General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsThe situation in Ukraine. My take.
Believe what we will about the geopolitics, but we have to recognize the fact that the "East" (and Crimea) perceives that the new government is fascist and that is an extremely emotional thing regarding their history. Regardless of how anyone feels that is a reality that needs to be recognized, because "cracking down" when the people of the region already have this view will just heat things up.
People are imperfect and they are emotional, irrational at times: but the people in both the east and west have their own legitimate concerns and it seems like the key is not to continue to demonize but to recognize where things are at and find a way to compromise or find a solution. Anything else seems destined to move closer to civil war?
ballyhoo
(2,060 posts)WW3, which if there is anyone left to trace anything, will be traced back to Victoria Nuland and her attempt to stir crap. Putin has to go forward for it is his last chance to do so, and with the US more weak than it has ever been in my lifetime, it is an ideal time for Putin to resurrect the SU. And what can the US actually do? I do not see things as emotionally as you apparently do anymore. Yes, I care but I see grand schemes operating and they are too strong to stop. And these grand schemes all involve world banks.
Catherina
(35,568 posts)Ah yes banks.
It's beyond ludicrous to recognize the overthrow of a democratically elected government by violent rightwing musclepower and then complain when Ukrainian citizens resist their future being signed away by a junta in Kiev that no one voted for.
Check this site out. It was set up in 2007 and is beyond amusing. The "Arseniy Yatsenyk Foundation Open Ukraine". Its partners are hilarious too (NATO, National Endowment for Democracy, US State Dept, Chatham House, Oligarch Victor Pinchuk of the Davos Philanthropic Roundtable, International Renaissance Foundation, The Black Sea Trust(German Marshall Fund of the United States), and hedgefund vultures Horizon Capital, SwedBank, who are already plundering Ukraine with the privatization deals that never make the US press.
I especially love the NED's Reagan-Fascell Democracy Fellowship they had going right before the "spontaneous" EuroMaidan uprising.
http://en.prostirzmin.com.ua/forum/287
Several of their fellows are press people since the program targets "democratic activists, scholars, and journalists".
The Reagan-Fascell Democracy Fellowship Program is an international exchange program named in honor of NEDs principal founders, former president Ronald Reagan and the late congressman Dante Fascell. Funded by the U.S. Congress, the fellowship program supports democratic activists, scholars, and journalists from around the world to undertake independent research on democratic challenges worldwide.
http://www.ned.org/fellowships/reagan-fascell-democracy-fellows-program
Like this little fellow Sergii Leshchenko.
The same elites who fucked us over (and aren't done with us yet, Detroit was just a test run), who are fucking over the European people, are the same ones doing this to Ukraine.
"something stranger than living in the bubble even" as bemildred put it earlier.
polly7
(20,582 posts)ballyhoo
(2,060 posts)goes into effect July 1, 2014, it's going to be a whole new ballgame and folks are going to know all about banks. They control everything and need something big to happen. Personally, I think Putin and maybe someone else is involved with a banking cartel trying to solve a bunch of problems all at once. Been debating it for three days now so going to take a pass. Have certainly enjoyed your reports over the years. You could have actually done this for for money...oh, there we go...banks again. Can't get away from them.
Catherina
(35,568 posts)about banks and the US. It's the same cry against banks in every Western country right now. It takes real delusion to pretend there isn't a capital connection.
Latest rant here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/10024827979
Thanks for your kind and generous compliment
TBF
(32,062 posts)and I am no Putin lover.
There are points in Russian History that I am in love with - like the Russian Revolution for example - but I view Putin as a thug.
Nevertheless the EU/US need to take their austerity elsewhere. I'll give them a hint: 85 people on this planet control most of the wealth. Why not go to them for $$$?
http://www.forbes.com/sites/laurashin/2014/01/23/the-85-richest-people-in-the-world-have-as-much-wealth-as-the-3-5-billion-poorest/
arely staircase
(12,482 posts)joeybee12
(56,177 posts)Find yesterday's post and stop believing Putin propaganda.
newthinking
(3,982 posts)resolving this. You missed the point of the OP unfortunately.
And they obviously did not have a good methodology anyway on that report and it was political.
News in Ukraine is under heavy control by the new administration and reports of violence are all distorted into the frames of the geopolitics, if they are even reported at all.
