day after work resumes full tilt on South Stream, suddenly, without South Stream's completion, they'll be plenty of natural gas for all.

and reasoned posts I've read here lately. It's nice to see some posters looking deeper into the realities on the ground instead of just screaming "Putin bad".

And they were forced into it?

Why were 450,000 votes cast for secession in Sevastopol in a city of 340,000 people?

My suspicion is that Putin realized that if there was a two month campaign of both sides trying to convince the people which side to vote for, the side that said, "Go with us, we're going the way of Poland, the Baltic states and Czech Republic, just to name a few and joining Europe. Look at those places versus us here in Ukraine right now, or Belarus, or most of the Russian districts. Which looks better to you?"

There is no question that former SSRs and Warsaw Pact countries that left to join Europe are doing much better off. Putin was afraid of that argument being made in the campaign.

Oyyoyyoy.

274,000 voted. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_referendum,_2014

It's your fault that you didn't do adequate research

Sevastopol also includes four districts with two other cities and 29 villages.

Yes, kids were allowed to vote in some polling places.

So were bearers of Russian passports. Those "self-defence" forces that weren't Russian, which were removed as Russia removed its troops, and which Putin said demonstrated the efficiency and moral of Russian troops? They could vote.

Etc.

More than that, the news in Crimea was miserably one sided, it was clear what side the government was on (government funding is a big deal: between stipends, public housing, government jobs, and corruption, you don't want to piss off the government), and if you expressed an alternative view you had the *real* Crimean-Russian self-defence troops running around on motorcycles and wearing leather that took care of "traitors".

There's a good reason that outsider observers weren't allowed in. That even Russian allies like Kazakhstan said they wouldn't send observers.

That these could be declared "free and fair" elections by anybody causes the mind to boggle. The first Iraqi elections after the '03 war were, by these standards, exemplary models to be imitated by freedom-loving democracies the world over. (And, yes, that was sarcasm.)

Where is your "450,000 votes" coming from. I noticed you did not link.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_referendum,_2014

Get your "truth" out there.

So to claim it as a definitive source is laughable.

That is what the other poster posted. Are those definitive sources? Where are the "rigorous" links on this topic? And please cut and paste to where I said anything was "a definitive source." When you are finished laughing that is. I was unaware we have to get posts peer reviewed before posting. Maybe you should apply your standard to your own posts.

3 times the pay Ukraine did plus benefits and 1/3 the price for gas. Of course they wanted to join Russia. Most of them have always considered themselves Russian anyway. What would someone living on the Northern Mexican border do if they were offered the same deal? They would follow the money.

requires some context. 'Most of them' used to be the indigenous Muslim Tatars until they were forced onto boxcars at gunpoint by the USSR and kidnapped to central Asian relocation sites. After a couple hundred thousand of the actual locals had been taken out of the picture, Russian settlers moved in to claim those lands as their own.
So that word 'most' has some intense background. And of course they consider themselves Russians, they came from Russia in the mid 1940s to take land that had been Tatar majority for centuries untold.
Most. Always. Since when did history start in 1953?

I don't see you rushing to give the Cherokee nation back the Eastern seaboard.

Ok

I am actually of the school of thought that both peoples have been horribly and unfairly treated. However, the point is that I see DU'ers here more concerned than one with the other and acting as if they are taking up the Tartar cause. Wouldn't it make more sense to take up the cause of the Cherokees, as one may actually be able to effect real change close to home? I think people are essentially "using" the Tartars issue for their complaints against Russia and it is hypocritical when we have essentially the same thing going on at home.

A bit of irony is that the British, who the Americans overthrew in the revolution, had signed an agreement with the Cherokees not to touch the land West of the Appalachians. The Americans of course tossed that deal when they kicked the British out.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal_Proclamation_of_1763

If the Cherokees were in the news, I'm sure there would be plenty of people here taking up their cause.

The Cherokees are in the very real current news regarding the Keystone pipeline going through their reservation. http://rejectandprotect.org

great grandmother, or on the other side my step grandmother. But nice try. Two wrongs do not a right create.
Why do object to the history of Crimea being told fully? I know the history of my country and my family. But you think it is acceptable to edit the Tatars out of the Crimean story? Why is that? I never tell the story of America leaving out the brutal parts as you are doing in your narrative about Crimea 'always being Russian'. Always, meaning after the ethnic cleansing in 1944. It is you, sir, who are telling a false story, leaving out parts you do not wish to recount. It is you, not a nation or a history doing that. It is you, personally claiming that the Crimean Tatar majority never existed at all, it was always Russian majority.
You leave out the boxcars. I don't leave out the Trail of Tears.

