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xchrom

(108,903 posts)
Fri Jun 6, 2014, 06:27 AM Jun 2014

The Remarkable Turnaround In Australia After Its Massive Gun Buyback

http://www.businessinsider.com/australias-massive-gun-buyback-2014-6



***SNIP

The effect of the buyback was to reduce Australia’s firearms stock by around one-fifth, equivalent to the U.S. reducing its national stock by 40 million guns. And while some weapons came from households with multiple firearms, survey evidence suggests that the buyback nearly halved the share of Australian households with one or more firearms.

From 2008 to 2010, while working as an economics professor at the Australian National University, I teamed up with Wilfrid Laurier University’s Christine Neill to study how the Australian gun buyback affected the firearms homicide and suicide rates. We published two peer-reviewed journal articles on the buyback, one looking at the trends over time and another studying variation across states and territories.

Whichever way you cut the data, it seemed clear that the national gun buyback reduced gun deaths. In the decade prior to the buyback, there was an average of one mass shooting (five or more victims) every year. In the decade after the buyback, there were no mass shootings. Overall, the firearms homicide and firearms suicide rates had been trending steadily downwards through the 1980s and early 1990s, but the fall accelerated after the buyback.

The strongest evidence in favor of the Australian gun buyback came when Neill and I compared statistics across the eight Australian states and territories. In some jurisdictions, the buyback had only a small impact on the firearms ownership rate, while in other places, it had a huge effect.