Even so, there is plenty of evidence that *both* sides have provoked incidents that harmed civilians, journalists etc. At this point everyone is emotional and frightened in the population.
joeybee12
(56,177 posts)I did not misread, you misspoke/wrote...you did not say a few...you gave a blanket statement.
newthinking
(3,982 posts)Don't you think it is a little provocative that Right Sector and Svoboda are in high positions in the government still? Over National Security no less? Can you explain from those media sources why they are still there and allowed to oversee the troops that are being sent into Eastern Ukraine?
It is easy to dismiss information that is true but is not in the media with the current narrative (propaganda). But my sources are not RT. I have dug extensively and most of my posts on this board that verify have been from progressive news sites. Be careful about accepting the narrative we are being givin, because potentially millions of peoples lives are at risk.
The same UN that kicked out Kofi because he disagreed with Bushco and replaced him with that South Korean puppet. Please. Just give thanks that the Security Council still exists.
LiberalEsto
(22,845 posts)by being manipulated with Russian propaganda not unlike our Fox "News." The use of the term "fascist" is intended to push people's buttons, just like the use of "commie" in the U.S. It is just a b.s. excuse.
Putin wants to take back all of what used to be the Soviet Union. This sneaky, bit-by-bit capture of Ukraine by his terrorists is part of his plan. He doesn't want to compromise and he has demonstrated that clearly. How can Ukraine compromise with a Russia that has no intention of compromising?
Putin's idea of compromise is to aim a group of tanks at a given area and claim it. This is not compromise. This is a euphemism for invasion and conquest.
Xithras
(16,191 posts)Ukraine has been struggling with the concept of Ukrainianization since the 1990's. Many Ukrainian nationalists want everyone in Ukraine to be "Ukrainian", which means speaking Ukrainian, writing Ukrainian, and accepting ethnic Ukrainian social norms. For a while, the Ukrainian government even officially endorsed and legislated the concept of "Ukrainianization" to further this goal. This, clearly, is a problem in regions that have been Russian speaking for centuries, or that are of Greek, Russian or Romanian heritage (some of which predate the existence of the Ukrainian people and nation in some regions).
Yankuvych, for all his problems, accepted the idea of a multilingual, multicultural Ukraine. He opposed Ukrainianization, supported laws that ended or undermined it, and tried to end the impression that the Ukrainian government was trying to stamp out minority cultures. Those who replaced him have historically been on the side of the Ukrainian nationalists, and when one of their first acts was to strike down a law granting status to minority languages, it immediately stoked fears that the "bad old days" were back.
It's not just propaganda that is driving the people, but genuine fear that their culture and language is going to be attacked or marginalized.
Iterate
(3,020 posts)Australian Broadcasting Corporation
Broadcast: 15/04/2014
Reporter: Emma Alberici
Video and Transcript
...
EMMA ALBERICI: Reports say as many as 10 towns and cities in the east have now been seized. How much of the country do you suspect Russia wants to take?
TARAS BEREZOVETS: We have evidence this is from Ukrainian intelligence SZRU, who says that several Russian intelligence officers have been already captured in eastern regions of Ukraine and in Kiev itself and according to the plans, interrogations which have been made with Russian military agents, Russia has a plan to split Ukraine in three parts. Basically the plan is about they're not going to go any further in western parts of Ukraine, so called the Halychyna, it's 70 Ukrainian regions, they're planning to occupy southern and eastern regions which probably they're going to organise some sort of referendum which was held in Crimea three weeks ago in order to create some sort of independent Donetsk state in this regions.
As for the central Ukraine, including Kiev, Russia has a plan to organise some sort of independent Ukraine, planning to bring former president Viktor Yanukovych again. Russia's State Duma deputy Vladimir Zhirinovsky, stated yesterday that according to the Russian plans Yanukovych is planning to be back in Kiev with Russian troops by 1st of May.
...
EMMA ALBERICI: And finally, both the 'New York Times' and the 'Guardian' have asked in recent headlines if Ukraine might be the next Yugoslavia. From the US and the European perspective, are there lessons from Yugoslavia to be considered today in Ukraine, do you think?