You did. It's amazing how some DU'ers make assertions as such because someone disagrees with them on certain approaches to issues. I actually fully understand the people of any nation deserve a role in that nations government and history. However, I object to people using them for political reasons and acting as if they care about their cause suddenly because there's a new red scare going on here in the USA. You are 6,000 miles away and will probably never meet a Tartar. It reminds me of what Mark Twain once wrote, "God created war so US citizens can learn geography." Suddenly you care about Tartars.....right.

Because there are Ukrainians alive from the 1940's.

in the outcome? Nah, no way.

of wishful thinking or meant to scare Putin. I'm okay with that. In fact yesterday I was hoping there could be some way for millions of people the world over to do something together on social networks to give Putin pause. I could not think of what that would be. If BI is publishing propaganda to stop a war...I'm there.

on my list of active concerns.

Last edited Sun Mar 30, 2014, 01:58 PM - Edit history (1)

happen. Plus the Ukrainians get to live in terror.

He might like a bit more of eastern Ukraine, but I doubt he feels the same urgency as he did about the Crimea. For 200 years Russia fought the Turks, the Habsburgs and the British to secure a footprint on the Black Sea. It's their gateway to the Mediterranean. Krushchev was Ukrainian and gave away something that wasn't his to give. The Russians just took it back. Russia still terrifies the Capitalists, who are deeply involved in Ukraine for its oil and gas. Basically this seems to be about making Ukraine safe for Chevron.

So many American lives and so much American gold expended for it. A vital link between East and West.

Even worse, it was just handed back. Putin gloats over the great victory of "taking back" land that wasn't originally Russian, but Tatar, part of the empire that the USSR reclaimed.

Old fashioned imperialism versus Chevron?

And Putin won't like it when it's used against him.

We're used to talking about illegal immigration in the US. It's not much talked about in Russia, but Russia has a huge illegal immigration problem that it can't do much about at all.

Don't want to be in China and you're up near the border? The border's unguarded. Hop across and do business. China's crowded. Siberia's not.

When times are hard in China, immigration increases. Help China prosper, and you get short-term gain. And maybe a way to solve the problem. There'll be no solution.

Between Russia's demographic problem and the changing demographics in eastern Siberia, the country of Russia is in for interesting times in 20, 30, 40 years.

Their recent ascension has been because of their resource exploitation. But most of that energy flows west to Europe.

There are lots of other regions that would like a shot at European customers. They may not have the pipelines to deliver this as efficiently, but if Russia is going to be a military aggressor, they really do risk losing some of this market.

It should be enough to cause Putin to take it seriously.

Russia has a complete range of mining and extractive industries producing coal, oil, gas, chemicals, and metals; all forms of machine building from rolling mills to high-performance aircraft and space vehicles; defense industries including radar, missile production, and advanced electronic components, shipbuilding; road and rail transportation equipment; communications equipment; agricultural machinery, tractors, and construction equipment; electric power generating and transmitting equipment; medical and scientific instruments; consumer durables, textiles, foodstuffs, handicrafts.

I'm curious where you get your information? After all we are talking about the largest country in the world that is eight out of 193 in GDP.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/countrytemplate_rs.html

And they just picked up a third of Ukraines natural gas.

The thing that has returned them to power is resource extraction, not intellectual or high tech industries. Their economy lives and dies based on their ability to sell energy to the west.

Yes, of course that's not all they do in Russia. But energy and mining dominates their economy. This whole blow-up in the Ukraine was about energy agreement with Russia, after all. Putin needs Europe as energy customers, so he has to come to the table.

Yes, they have a space program. They have other advanced technologies. But the dominant factor in their economy -- the thing that has brought them back from the brink is energy -- oil and gas. That dwarfs everything else. And Putin cannot afford to lose his customers to the west. He can't even afford to lose 10% of that business. That is what the Ukraine flare-up was about.

it is the 'Great Game" and we are in it too. Of course US interests would rather have those EU dollars. That's why Russia has been looking to Asia and attempting to bypass european roadblocks. The US doesn't have the shipping ability for the natural gas yet...it's looking at 4 years to be ready for shipping with terminals in place. 8 years to be fully online enough to be able to provide a country the size of Germany with total natural gas needs. By that time Russia will have shifted direction anyway and Germany will be nearly entirely solar.