Read more: http://www.zocalopublicsquare.org/2014/06/05/the-great-australian-gun-buyback/ideas/nexus/#ixzz33qz7EKUJ
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The Remarkable Turnaround In Australia After Its Massive Gun Buyback (Original Post) xchrom Jun 2014 OP
Here we go... Kingofalldems Jun 2014 #1
Waiting..... beemer27 Jun 2014 #2
"Our published papers concluded that the Australian gun buyback saves around 200 lives per year." klook Jun 2014 #3
You would have to get all 50 states to first ban certain types of guns hack89 Jun 2014 #6
real easy mikeysnot Jun 2014 #14
You have to get 50 states to ban them first hack89 Jun 2014 #15
just making you squirm... mikeysnot Jun 2014 #32
Why squirm? hack89 Jun 2014 #34
Cue the Ammosexuals.... Katashi_itto Jun 2014 #4
Cue peculiar prohibitionist sexual bents? In Guns Discussion? Eleanors38 Jun 2014 #29
Meet The Dangerous Open Carry Ammosexuals And Gun-Fetishists That Invaded Chipotle Katashi_itto Jun 2014 #31
I have some ammo you can try out. But it's spent. Eleanors38 Jun 2014 #33
You seem to be the expert on that... Katashi_itto Jun 2014 #42
Just guessing. An empty 3.5" .12 ga would allow you some wiggle room! Eleanors38 Jun 2014 #55
At least the term Katashi_itto Jun 2014 #65
Were they practicing combat like the people in your sig line? friendly_iconoclast Jun 2014 #35
When we have to stretch that far to make a peevish point LanternWaste Jun 2014 #38
+1000 Katashi_itto Jun 2014 #41
I always get a laugh blueridge3210 Jun 2014 #58
The genitalia jokes will stay, as very few gun control advocates actually do anything friendly_iconoclast Jun 2014 #64
Yes, as accurate as your trying to make a connection between Katashi_itto Jun 2014 #66
Not even close. (nt) blueridge3210 Jun 2014 #68
What have *you* done for gun control besides typing about it? friendly_iconoclast Jun 2014 #69
So far, no answer- which is sort of what I expected... friendly_iconoclast Jun 2014 #70
unlike US schemes to offer $ for guns, the Australian version was compulsory aikoaiko Jun 2014 #5
Here we are, right on time Katashi_itto Jun 2014 #7
Yes, you might have noticed this is a discussion board where discussion happens aikoaiko Jun 2014 #8
I have no problem. Nice to see NRA types busy at their daily rounds. Very predictable. Katashi_itto Jun 2014 #10
Actually its a privilege because its a private board. aikoaiko Jun 2014 #11
Babble much? Katashi_itto Jun 2014 #12
You can't stop taking the bait, can you? aikoaiko Jun 2014 #13
Obviously you can't :) Katashi_itto Jun 2014 #30
Should the Democratic party announce support for national gun bans before or after 2016? hack89 Jun 2014 #9
Yes, it may lead to a few political suicides... Violet_Crumble Jun 2014 #19
Interesting replies from the pro-gun side thucythucy Jun 2014 #16
"we found that its effect was mostly to reduce the gun suicide rate .." hack89 Jun 2014 #17
Why not do both? thucythucy Jun 2014 #20
Sucide is a personal choice hack89 Jun 2014 #23
Again, why not do both? thucythucy Jun 2014 #51
As long as tighten =/= ban. nt hack89 Jun 2014 #57
Here's one observation that, as far as I'm aware, remains undisputed... derby378 Jun 2014 #40
Not suffering here, mate Fairgo Jun 2014 #45
Yeah, no suffering here either... Violet_Crumble Jun 2014 #48
It is amazing! Fairgo Jun 2014 #61
Understood, but that doesn't answer the question derby378 Jun 2014 #62
I don't really understand the question... Violet_Crumble Jun 2014 #63
pump actions are legal and almost as fast. Duckhunter935 Jun 2014 #67
That is one way to reduce sucide rates - single payer health care is another. nt hack89 Jun 2014 #18
Why not do both? thucythucy Jun 2014 #21
Because Americans will not support gun bans to reduce sucides hack89 Jun 2014 #25
The gun control laws weren't introduced here to reduce suicide rates... Violet_Crumble Jun 2014 #26
Yet the OP says the main result of the gun buy back was to reduce deaths due to sucides hack89 Jun 2014 #27
The main result was there were no more mass slaughters... Violet_Crumble Jun 2014 #28
There *were* more- but not with guns. Arsonists stepped up to the plate: friendly_iconoclast Jun 2014 #36
I'm not seeing what the connection is between gun control laws and arson... Violet_Crumble Jun 2014 #46
How wonderful it must be to live in a society with some semblance of sanity thucythucy Jun 2014 #50
I wish the US was that sort of society as well... Violet_Crumble Jun 2014 #52
Visiting Australia is high on my list thucythucy Jun 2014 #54
I hope you do get over for a visit... Violet_Crumble Jun 2014 #59
You think they will support single payer? thucythucy Jun 2014 #53
australia had single payer before and after the gun buy back dsc Jun 2014 #22
So lets do single payer first hack89 Jun 2014 #24
there are many reasons to install a single payer system dsc Jun 2014 #43
So suicides are grounds for gun bans hack89 Jun 2014 #44
yes because it is highly doubtful that single payer would significantly reduce suicides dsc Jun 2014 #49
Except you can't ban handguns hack89 Jun 2014 #56
Will never work in the US LittleBlue Jun 2014 #37
... xchrom Jun 2014 #39
Crazy Unce Sam Fairgo Jun 2014 #47
Probably more a violation of the 5th Amendment blueridge3210 Jun 2014 #60

klook

(12,154 posts)
3. "Our published papers concluded that the Australian gun buyback saves around 200 lives per year."
Fri Jun 6, 2014, 08:59 AM
Jun 2014

Works for me. What are we waiting for?

From 2008 to 2010, while working as an economics professor at the Australian National University, I teamed up with Wilfrid Laurier University’s Christine Neill to study how the Australian gun buyback affected the firearms homicide and suicide rates. We published two peer-reviewed journal articles on the buyback, one looking at the trends over time and another studying variation across states and territories.

hack89

(39,171 posts)
6. You would have to get all 50 states to first ban certain types of guns
Fri Jun 6, 2014, 09:04 AM
Jun 2014

and then you would have to get all 50 states to fork up a shit ton of money to buy the guns.

That is what we are waiting for.

hack89

(39,171 posts)
34. Why squirm?
Fri Jun 6, 2014, 01:27 PM
Jun 2014

I am supposed to get upset about fantasy "solutions" completely divorced from American political and legal reality?