TARAS BEREZOVETS: I think this crisis, if everything happens like it happens these days, this crisis would be well a huge catastrophe both, for Ukraine, for Russia and for European Union. Because in this case we would see millions of refugees fleeing, well escaping from Kiev and central Ukraine in direction to European Union. And I think the size of this catastrophe would be that big that circumstances of this war we can feel in 20 or 30 years.
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2014/s3986396.htm
People seem to have quickly forgotten that the Original or Cardinal Sin for Ukraine was simply asking for a relatively low level trade Association Agreement with the EU, an agreement which had been initialed two years ago after four more years of negotiation. It would not preclude trade with Russia, but it would necessarily preclude a Customs Union Agreement with them.
A sovereign nation making a trade agreement: that's it, that's all it took. People had an expectation that it would be completed.
LiberalEsto
(22,845 posts)Bodhi BloodWave
(2,346 posts)but wasn't it the EU who basically told Ukraine that they had to chose them or the ruskies on the trade deals?
I seem to recall the leader at the time wanted trade agreements with both and Putin/Russia wasn't against the idea(and if my memory is correct he then opted for the ruskies one)
Iterate
(3,020 posts)Even the lower level EU Association Agreement is a fairly comprehensive document that goes beyond trade and includes clauses on the respect of human rights and democratic principles.
It also offers an initial path to membership that can take a decade (or much more) to complete, with many defined steps, covering agreements and synchronization on eveything from TV signals to courts and due process, roads, rail, right to healthcare --everything, every bit of minutiae that describes a modern, democratic, progressive society with a single open market, multiple economic models, and common laws. And it's all voluntary. No one is coerced into joining. Old conflicts must be settled. If there was any one handbook for peace and social health, that would be it.
Even with full membership there's no slacking -you've got to keep your house in order. Even Germany gets "shape up" letters from the commissioners.
How tough is it? Well, none of the states would make the grade. Not a chance.
The 650 page Association Agreement was completely incompatible with the Russian Eurasian model. The EU didn't say "either/or", they rejected trilateral talks and said sign or don't sign.
I was looking at some articles about Belarus tonight and noticed this, from May 2012.
http://belarusdigest.com/story/lukashenka-russia-cannot-strangle-belarus-9489
jeff47
(26,549 posts)Those evil fascists make up 8% of Ukraine's government.
To perceive that the overall government is fascist because 8% of it is a right-wing party is buying into a lie. But it's lovely propaganda when one's goal is to "find a way to compromise" instead of just getting out of the country you invaded.
Clearly, we should have found a way to compromise so that we could have stayed in Iraq and Afghanistan. But people were just too imperfect and emotional, irrational.
newthinking
(3,982 posts)But don't let that fact interrupt your vision.
As long as Right Sector and Svoboda leaders are in Administering the Security in the country I don't think that you can say that they are an insignificant factor.
Why are they still in those positions? Can you explain that? Why is the PM on the widely distributed video beating a manager in a TV station, and on the video trying to beat the opposition MP a week ago, still in power and still the chairman of the media oversight committee in the country?
jeff47
(26,549 posts)So which parts of Iraq and Afghanistan should we have retained? Just a few compromises, and we could have kept a nice chunk of the Kurdish territories in Iraq. The NW of Afghanistan is more pro-western than the rest of the country, so a compromise should have given us that.
Or maybe trying to attack Kiev as the source of the problem is about as logical as attacking Kabul and Baghdad as the source of those problems.
They can only do what the law lets them, which requires more than 8% to change. So far, there are no credible reports of them operating outside the law.
Why should they be forbidden to hold those positions? Do you have any evidence of wrongdoing?
Because there isn't a PM. There's an interim PM who will be replaced after the election.
Want a new PM? Good news! The process is already started.
newthinking
(3,982 posts)after having been threatened by neo Nazis. The video below is what happened before the changeover. They threatened the opposition and their families. This was integral to the collapse of the existing government.
Here is a video of the PM. Tell me how he can still retain his position, since it is afterall the leaders of the parties that choose MPs, they are not voted in individualy. The fact that they are still there says a lot and Ukrainians are not stupid.
Why do you think that some of the army there are defecting? People of all political colors there are questioning. Of course since they control the media you won't know that just by viewing mass media. You have to dig to learn what is going on.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)'Cause there's Republicans threatening Democrats. So clearly we have no free elections. Also, there are no free elections in any other country on the planet.
They aren't. RT lied to you again.
