so, yes, kick and rec this post! (Unlike the results from the Move-on poll that, while also recently released and posted on DU, was actually taken last fall.)

...but I must say, this is nice to see here, for what, to be honest, seems like a change--someone who is supportive of Dem victories and enthused about the possibility of them!

We do need to GOTV, but we've got the issues on our side...otherwise the GOP wouldn't do dumbshit like try to close the bathrooms at polls on election day, or make it illegal to raise the minimum wage so politicians can't run on that issue.

I am HEARTENED and thank you for that!

We can have it if we focus. GOTV!

I want to totally blind side them with the historic blowout they never saw coming.

GOTV!

to overcome gerrymandering. (IIRC).

and made some pickups in the House, but a big pickup would be very rare in the second midterm of a presidency - Bush lost the House in 2006.

If Democrats can hold their ground this year, I think they'd be poised to win big in 2016.

Keep in mind that those idiots believed the last election was going to be between Hillary and Giuliani.

They're the ones right now claiming Neil Bush is a top contender.

But then, they start the day with a cup of Joe and Drudge.

It'll be "hands off my Obamacare!"

when it becomes more popular. It will suddenly be The Affordable Care Act, or even RomneyCare.

I say we take Queen Lizzie up on her kind offer.

Overall I'd prefer though we get out the vote for Democrats.

It's nice, but I'd still say it's basically the same as when there was all the handwringing about his forecasts they'd take the Senate - it's still too far out to have meaningful polls.

Pryor (D) vs Cotton (R) (senate).

Cotton has been in the lead and Pryor just recently passed him.

If the democrats are smart they'll keep reminding the public who shut the government down.

think that you would be more progressive if you rely on cells than land lines for main phone coverage. I think it will surprise everyone because the GOP hasn't fixed their problems with so many groups and everyone knows that only masochists vote for them.

It is April. Very good sign. We have a good chance. But it will take a whole lot of work.

the bag". EVERY vote is needed. I think Democrats also need a lot of fed-up Republicans to vote Democratic; and no one should be fooled by right-wingers who are running as Democrats.

puts in the most effort will win.

remember the virginia race ended up much closer than the polls because the fundies got out their vote. the black vote saved it for dems since that was the only group which voted in numbers close to presidential election numbers.

VOTE!!! Don't sit on your ass in November. If you do, you'll allow the REAL asses to win.

Gotta GOTV. Make folks mad and turn out big - notably in those swing districts!

The country already voted overwhelmingly for Democrats in the House. Something like 2 million more votes for Dems. The problem lies in the gerrymandered districts, which allowed the Republicans to still end up with more seats.

We lost the House with the OLD Districts, that we had won in 2006 and 2008. The gerrymandered Districts kicked in in 2012.

We will not retake the House by outpolling Republicans by under 2 million votes as we did in 2012. A margin of 7.5 million in our favor this year might well be enough.

BUT WE NEED A NATIONAL NARRATIVE FROM THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY!

Just run republican speeches and racist, anti-human being statements 24/7.
I mean, how difficult than that be?

Then tell the TRUTH about what 'socialist' things do- like ROADS, ATC, FIRE DEPARTMENTS !

They need to stop talking like politicians living in a black plastic-covered fishbowl, and start talking like living, breathing humans..

everything you mention will be included.

I still think Democrats will do at best to hold onto their current numbers and perhaps gain 2-3 seats. The problem is the polls don't reflect gerrymandering.

Let's say you take 100 voters and you poll them and 48 say they would vote Democratic, 42 Republican and 10 other.

Those 100 voters are spread out over 3 districts.

District 1 has 27 Democrats, 29 Republicans and 4 others who split their vote 50-50. Republicans take this district on a count of 31 for R and 29 for D

District 2 has 11 Republicans, 10 Democrats and 3 others who vote 2 R and 1 D. Republicans take the district on a count of 13 for R and 11 for D

District 3 has 2 Republicans, 11 Democrats and 3 others who vote 2 D and 1 R. Democrats take the district on a count of 14 D to 3 R.

Unfortunately that is how the districts have been drawn by Republican controlled states in the past 15 years. That makes aggregate polling very misleading. I would prefer to see polling that was more specific to districts.