 

Eleanors38

(18,318 posts)
29. Cue peculiar prohibitionist sexual bents? In Guns Discussion?
Fri Jun 6, 2014, 10:21 AM
Jun 2014

Read the TOS: GD is the Guns Discussion forum, and not the place for prohibitionists to discuss off-beat and peculiar sexual theories and drives. You can post only ANTI-gun stuff, but there are other groups where you can attack other DUers who don't agree with your strange take on sexuality and ordnance.

We're here. You fear. And we'd like to say hello!

 

friendly_iconoclast

(15,333 posts)
35. Were they practicing combat like the people in your sig line?
Fri Jun 6, 2014, 03:30 PM
Jun 2014

If not, how do you know they were dangerous?

Hypocrisy, you has it...

 

LanternWaste

(37,748 posts)
38. When we have to stretch that far to make a peevish point
Fri Jun 6, 2014, 04:04 PM
Jun 2014

When we have to stretch that far to make a peevish point and pretend to be clever, it's far better we remain quiet than to loudly advertise how absurd our biases often illustrate us...

 

blueridge3210

(1,401 posts)
58. I always get a laugh
Fri Jun 6, 2014, 08:38 PM
Jun 2014

out of the same tired attempts to equate firearm ownership with some form of sexual perversion. Given the lack of success to date, some may prefer to try some new material.

 

friendly_iconoclast

(15,333 posts)
64. The genitalia jokes will stay, as very few gun control advocates actually do anything
Sat Jun 7, 2014, 05:07 AM
Jun 2014

Sharing lulz with those who already agree with you is much easier
than trying to sustain a political movement, hence the proliferation of
warmed-over Freudian imagery.

 

friendly_iconoclast

(15,333 posts)
69. What have *you* done for gun control besides typing about it?
Sat Jun 7, 2014, 05:33 PM
Jun 2014

If you've not done anything in real life, then my remark stands...

aikoaiko

(34,169 posts)
5. unlike US schemes to offer $ for guns, the Australian version was compulsory
Fri Jun 6, 2014, 09:04 AM
Jun 2014


Anti-gun politicians and supportrs will have to finally own their gun grabber nickname.

aikoaiko

(34,169 posts)
8. Yes, you might have noticed this is a discussion board where discussion happens
Fri Jun 6, 2014, 09:08 AM
Jun 2014

You may not like it but there it is.
 

Katashi_itto

(10,175 posts)
10. I have no problem. Nice to see NRA types busy at their daily rounds. Very predictable.
Fri Jun 6, 2014, 09:10 AM
Jun 2014

And as a discussion board I have the right to make observations.

aikoaiko

(34,169 posts)
11. Actually its a privilege because its a private board.
Fri Jun 6, 2014, 09:16 AM
Jun 2014

Do you think you have a "right" to comment here? No wonder anti-gunners are losing in court more than winning. You don't understand the 1st Amendment either.

hack89

(39,171 posts)
9. Should the Democratic party announce support for national gun bans before or after 2016?
Fri Jun 6, 2014, 09:08 AM
Jun 2014

there are some political considerations if we want to go down this path.

Violet_Crumble

(35,961 posts)
19. Yes, it may lead to a few political suicides...
Fri Jun 6, 2014, 09:40 AM
Jun 2014

The answers to the question 'What makes a politician successful?' were really telling...

thucythucy

(8,048 posts)
16. Interesting replies from the pro-gun side
Fri Jun 6, 2014, 09:25 AM
Jun 2014

in response to this study.

Nothing arguing that the study is flawed in any way (which is what you usually get in instances like this).

Instead, it's that politically this would be unpopular and thus impossible.

Which may well be true. But it's an interesting admission. Essentially, "Yeah, all these guns sloshing through our society definitely leads to more people dying, but it's unpopular to say so, so let it go."