Go look at all the later stories, where it turns out the "defectors" are on their way home, sans their APCs. They refused to run over the civilians, and thus handed over the APCs and walked home.
newthinking
(3,982 posts)Your numbers are also off a bit. Those organizations have grown since the 2010 elections. In addition Right Sector wasn't even around until last fall.
So then, can you answer, if they are so "insignificant", how did they get key executive positions with heavy power over the country?
As I mentioned Svoboda and Right Sector (they didn't even have MPs?) are the executive heads of Defense and National Security
A Svoboda leader is the Prosecutor General. Why did they even place these people in those positions? That says a lot.
Unfortunately our media "stupifies" people and polarizes them with the narrative around Russia, but that leaves a lot of the situation uncovered.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)instead of questioning what could happen maybe if someone did something that they could possibly think about doing.
If you have evidence of wrongdoing, talk about it. If you have fears that wrongdoing might possibly happen someday in the future, then you love our case for invading Iraq.
What political party does our current Defense Secretary belong to?
It's almost like party membership isn't required for such a position.
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)Russia has the closest merger of corporation and state (not to mention organized crime, corporation and state) in the world. They have one of if not the most widespread problems with ethnocentrism, religiocentrism, antisemitism and homophobia in the world. There are widespread problems with journalists who oppose the regime being murdered or disappeared.
The person in charge of Russia for all intents and purposes is a strongman who has been in charge for the last 14 years and engaged in a pretty transparent effort to hold onto power past the consecutive term limits for President in the country by having his deputy run for President in the interim while he held on to the real power barely behind the scenes.
newthinking
(3,982 posts)As long as Right Sector and Svoboda leaders are in Administering the Security in the country I don't think that you can say that they are an insignificant factor.
Why are they still in those positions? Can you explain that? Why is the PM on the widely distributed video beating a manager in a TV station, and on the video trying to beat the opposition MP a week ago, still in power and still the chairman of the media oversight committee in the country?
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)newthinking
(3,982 posts)it will lead people to be skeptical. I am not arguing the validity of emotional arguments.
Neither you nor anyone else though, has answered what is very problematic. Why are these right sector and Svoboda people still in such executive positions? If there is no sympathy for their views than why are they allowed to run National Security?
I can't believe you would think that having them in those positions does not impact seriously the situation. Ukrainians are not stupid.
Instead of countering that you don't think anyone has anything to worry about, please explain how you feel this is appropriate and not incendiary?
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)homophobic.
newthinking
(3,982 posts)I don't like Putin but I refuse to get caught up in the geopolitical narrative. So I see your comments as deflecting from answering in intellectual honesty. For every post that you post about Russian homophobia there are also the same things in the current administration. But are you willing to answer what was a legitimate question?
Homophobic Stances of the current administration:
New Ukraine President
In August 2007, Turchynov replied to the accusation that his stance on same-sex marriage is typically conservative, "I do not agree. If a man has normal views, then you label him a conservative, but those who use drugs or promote sodomy, you label them a progressive person. All of these are perversions".http://web.archive.org/web/20080820220202/http://www.lgf.org.uk/news/research-2/overview-of-lesbian-and-gay-rights-in-eastern-europe/
Oleksandr Turchynov is an elder in a conservative Evangelical Church. We know how Evangelical Churches view gays.
Ukrainian PM
Ukraine Opposition Surprises Supporters by Denouncing Gay Marriage (Fatherland leader and now Prime Minister)
http://www.prnewswire.co.uk/news-releases/ukraine-opposition-surprises-supporters-by-denouncing-gay-marriage-198940821.html
Svoboda is heavily anti-gay
Member of parliament Ihor Miroshnychenko asked the head of the Kiev City State Administration Oleksandr Popov on 7 March 2013 to ban an LGBT march that was held the next day because he believed it would "contribute to promoting sexual orientation" and he further stated in his request "homosexuality provokes sexually transmitted diseases and AIDS".[98] The 8 March rally was in fact not an LGBT march but organized by feminist organizations.[99]
Need we even mention the further right parties?
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)that has nothing to do with anything regarding the cold war. It has to do with being antisemitic and homophobic.
newthinking
(3,982 posts)stevenleser
(32,886 posts)I stand on my contention.