The people who will benefit financially from our chess move are the same culprits we rail against at DU everyday....big oil/gas, the neocons and their buddies, the MIC, Wall Street, Think "Tanks" and the mass media who have reignited a new cold war.

to talk.

they are looking at a significant recession. It's Russia that is in the weak position. Every new measure that President Obama puts into effect hurts them tremendously.

we couldn't know that.. but, had he no idea there would be sanctions?

thanks steve~

And they will be.

There'll be this game of sanctions that hurt, with 1 to 3 years of slight political or economic discomfort. This will be another example of how the West hates Russia, and the only way through this is to rally around the flag, the military, and the vozhd'--the leader, Putin.

At that point Russia will be back where it was as far as the world as a whole is concerned. This will be because of Putin's political acumen and Russia's greatness and power. Rack up another game of Jingo for the jingoists to play.

It's economy will have largely recovered. This will be because of Putin's wise economic policies and brilliant insights. If they take the right steps, "forced into by the West" when there's any pain involved, they may even be in better shape because they'll do things without needed the dollar or the Western banking systems. At which point the shift will be due to Putin's brilliant economic insights and wise economic policies. Note that Russia has two primary modes of being: Isolationist and imperial. "Cooperation" is not one of them, and when there is cooperation it has to be at a very high state level to ensure that the state is protected.

It will still have the Crimea and be working on developing the oil and gas reserves there--cheaper to export to Europe from there than from elsewhere, after all, and at the same price. The primary thing, though, will be to have a United Russia, One Russia, to make the nationalists happy and protect their own. And humiliate the ingrate Ukrainians. It'll make for nice vacations in Yalta, where Putin can imagine himself negotiating with Truman and Churchill. Or talking to the woman with the Spitz.

Its neighbors will understand that they must adopt the proper attitude towards Moscow. Moscow's opinion must be considered in all things. Because Russia is the indispensible nation.


The sanctions look horrendous, sure. If there's only short-term thinking and the only value that really matters is money.

except for the humiliation of Ukrainians. Russian see Ukrainians as equals and countrymen. They may shun the Western Ukrainians after the regions split but East Ukraine will be just business partners on an equal footing as always. Russians are much more pragmatic in these matters. They don't hold disdain for East and Southern Ukrainians and most likely not for even Western Ukrainians. Those right sector guys probably don't get a pass however.

A few things of note that Russia has implemented since the sanctions. 1) The DUMA is working on passing 6 month visas and removing most of the heavy fees. They have decided to open up. They had over 20 million tourists visit last year and believe the more open they are the more people will realize Russia is not the USSR. 2) They have decided to establish their own national card payment system. Visa and Mastercard have essentially shot themselves in the foot with that one and will be losing all of Russia within the next 5 years as the government is encouraging people to get the new Russian card. 3) They have implemented a new nationwide manufacturing initiative. To make things in country. Kind of what the US should of been doing instead of shipping jobs overseas. 4) They are working their oil and gas deals with Asian countries and due to the US's internet meddling those deals are pretty much a guarantee as China sees the US spying and messing with Huawei.

Essentially they are doing what Russian's always do well. Staying composed and stepping back and making decisions that they believe will be to their long term advantage. Hence the reason they are well known for being good chess players. Let's not forget where they came from suffering wise. They are used to hardship. It won't phase them.

On the other hand, just from looking at DU, we are over reactionary, emotional and waving the flag on articles written by business journals that have a vested interest in outcomes. We may want to look deeper and as much as DU'er hate RT and any Russia media outlets, it might make sense that if they truly wanted to defeat their adversary they should possibly read up on what he is up to instead of just lapping up one nationalistic side of the debate.

and the rest of the 1%

"No. No. I was just joking. Big joke in Crimea. Troops will be gone tomorrow. You Americans...always so serious. How's Michelle?"

He expected a response similar to George W. Bush's response to South Ossetia. In that situation, after giving a tough sounding speech, Bush's big response to Russian military action was to send humanitarian supplies to Georgia in a military transport plane.