I guess the steady drum beat of mass shootings, homicides and suicides is the price we all have to pay for their "freedom."

hack89

(39,171 posts)
17. "we found that its effect was mostly to reduce the gun suicide rate .."
Fri Jun 6, 2014, 09:37 AM
Jun 2014
We found that its effect was mostly to reduce the gun suicide rate with most of the 200 lives saved being averted suicides


Why not solve the suicide problem through healthcare reform?

thucythucy

(8,048 posts)
20. Why not do both?
Fri Jun 6, 2014, 09:48 AM
Jun 2014

I find it interesting that the issue of suicide is an almost an immediate fall-back argument for pro-gunners. Are you implying that the deaths of people who commit suicide are somehow less tragic than others? That their families--the wives and husbands, children and parents--don't suffer as much after a suicide as they might in another type of gun death?

By all means, let's increase our efforts in the mental health field. But, as this study would seem to indicate, reducing the sheer number of guns out there would also help, and, it would seem, help fairly quickly. We can, after all, walk and chew gum at the same time.

Except, of course, we can't. "Freedom," the 2nd amendment, the arms dealer lobby, and folks who just love their hobby so much that nothing else matters, won't permit it.

Which, as I read it, means more people will have to die, needlessly.

Congratulations, NRA, arms dealers, narcissists and enablers! Mission Accomplished.

hack89

(39,171 posts)
23. Sucide is a personal choice
Fri Jun 6, 2014, 09:52 AM
Jun 2014

yes, the deaths are tragic but they are not the same as someone being murdered.

Why not focus on the demographic that are killing themselves and find ways to identify them and disarm them until they are no longer a threat to themselves?

thucythucy

(8,048 posts)
51. Again, why not do both?
Fri Jun 6, 2014, 08:17 PM
Jun 2014

Focus on ways to disarm people who are an obvious threat to themselves and others, and tighten gun ownership all around.

derby378

(30,252 posts)
40. Here's one observation that, as far as I'm aware, remains undisputed...
Fri Jun 6, 2014, 04:33 PM
Jun 2014

The Australian gun ban was in response to a man who had no license to own a firearm and wound up stealing a firearm from a secure military or LEO depot anyway. So for that, all Australians had to suffer the new law?

Fairgo

(1,571 posts)
45. Not suffering here, mate
Fri Jun 6, 2014, 07:36 PM
Jun 2014

Tonight I will wander around Vivid Sydney among huge crowds,cut across the city to Darling Harbor, and never worry about some idiot with a gun. Oz is big on law that protects my right not to be afraid in my own community. It may feel a little "nanny state" to John and Jane Wayne, but it is just a more clear-eyed way to deal with the hydraulics of crime, power, and want. Trust me, we are not suffering.

Violet_Crumble

(35,961 posts)
48. Yeah, no suffering here either...
Fri Jun 6, 2014, 07:58 PM
Jun 2014

Enjoy Vivid. I'm in Canberra and was thinking about heading to Sydney this weekend to see it, coz it looks spectacular

derby378

(30,252 posts)
62. Understood, but that doesn't answer the question
Fri Jun 6, 2014, 10:26 PM
Jun 2014

My wife visited Sydney and surrounding environs back in 1998. She took lots of pics and brought home some amazing stories. One of these days, maybe I can visit, too.

But the rationale for the gun ban, going to all this trouble because of theft and illegal possession of the murder weapon by some jackass psycho, is what I have issue with. Granted, if I was born Australian, I might feel differently.

Violet_Crumble

(35,961 posts)
63. I don't really understand the question...
Sat Jun 7, 2014, 02:05 AM
Jun 2014

How did we all suffer? I remember at the time every single person I knew supported the introduction of gun control laws. I don't remember all of us suffering, not even the guy I knew who had to do the buy-back thing coz he had a weapon that was now illegal. He moaned a bit and complained he wasn't getting what he thought the market price for it was, but the only people who suffered in that case were folk like me who had to listen to him for a few days till he got over it.

You mentioned Martin Bryant stole the murder weapon from some military facility. I've never heard that before and was wondering where you read that. My recollection is that he bought it from a classifieds ad in the paper or from a gun shop. Add the fact that someone who had no gun license could just get something like that so easily is why the gun control laws happened. So now AR-15s are amongst the guns that are illegal in Australia, and there's background checks and waiting periods and stuff for anyone who does want to buy a gun. It's all common-sense stuff to me.

hack89

(39,171 posts)
25. Because Americans will not support gun bans to reduce sucides
Fri Jun 6, 2014, 09:57 AM
Jun 2014

they view it as a personal choice. On the other hand, I think they will support single payer.