That said almost nothing would make me smile more than seeing Boehner have to hand the gavel back to Pelosi and see little 4 eyes (Cantor), Buff-boy Ryan, Issa, Goehmert, Bachmann and the entire ilk slink away in disgrace on a Democratic resurgence.

ACA sucks you say?

So who is gonna tell your neighbor with cancer you want to re-institute preexisting condition exclusions?

Yeah, tell him to vote for your teaparty candidate who wants to take away your healthcare, good luck, sucker.

immigrants, blacks and young people. There can't be that many old, gray white men and women. It befuddles the mind!

But dont underestimate the number of people who hate Obama based on color who are not your typical teaparty, sure we know 99% of the teaparty are rabid racists, it is why their group exists, but lots of relatively mainstream folks who are not liberals and not cons but are suspicious of that Black man in the White House...

worries me

we know teh rethugs will get their supporters out to the polls. we know they will do everything to prevent dems from voting
so we need to get as many to the polls as we can.
we cant let them steal the election.

I am old. I remember vividly the hatred of JFK. I remember the chasm caused by the Viet Nam war. I remember the assassinations of Bobby and Martin like it was yesterday. I remember the 68 Chicago convention. I remember the Women's Movement and the ERA. I remember. But does anyone else? I have never seen the country this polarized. We had Cronkite to hold us together. There is no one who can speak to both sides and calm the country down.

Thanks to the internet, the whackos can find each other. They can re-enforce the insanity. Before the internet, a crazy loon would have to search long and hard to find anyone to validate them. now it's just a click away. And the social norms held most in check. Today there is nothing - not society or local government to stop these asshats from acting out. And it appears that our federal government is too timid to take them on, lest there be a bloodbath. And with all the weapons in the hands of these militia's it would escalate to a civil war in a flash.

I for one am scared shitless. It's like every apocalyptic movie Hollywood has ever churned out. Throw in some climate change for good measure, water scarcity, some virus and we're all but at each other's throats.

I don't see how this will end well. It seems to me that unless the federal government steps up to the plate and backs the big money, the militias, the racists, the gun nuts, and every hater back into the holes they came out of, we're headed for the end of the Grand Experiment.

We must get out the vote. It must be an overwhelming landslide mandate that has never been seen before to give Congress and the Federal Government the courage to tackle these people, and restore a sense of control. They have to know we are forcing them to re-establish the law and order of the country.

probably do better than we had expected.

no matter what it is get in the way of their hatred of liberals.

There has to be plenty of footage of that typical Republican empty charade. Anything less by replacing it with ads full of cymbal swooshes, typical political shtick and kissing babies will not get the job done.

Break their mother f***** backs.

The left can take heart from this poll. It's past time for a good poll relating to November. That said, never take any election for granted. Never despair and give up, but never coast.

And that's what I have to say 'bout that.

GOTV!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

How do you explain the poor performance of actual Democratic Candidates in the polls? I have a few examples if you don't mind.

Let's take Montana. Max Baucus is retiring from the Senate. Max is a Democrat. So we know Democrats can win elections in Montana. Yet, in this particular open seat election, the Republican candidate Steve Daines is so far ahead that it's not even a race at this point. Gerrymandering isn't an issue since it's a statewide election.

South Dakota, where the last poll has it going to Mike Rounds by twenty points. By the way Tim Johnson, a Democrat, won the Senate seat there in 2008.

Well, I could go on and on about the Senate Races. Perhaps we should focus on the House Races. No, perhaps not after looking at the continued occupation of the Rethugs in the House.

Governorship. That's it. We can really clean up in the Governor's Mansions right? Never mind about Governors.

So if Democrats are so popular, why are we losing most of the races? I only ask because right now, it looks like the Rethugs are going to take control of the Senate, and I need to know who to blame.

and maybe try to find reasons or guess at what everyone is doing wrong. But I zoned in on this because it was posted recently... Hopefully the situation is not as dire as your think. I think the approval of Obamacare, as noted above, is going to be a huge vote getter, IF we can impress on people how important it will be to vote.



http://www.politicususa.com/2014/04/10/opposition-medicaid-expansion-killing-republican-governors-2014-election-hopes.html

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10024802869


Opposition to Medicaid Expansion Killing Republican Governors’ 2014 Election Hopes
By: Keith Brekhus
Thursday, April, 10th, 2014, 8:44 am


Forget the media narratives that say Democrats could lose because of their support for Obamacare. While that convenient narrative is easy for beltway reporters to regurgitate, it is not supported by polling evidence. Polling data suggests that contrary to the dominant narrative, health care is a winning issue for Democrats not Republicans. This has become especially apparent in the many contests or the state house across the country.