I guess Bush hoped Georgians would feel a little better about losing some territory if they wrapped blankets around themselves and ate gubmint cheese.

That's it. No sanctions, no other actions.

We had one Russian businessman already weigh in saying they were told by the government, there would be some yelling for a couple of weeks and then it would be back to business as usual. That is not going to happen. Russian businesses have $650 Billion dollars in loans that they need to refinance this year and just with the sanctions already in effect that is going to be much harder and going to cost more in interest and other fees than it would have before the actions in Crimea.

Putin reached an uneasy detente with the Oligarchs in his first term, partially by scaring them by going after Khodorkovsky, their richest and most powerful member, and by assuring the rest that if they stayed out of his way, he would stay out of theirs and not impact their business http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin#First_Presidential_term_.282000.E2.80.932004.29

The results of this action in Crimea is going to impact their business and for little gain. It was a stupid thing to do and it has raised tensions between Putin and the Oligarchs who now will almost certainly lose from the enterprise.

I respond with stats and facts and you respond with nothing but "they're still in Crimea" and your guesses.

Not a direct result of sanctions, but a debt deal will now be more harrowing.

Russian uniforms and an all-expenses paid vacation in Chechnya.

Here in the US we have a saying: "You deserve the government you vote for."

Congrats, Crimeans.

So to be fair they weren't included but when they turn 18 they get conscripted.

Unless they are in college and then they get to bypass it.

Those who voted for it in Crimea likely didn't get that part of the picture since the basic message was that every thing would be the same but they'd get better pensions.

Oh well... maybe they'll get upgraded to First Class on their flights to Chechnya.

Way to fucking GO Crimea! Ship your young treasure off in Russian Uniforms, bring them back in body bags and caskets.

Vote for the Putin! He promises free travel! Oops; wait, the vote's over. Crimeans? You're FREE. Free of the tyranny of the Ukraine. Welcome to Russia.

Frying pan, Fire... you know the rest. The Crimeans are Russians now. Problem is... they're Russians with NO SENIORITY. Hence... A FREE TRAIN RIDE TO CHECHNYA.

None of the under 18 year olds voted. So they basically get to get conscripted without even having a say for it. Then they get relocated to Chechnya. That's the most odious thing about the vote.

No telling how many voted, but it was widely reported that at least some "children" voted.

You were right the first time. Even if that contradicts the official Crimean narrative.

I can't seem to find anything to suggest there is much going on right now.

"Down in the Caucasus, a lot of the actual fighting was between non-Chechens (al Qaeda types) and Russian commandos (GRU Spetsnaz.) Some 80 percent of the Chechen casualties are inflicted by the spetsnaz teams, who were the only troops that regularly patrolled the mountains where the Chechen rebels and their foreign allies hid out. Most of the dead and captured rebels were not Chechens. They were foreigners, many of them Arabs. This had largely quieted down by 2009, but the GRU spetsnaz were still doing six month tours down there and not feeling appreciated."

http://strategypage.com/htmw/htsf/articles/20140325.aspx

when there are guns at your throats.

growing before this...yet they had a 2.8% growth rate. Before the economic collapse they had a 8% growth rate from 2002-2008. The US had a 3.1% growth rate and the UK 2.4%. It seems they are all barely growing if one follows the logic of this article.

the article wasn't about the size of the economy. It was in reference to the growth rate. Of course US GDP is higher. That is irrelevant. It is not us vs them.

One other point...we have $16 trillion dollars of debt to foreign countries coincidentally. Russia has a $550 billion surplus in that regard plus a $3 trillion dollar state welfare fund.

The ability to pay your bills is the determining factor. Bills are paid by issuing bonds and paying them off.

Russia's Fitch rating is negative: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_credit_rating

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-24/putin-s-debt-is-junk-to-traders-on-crimea-russia-credit.html

Putin fucked up. He needs to get his house together. He needs to crack down on the oligarchs. Shit is going to hit the fan. I wouldn't be surprised if in a year or two Crimea wants to rejoin Ukraine.

The natural gas in the Crimean peninsula alone is enough to prop up Crimea. Plus, once agin, all of their pay and benefits just multiplied. Russia is a part of the world economy. You have to be realistic about these things. They are not going under. The Asian deals ensure they are going up or at the least staying even regardless of Western "business' news articles.