Violet_Crumble

(35,961 posts)
26. The gun control laws weren't introduced here to reduce suicide rates...
Fri Jun 6, 2014, 10:04 AM
Jun 2014

There was strong support for gun control laws because there'd been a series of massacres in the years leading up to the Port Arthur massacre. A reduction in suicide rates was one of the effects of the laws, but it wasn't the driving force behind the support for the laws being introduced so quickly after Port Arthur.

hack89

(39,171 posts)
27. Yet the OP says the main result of the gun buy back was to reduce deaths due to sucides
Fri Jun 6, 2014, 10:13 AM
Jun 2014

so discussing other means to reduce suicides is appropriate.

Violet_Crumble

(35,961 posts)
28. The main result was there were no more mass slaughters...
Fri Jun 6, 2014, 10:16 AM
Jun 2014

And the only reason there was support on both sides of the political fence for the laws was because the Port Arthur massacre was the final straw in years of mass shootings.

 

friendly_iconoclast

(15,333 posts)
36. There *were* more- but not with guns. Arsonists stepped up to the plate:
Fri Jun 6, 2014, 03:41 PM
Jun 2014
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Childers_Palace_Fire

The Childers Palace Backpackers Hostel fire on 23 June 2000 killed 15 backpackers: nine women and six men. The hostel in the town of Childers, Queensland, Australia, is popular amongst backpackers for its fruit picking work.[1][2] Robert Paul Long was arrested for lighting the fire and charged with murder (two counts) and arson (one count). He was later sentenced to life in prison.[3]


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Saturday_bushfires#Central_Gippsland_fires

By 9 February, the Churchill fire complex was still burning out of control, with fronts through the Latrobe Valley and the Strzelecki Ranges.[90] By late that afternoon, the complex had burnt out 32,860 hectares (81,200 acres) and had killed eleven people.[91] Wind changes that evening exacerbated parts of the Churchill complex, causing the CFA to issue further warnings to residents at Won Wron and surrounding areas.[92]

Investigators revealed that they strongly believed arson was the most likely cause of the Churchill fire.[53] A man from Churchill was arrested by police in relation to the Churchill fires at 4:00 pm on 12 February and was questioned at the Morwell police station; the following day he was charged with one count each of arson causing death, intentionally lighting a bushfire, and possession of child pornography.[93] On 16 February, a suppression order was lifted and the accused arsonist was named in the media as Churchill resident Brendan Sokaluk, 39.[94]


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quakers_Hill_Nursing_Home_Fire#Nursing_home_fire

Nursing home fire

On 18 November 2011 an early morning fire at Quakers Hill Nursing Home killed 11 elderly residents, seriously injured others and caused the evacuation of up to 100 people.[5] Three people died in the fire, and a further eight residents of the home died later in hospital from their injuries.[6][7] The fire started in two places and was regarded by police as suspicious.[5]

A nurse working in the home, Roger Kingsley Dean, was later arrested and charged with four counts of murder.[8] He was later charged over more subsequent deaths.[9]

On 2 November 2012 the 36-year-old accused nurse pleaded not guilty to eight counts of recklessly causing grievous bodily harm and eleven counts of murder. He had wished to plead guilty to manslaughter, but that was rejected by the Crown. He did plead guilty to two larceny charges relating to theft of prescription painkillers from the nursing home. He stood trial in the Supreme Court in May 2013.[10] On 27 May 2013, Dean pleaded guilty to eleven counts of murder,[11] and on 1 August 2013 he was sentenced to life imprisonment without possibility of parole.[12]


Are these victims any less dead?

Violet_Crumble

(35,961 posts)
46. I'm not seeing what the connection is between gun control laws and arson...
Fri Jun 6, 2014, 07:54 PM
Jun 2014

Is the argument that the introduction of gun control laws should have led to a decrease in arson? Sorry, I don't see any connection between the two.