Recent polling done by Public Policy Polling (PPP) shows that five incumbent Republican Governors who oppose Medicaid expansion are in danger o losing their bids or re-election. Not surprisingly, Maine Republican Paul LePage and Pennsylvania Republican Tom Corbett trail in their bids for re-election as their right-wing policies are far out of line with their blue-leaning electorates. However, even in Georgia and Kansas, Republican incumbents are losing to Democratic challengers. Even in these deep red states, a solid majority of voters want their Governors to expand Medicaid.

No Governor has made opposition to Medicaid expansion more a cornerstone of his campaign than Rick Scott in Florida. Yet, by a 58-33 margin, Florida voters want their Governor to accept the federal funding for Medicaid expansion. More than four in ten Florida voters say Rick Scott’s dogmatic opposition to Medicaid expansion makes them less likely to vote or him. In a head to head match-up with Democrat Charlie Crist, Rick Scott is losing 49-42 percent. GOP opposition to Medicaid expansion will prove to be Rick Scott’s undoing.

The pattern is repeated in state after state. Maine’s Paul LePage, another fierce opponent of Medicaid expansion, trails Democrat Michael Michaud 44-37. If not for left-leaning Independent Elliot Cutler polling at 14 percent, LePage would be losing by double digits. As bad as Rick Scott and Paul LePage are doing, they at least are not as hopelessly doomed as Pennsylvania’s Tom Corbett. The Republican Keystone state Governor is poised to be crushed in a blowout of epic proportions this November. He currently trails a hypothetical Democratic opponent by a punishing 56-34 margin.

Two additional Governors who oppose Medicaid expansion are losing much closer races. However, given that they are in Kansas and Georgia, this should serve as little consolation to the GOP. In Georgia, Jason Carter (D) holds a narrow 43-42 edge over Governor Nathan Deal (R). In Kansas, a state which Barack Obama lost by 22 points to Mitt Romney in 2012, Democratic candidate Paul Davis is leading Sam Brownback 45-41.

Republican Governors and their surrogates will continue to argue that Democrats are losing the debate on health care, but they do so at their own peril. Republican Governors who rejected the federal Medicaid expansion face being rejected by voters in November. From Tallahassee to Topeka, the GOP’s policies blocking health care access to low-income residents is set to backfire at the polls. For constituents in need of affordable medical care, November 2014 cannot come soon enough.

12-15 pts. ...

Otherwise, good news, but not much.

Make this a reality!

this means about as much as the Democrats getting a million and a half more votes than the Republicans in the 2012 Congressional elections. Democracy is dead.

your negativism without any solutions.

then other districts would have become more competitive.

A long shot but even in the "gerrymandering" districts the constituents who have recently acquired Obamacare (probably under another name). . . Medicaid don't want it repealed. I believe a majority of Americans want equal pay and cost of living. Majority want their civil rights not fucked with, i.e. "leave my body alone" and as a women "I can make my own decisions". Fair Voting is a testimony to democracy. Take all that money honey away that the 1-2%ers are spending and make it more equal especially with the middle class.

Dems need to bring this front and center!

defeat from the jaws of victory, and their notorious lack of enthusiasm for mid-terms, this is extremely premature, but I don't care...

HAPPY DANCE HERE!

It seems to me that if the districts are drawn to favor one party over another, then whether that party is Democrat or Republican , it is just wrong. In Ohio we are working to end this Gerrymandering.
I have asked myself over and over what is the goal of Gerrymandering. The answer always comes back freedom to be corrupt without election penalty. We say we are for democracy here and I really believe the vast majority are , but are we willing to fight Gerrymandering everywhere even if it favors democrats. I am and I believe any real democrat is too. We must have competition between ideas if we are to be a government for the people and by the people. So if you are willing to help end Gerrymandering, you can start with Ohio where 106 of 109 legislative races were decided by how the districts were drawn. Please go on MoveOn and pledge to help us fight Gerrymandering and return some semblance of democracy to Ohio. The link is http://petitions.moveon.org/sign/gerrymandering-in-ohio/

I don't know how realistic it is, but I'd sure as shit love to see it.