The proven reserves in Crimea are meager at best, they're offshore for the most part, and are not likely to be online for many years yet, if ever. EU has ramped up its sustainable roadmap thanks to Russia's leveraging and it's likely natural gas has little influence in 5 years.

Time will tell, but I frankly can't see Russia coming out on top here. They need to invade Ukrainian proper, but that in itself is very risky, because if they don't take over the eastern reserves, they are screwed. (Note: most of Ukraine reserves are in the west.)

A little bit of "Putinista" news for ya. The whole conflict was over natural gas/fracking. The US is now the worlds leading producer due to new fracking techniques. The whole US fossil fuel industry is touting it as the energy of the century. They are aiming to have Europe up and running with natural gas within 8 years. The supply and distribution technology is currently not in place but they estimate it will take 4 years. Of course Russia is doing the same thing and signing deals in Asia, Africa and South America. Japan is also part of the deal for Russia. Read the Pepe escobar article in Asia Times Online.

Something that is having a better impact that the US and Russia should both look deeper into is affordable, convertible photovoltaic tiles such as German is leading the way on. That is truly the way of the future. Unfortunately for the US the republicans are doing all they can to slow down that train. http://www.cnet.com/news/got-a-deck-solar-panels-now-a-plug-in-appliance/

Once they get down to $500 a piece I'll be picking up a dozen and be kicking the monopoly state power companies have. Twelve of them will power a normal home, plug straight in on an extension cord and pay themselves off in less than 3 years thereby making your electric company a thing of the past. They are still too pricey at the moment, roughly $900 a piece, but like TV's they will be coming down in price soon.

Got an email yesterday from a place that recommends small entrepreneurial stuff - was a giant publicity piece for the United States having so much gas and oil that we would all have fantastic lives due to the wonders of fracking. I unsubscribed.

Last edited Sun Mar 30, 2014, 01:19 PM - Edit history (1)

I can't wait till green energy is fully affordable for everyone. I really wish the US was doing more to usb it instead of subsidizing fossil fuel companies that offshore all their taxes. Here's the You Tube videos of one of the leading German companies.

http://www.youtube.com/user/miniJOULE1

In the US, the Republicans have been working for decades to derail solar and other sustainable power sources. The fossil fuel industry gives huge amounts of money to the GOP to protect its interests. Utility companies are also doing everything they can to block their customers from switching to solar or wind power.

Depending on a huge nationwide energy grid is extremely risky. Some time in the late 1990s I believe there was a major blackout affecting the northeastern US and parts of Canada -- because of a squirrel. I used to work for a segment of the energy industry and came to see that distributed generation -- small-scale power grids or individual power generation -- is much less vulnerable to security threats and natural disasters.

the Republicans have even been pushing for bills like the one in Georgia that would require people who tap their solar into the grid to have to pay a penalty fee. Georgia Power and the Republican party being one and the same of course. They are trying to slow down that train, but it's coming and they know it. What needs to stop happening is government subsidizing of the fossil fuel industry. Those subsidies need to go into solar. I do think Obama is working hard on that. He needs to get even more money to the states for green tax breaks.

EU isn't going to rely on Russia's gas. For the very reason that Russia uses it as a leverage.

Junkies can't just quit.

I was saying that Russia needs to invade Ukraine to get the gas.

that's wishful as in "quagmire" was wishful. I'm sure you remember.

This got my interest a while back:
http://edition.cnn.com/2010/US/09/24/russia.uranium.company/

So I started watching the topic. I should have posted the back stories (which just kept multiplying by the dozens) as they happened, but now it's a book.

Long story short is that Russia has been far, far more aggressive in locking up a hegemony based on gas/nuclear/oil than I've seen anyone, anywhere give them credit for. It's always been a ham-fisted move backed by oligarchs, but it turned more aggressive about a year ago, ramping up again in the summer. I'm still not quite sure specifically why then.

Here's one non-Ukrainian example. No one imagines Belarus grumbling. From August:

http://business.financialpost.com/2013/08/27/uralkali-russia-belarus/
http://business.financialpost.com/2013/08/30/russia-bans-pork-imports-from-belarus-as-dispute-over-potash-ceos-arrest-escalates/
http://belarusdigest.com/story/belarus-russian-energy-needle-16594

And another which is more ambiguous. In November Russia lost a play for new reactors at Cernavodă (a story in itself), but then quickly offered $14B in loans for PAK2, which was even more quickly approved without debate, even though Hungary doesn't really need it, almost certainly can't pay for it, and hasn't even publicly released the repayment details. Smells fishy, right?