Let me be clearer for you. When I said there'd been no more mass slaughters since Port Arthur and the introduction of gun control laws immediately after it, I was talking about mass shootings. In the years leading up to it there'd been lots, the Hoddle Street, Queen Street, and Strathfield Plaza being three of the worst. In the nearly 20 years since then, I can only think of one where someone's walked into a public place like a school or a café etc and shot people randomly. And after that one gun control laws were reviewed again and further restrictions introduced.

thucythucy

(8,048 posts)
50. How wonderful it must be to live in a society with some semblance of sanity
Fri Jun 6, 2014, 08:10 PM
Jun 2014

around gun crime.

As you'll see from some the replies to this OP, here in the good ole USA to right to play bang bang with our toys trumps all.

Violet_Crumble

(35,961 posts)
52. I wish the US was that sort of society as well...
Fri Jun 6, 2014, 08:21 PM
Jun 2014

Hopefully one day it will learn from our reaction to Port Arthur and do something similar. My reaction when reading threads like this to some of the responses generally goes along the line of 'WTF?? You can't be serious??'

thucythucy

(8,048 posts)
54. Visiting Australia is high on my list
Fri Jun 6, 2014, 08:28 PM
Jun 2014

of things I want to do before I begin the great dirt nap.

Sensible gun law only adds to the attraction.

All best wishes to you and yours.

Violet_Crumble

(35,961 posts)
59. I hope you do get over for a visit...
Fri Jun 6, 2014, 08:40 PM
Jun 2014

I was on a north Queensland cruise last year and there were lots of American tourists on the ship, and the ones I talked to loved it.

Best wishes to you too, and enjoy yr weekend. I'm off to do some Saturday morning lazing around in the sun now for a while

thucythucy

(8,048 posts)
53. You think they will support single payer?
Fri Jun 6, 2014, 08:24 PM
Jun 2014

Maybe, maybe not.

On the other hand, less than ten years ago people were arguing that supporting marriage equality was political suicide.

Times change. I'm hoping people will come around on guns, especially as the most rabidly pro-gun folks age out and are replaced by younger people for whom the "right" to hunt and target shoot won't trump the right not to get slaughtered while attending class, going to a movie, hanging out in a mall. Then too, the more rabid gun tactics of recent weeks and months--all the Open Carry Texas nonsense, the "Your dead children don't trump my gun rights" narcissism--will convince more and more people that the status quo is simple insanity.

It's good to have Australia as a model of a "frontier" society that has grown out of gun adolescence.

It will eventually happen here, but I'm afraid only after far more people die by bullet.

dsc

(52,160 posts)
43. there are many reasons to install a single payer system
Fri Jun 6, 2014, 07:07 PM
Jun 2014

preventing suicide is quite frankly not one of them.

dsc

(52,160 posts)
49. yes because it is highly doubtful that single payer would significantly reduce suicides
Fri Jun 6, 2014, 08:05 PM
Jun 2014

while it is virtually certain controlling guns would.

 

LittleBlue

(10,362 posts)
37. Will never work in the US
Fri Jun 6, 2014, 04:00 PM
Jun 2014

Forcing people to sell their firearms back to the government is a clear violation of the 2A.

Fairgo

(1,571 posts)
47. Crazy Unce Sam
Fri Jun 6, 2014, 07:55 PM
Jun 2014

Aussies hold out much love for the Yank, but lately I field a lot of questions about our sanity. I cannot explain the 2nd amendment to them in a way that reconciles reason with the gibberish they hear on the news. So I guess I understand how people who worship the Lord of the Flies see the rest of the civilized world as bedlam best address by the most primitive human response. Ignorance and violence go hand in hand. Best not to give it a gun...or parade it in public. It's embarrassing.

 

blueridge3210

(1,401 posts)
60. Probably more a violation of the 5th Amendment
Fri Jun 6, 2014, 08:43 PM
Jun 2014

Unless the government was going to pay the going market rate for all firearms, some of which would be priced in the thousands of dollars. Less than market rate could be regarded as an "unlawful taking" and a 5th Amendment violation.

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