The Gerrymandering of the districts allow the (R)s to have fewer people vote for them and still win more seats.

Not that this poll is a bad thing, but it is so general as to be without meaning. The very fact that it is registered voters and not likely voters in a mid term is very telling.


I just hope we pick up a few seats and hold the Senate. If it looks like a status quo election then we are in good shape for 2016.

Historically in midterm elections, how do register voter polls compare to polls targeting people more likely to show up and vote? (Likely Voters).

People don't vote for an unnamed Demjocrat. If there's head to head polling that shows we're doing well, I'll consider it. right now, my analysis says we don't take the House back in 2014. That's not defeatism, it's hard reality informing where I put my money, which right now is targeted at holding the Senate.

The world does not need the GOP in control of the House or Senate

And correct me if I'm wrong... a general poll doesn't mean much because since I assume this is nationwide. Even a statewide poll won't mean much when it comes to races for the House because while a state might be polled trending for democrats, that only matters for Senate races which the whole state votes on. House races are up to individualized, heavily gerrymandered in favor of republican districts. This is the same reason why so many states might have gone for Obama while electing a bunch of repub representatives.

TlalocW

We have more time to get out our message, which should improve the poll numbers even more right before the 2012 election. And we will have ObamaCare firmly in place and benefiting a large swath of the public by then. GOTV everyone!

That's a big difference; a lot can happen in 6 months.

Look, I'm a sucker for good news as much as the next guy. But the fact is that the polling on individual races shows Democrats losing.

We'll start with the House shall we? Right now, the polling shows the Rethugs holding the House. So while we are popular as a party, apparently our candidates are not popular.

Let's look at the Senate. Many here underestimate how dangerous this election is for us. They're already talking about who to choose for 2016. Right now, the polling has it at 46 seats for the Dems, 47 for the Rethugs with 7 toss ups. That means whoever wins 4 of the tossups, wins the Senate. If you give the tossup to the current polling leader, the Rethugs win 51 to 49.

Now, we can't blame gerrymandering for that, because those are statewide races. Races in which Democrats held the seat are already so far gone as to be next to hopeless. We're down to hoping for a Hail Mary type of event to rescue the South Dakota and Montana Senate Seats.

Perhaps our party popularity will help us in the Governs races. Perhaps we're going to get big gains there? Not according to the polling we're not.

So the best that can be said is that people appear to prefer the Democratic Party, but don't like actual Democrat Politicians.

We read and comment on many posts on this board about Wendy Davis. There have been complaints that Abbot isn't even trying to go out and woo the public. The reason is he's in the lead. All he can do by going out is screw it up. By keeping the appearances to carefully scripted and controlled events he will win the Governor's Mansion in Texas.

Many times in the past I pointed out our strategy was ill conceived as a political party for the elections. Our success depended entirely upon the Rethugs screwing up. While that has happened in the past, it rarely happens often enough for it to be your big hope. This is the result. This is the result of your entire plan being based upon the opponent self destructing.

So lead the bleachers in rousing cheers about how we're going to win the big homecoming game. In the mean time, the other side is determined and working at winning the actual game, and their plans appear to be working better than our plans. Unless your idea of victory is this one poll, in which case yes, we won. Now, what kind of legislation do you think is going to come out of the Rethug Senate? I personally shudder to think what the Ryan budget will look like after being passed by such a body.

But we're popular, as a group. But when it comes to actually liking us enough to vote for us, not so much.

Is this true? Well, no matter, we should weight all polls. Thank you for sharing positive poll results.

In the end, the race to the finish line will be determined by the voters. Even those gerrymandered districts are inhabited by those who will support an honest politician. If one is to be found.

the upper hand in the coming elections as long as they don't allow victory to be snatched by the lying republicans from their grasp.

It was only a matter of time before people start to come to their senses, sometimes you have to allow the republican propaganda
machine time to chug to a halt before responding.

I think we should wait for more than one poll before concluding that people came to their senses. Not long ago Quinnipiac had a poll with D+2.

but I can't say that I'll be too depressed when Alaska representative for life, Don Young, leaves this mortal coil. He's been in office since Nick Begich's plane crashed in 1972. That's quite long enough for anyone. He'll be 81 in June. He needs to retire.

Everyone here makes fun of him, and yet he gets elected year after year after year after year.....