With prices and demand still flat, it's almost certainly a matter of keeping Ukrainian gas off the market (which would also weaken political control) than it is the typical resource exploitation from an extraction industry we're accustomed to.

If Ukrainian gas was valuable to Russia, it would have been developed already. The point is to have too-cheap Russian gas with the political liabilities and opportunities for corruption that it presents. If you really want a trip down the rabbit-hole, look how the system of payoffs and paybacks works as that cheap gas is sold down-market, to the chemical industry for example, which is so inefficient it can't sell to the international market, only back to Russia.

So, a lesson for Americans. Our too-cheap gas and too-cheap electricity has bought us too-cheap wages, the Bushes, and the Koch Brothers. And I wonder where they got all that money.

And for anyone who needs a twitter-version view of what's going on there, it might help to think of Putin as the new Koch brother. Only with an army. And nukes, both kinds.

I would sincerely doubt that. The austerity measures Ukraine will face as a result of the IMF and EU loans which are a matter of record. The extent to which Ukraine's own population are aware of those measures is currently suspect.

The long term funding requirements to completely cover the transition Ukraine has chosen to make being c. $220 billion they won't come out the other side for 10 - 15 years by which time they will be almost wholly foreign owned. There won't be much for Crimea to return to.

I admit it is unlikely. But Russia is in a bad place.

Hence the reason the EU doesn't want to announce the full measures before the election there. Once candidates run platforms on some of those measures they would sink like a ship with a hole in it. They want them running on clean slates because when the real austerity comes down there's going to be new riots. The EU has even admitted this themselves.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/28/world/europe/ukraine-bailout.htm Link not working. Please use long link below.

Excerpt:

Senior Western officials said on Wednesday that the loans from the United States and from the I.M.F. would be structured to get the government through its first few months without undue political upheaval, putting off some of the more difficult changes until after the May election.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/28/world/europe/ukraine-bailout.html?hpw&rref=world&action=click&module=Search®ion=searchResults%230&version=&url=http%3A%2F%2Fquery.nytimes.com%2Fsearch%2Fsitesearch%2F%3Faction%3Dclick%26contentCollection%3DOpinion%26region%3DTopBar%26module%3DSearchSubmit%26pgtype%3DBlogs%23%2FIMF%20Ukraine%2F7days%2Fallresults%2F1%2Fallauthors%2Fnewest%2F&_r=0

:kick:

China's is largely industrial production. They export labor. Bring in raw materials, add value, export the goods. There's high quality labor and low quality labor. China specialized in low-quality labor. No special skills needed, so its cheap.

Some countries' economies are largely agricultural. That's labor, almost all low quality, but also a lot of raw materials. It's a way of exporting sun and water with the labor.

The US' includes a lot of services and financial products. R&D was recently included in GDP--it used to be a "cost of doing business." That makes for an artificial bump. But the US economy is fairly balanced--some paper pushing, some manufacturing, some agriculture, some services. Probably too much "service" at present, but still there's a reasonable mix.


Venezuela's GDP, like Russia's, is largely based on digging up something from the ground and selling it unprocessed. As the recession ends, Russia digs up more and sells more. It's an economy, but resource based: remove oil from the mix, and it imports a lot more than it exports. Russia had a huge manufacturing base in '91 but it was obsolete. It still exports weapons and nuclear power technology. (Yes, even after Chernobyl'.) As long as the economy was closed, it could be huge. It needs updating. It's also hugely corrupt, meaning that its hard for companies to invest in Russia.

but keeping it will be far less so. I guess they didn't learn from their rout in Afghanistan.

Lot of that going around, I doubt anybody at the Pentagon learned a thing from either of Stupid's wars.

"enduring" seems to cover a large part of Russia's history. Almost like they invented the "Rope-a-dope" defense.

I bet Putin has enough chutzpah to nominate Sevastopol to host a summer Olympics.

I don't know if the U.S. has any specific interests in Crimea, but I hope we don't escalate beyond sanctions.

-Laelth