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)I mean, 'Bagger Ted Cruz is a Senator. Does that mean the U.S. Government is a TeaBagger government?
LiberalEsto
(22,845 posts)Not to mention racism and misogyny
qazplm
(3,626 posts)so that makes them the good guys automatically.
Response to stevenleser (Reply #5)
newthinking This message was self-deleted by its author.
LittleBlue
(10,362 posts)That same source lists Ukraine at $3,867.
http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2014/03/russia-and-ukraine-facts-of-the-day.html
Aside from the shared ethnic background, it's no secret why Crimea and now east Ukraine want in. No different than Mexicans who want to come to the US and get many times the wages they receive in Mexico.
Tommy_Carcetti
(43,182 posts)LittleBlue
(10,362 posts)Do you think they'd vote to stay in Mexico if they could join the US? Difference is, the eastern Ukrainians are ethnic Russians
Tommy_Carcetti
(43,182 posts)Don't know if you knew that or not.
LittleBlue
(10,362 posts)And enough of the rest would like their pensions tripled.
If Ukraine had confidence they'd vote against joining Russia, they'd allow the referendum to embarrass Putin. Think of the headlines: "Ukrainians tell Putin: NO!" all over the world. But they won't because they know eastern Ukrainians would rather be part of a rich, stable state rather than this impoverished joke.
Tommy_Carcetti
(43,182 posts)And sending in militants welding AK-47s and grenade launchers to seize government buildings isn't necessarily the best way to get an issue on the ballot, wouldn't you agree?
But your ability to speak for the desire of Eastern Ukrainians is noted.
LittleBlue
(10,362 posts)17% is precisely 1/3 of the way there. Now they just need to find 34% of people who would rather quadruple their income than remain impoverished and unemployed.
Face the facts: Ukraine fears a referendum because they know eastern Ukraine wants out.
Tommy_Carcetti
(43,182 posts)...to discuss referendums or proposals on greater regional authority in Eastern Ukraine.
But the green men with the AK-47s and the grenade launchers don't want that. They want Russia.
Funny though....for 22 years, Ukraine has been an independent nation. And up until this February, there was no major push for independence in Eastern Ukraine. Certainly there was no push for Eastern Ukraine to join Russia.
Then, after the turmoil in Kyiv and when the Ukrainian government is beyond all doubt at its weakest and must vulnerable state it's ever been in....suddenly there's this great push for secession and annexation. You cannot ignore the huge bear that is in the room.
LittleBlue
(10,362 posts)Discussion like the Israeli-Palestinian discussions?
Discussions aren't necessary, just hold a referendum. Straight up vote: Ukraine or Russia. Simple. They won't because they know the outcome.
Tommy_Carcetti
(43,182 posts)A country shouldn't be forced against its will to cede part of its land to a neighboring country.
LiberalEsto
(22,845 posts)LiberalEsto
(22,845 posts)in the U.S. have the "right" to secede too?
Wow.
LittleBlue
(10,362 posts)would you agree that a referendum is fair?
Tommy_Carcetti
(43,182 posts)...where it is being asked to cede part of its country to its neighbor, especially a neighbor with a centuries long history of attempting to meddle, dominate and interfere with that country's affairs.
Now an referndum for independence? Perhaps....if it weren't being demanded by a small group of armed thugs.
But let's be totally honest here. Those armed thugs have zero interest in wanting to become their own independent nation. You see the flags they are flying. They want to become part of Russia.
LittleBlue
(10,362 posts)No matter how many eastern Ukrainians want to join Russia, even if it's 90%, they should be prohibited from doing so and forced to remain in Ukraine.
The key principle of self-determinism out the window, and democracy when it suits you. Nice.
Tommy_Carcetti
(43,182 posts)And I'm doubtful it's a majority.
But this has nothing to do with Eastern Ukrainian self-determinism.
If you know anything at all about Russian history, the desire to expand, conquer and dominate is ever present. That's what you are seeing today. There's no flower talk about democracy and self-determination here.
LittleBlue
(10,362 posts)how do you "know" anything? Let's just agree that neither of us know a percentage.
You would rather deny them the right to determine their own future than give them a choice. What a joke.
Tommy_Carcetti
(43,182 posts)Because you claim you're talking about what Eastern Ukrainians want, but really what you are talking about is to the benefit of Russia.
