Study: Alaska's future looks more rainy, less snowy

Source: Alaska Dispatch

Alaskans of the future might have to stock up on ice cleats and endure disappointing snow seasons. A newly published study calculates the degrees to which precipitation falling from the sky will be rain instead of snow, a transformation expected over the rest of the 21st century as the far north climate warms.

The study, published in the June issue of the journal Hydrological Processes, uses a model based on decades of weather data from around the state. It applies the derived calculations of past temperature and precipitation to a suite of well-respected climate-prediction models used by the Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning at the University of Alaska Fairbanks.

... Under the most extreme warming scenario, February in the southern part of Western Alaska will become a rainy month, not a snowy month. Under that scenario, by the end of the century, rain will be falling in that part of the state on at least three-quarters of the days when precipitation occurs.

In the Arctic, the snow-rain mixture will tilt to varying degrees depending on the climate scenario used, to later autumn snow and more late-spring rain, according to the forecast. That could mean changes for how the tundra there is used by people, animals and even plants. The length of the annual snow-free period is important for permafrost stability, vegetation, wildlife and human use of the land for subsistence food gathering and natural resource development, the study points out.

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