And in no way, shape, or form should any government be forced to kowtow to a tiny band of well-armed militants demanding to tear apart a country.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)but if this is a referendum like the one in Crimea, I believe it is going to be tainted before it is voted on. Men at voting booths and no option to stay in the Ukraine are not a valid vote. That is what happened in Crimea.I have no idea what Crimea really wants. Between that election and a significant minority boycotting the vote...
Go ahead, call this propaganda.
LittleBlue
(10,362 posts)to determine their own future? Or should they not be allowed?
Because it seems awfully hypocritical to support a coup in Kiev and yet deny a referendum in Donetsk.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)they had a referendum in Chekoslosvakia. It required a supermajority to accept the separation of the two countries. It was supervised by the UN, they had a new voting roll done under the UN. They had options such as separate (which won over 60% of the vote iirc), options to stay as one nation, and a Federal Republic
There were zero troops in the streets.
All were encouraged to vote.
And the UN promised protections for minorities. I am willing to bet, given the conditions on the grounds that we know that this vote will not succeed under what qualifies as a fair election.
Oh and that election was, since it involved Chekoslovakia, all the country, not just the Check republic, or the Slovak nation. That is the Internationally recognized standard that needs to be met here. And that is NOT what if favored by Moscow, which has made a few statements that if you know the history of the area, are pretty much a declaration of war under present conditions. The reason the Ukrainian military has been very restrained is becuase they can do math. In a direct face off, they won't last more than a few hours. Now they could go guerrilla... and they could give the Russian Army a headache or two, but I do not think any wants to do that... at least not yet.
Tommy_Carcetti
(43,182 posts)Thanks for the historical example.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)same conditions met, and to whit a civil war. but I figured a European example was a better one in this case.
FarCenter
(19,429 posts)Hutzpa
(11,461 posts)and have been working all their angles preparing for times like this, while the United States has been focused if not all or most of
it's resources on needless war with Iraq and to some extent Afghanistan, the Russians have been secretly building their
arsenal while playing the docile card. We got played yet again with the help of unscrupulous individuals who are focused
on self aggrandizement.
Tommy_Carcetti
(43,182 posts)Ukraine has been an independent nation for 22 years now. It's had five different leaders, all corrupt to varying extents, but none of them could remotely be considered a Tito-esqe strongman capable of uniting a balkanized nation of various peoples that would otherwise not co-exist with one another.
Ukraine was Ukraine, with there being a fair share of tensions between the eastern and western portions of the country but nothing that came remotely to the point of splitting the country.
Then, after Yanukoych fled the country, we had an interim government come in to govern in the run-up to the May elections. You had Russia screaming that the interim government was "illegitimate" and you had more than a few useful idiots willing to eat that propaganda up, willingly or not. As a result, Ukraine was arguably in its most vulnerable state that it had ever been in since becoming independent.
And you better believe the Russians knew this.
And you better believe that the fact that calls for Russian annexation of Crimea never happened until this point was a direct result of the Russians knowing this.
And you better believe that these militants that have suddenly popped up in government buildings in Eastern Ukraine flying the Russian flag and calling for Russian annexation was the direct result of the Russians knowing this.
And that quote that Vladimir Putin gave years ago about the breakup of the USSR being the greatest tragedy in Russian history because of all the Russians he claimed were "lost" to other countries....this was prime time for Vlad to act on that sentiment.
Fact of the matter though is that the ethnic Russians are a minority, even in Eastern Ukraine. There was never a huge populist movement in Eastern Ukraine demanding that portion of the country be ceded to Russia. Now, I do know that many Eastern Ukrainians would like to see more regional authority be given to it. However, the interim government has actually expressed an interest in speaking with Eastern Ukrainian regions about this possibility, and it's something that could probably be worked out as the nation moves on in its turbulent history.
So civil war, with Eastern Ukrainians demanding independence from the rest of Ukraine, probably isn't the most likely of scenarios.
On the other hand, the clear and present danger to Ukraine is a military entanglement with Russia. This could come in one of two ways. It could result in a direct military confrontation with Russia where Russia moves in to "protect" ethnic Russians from unspecified threats. Or, as we are seeing know, it could merely be a proxy war, with these militants acting on behalf of Russia with Russian support but not with official Russian involvement.
That's the real danger to Ukraine right now. Not civil war.