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ProSense

(116,464 posts)
Tue Jun 10, 2014, 08:51 PM Jun 2014

Cantor Campaign: Internal Poll Showed 34-Point Lead Over Tea Partier

Cantor Campaign: Internal Poll Showed 34-Point Lead Over Tea Partier

An internal poll by House Majority Leader Eric Cantor's (R-VA) re-election campaign had him with a 34-point lead over primary opponent economics professor David Brat.

The poll, conducted by John McLaughlin of McLaughlin & Associates between May 27 and May 28 found Cantor with 62 percent to Brat with 28 percent, according to The Washington Post on Friday.

Cantor lost to Brat on Tuesday. With 90 percent of precincts reporting Brat defeated Cantor 55.4 percent to 44.6 percent. It was perhaps the biggest upset of any primary contest in the 2014 election cycle.

Brat ran a tea party challenge against Cantor focused on immigration. But Brat's candidacy didn't get much national attention or attention from the most prominent outside groups that have boosted conservative challenges to incumbent Republican lawmakers.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/eric-cantor-david-brat-challenger-tea-party-internal-poll



58 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Cantor Campaign: Internal Poll Showed 34-Point Lead Over Tea Partier (Original Post) ProSense Jun 2014 OP
Somebody is getting fired. nt onehandle Jun 2014 #1
What did they use? BayouBengal07 Jun 2014 #2
Someone's rocking back in forth in the corner muttering "we have THE math. We have THE math." myrna minx Jun 2014 #27
Something's up--open primary, Dems playing games? TwilightGardener Jun 2014 #3
I suspect analysis of a few key precincts will convince the VA legislature that a closed msanthrope Jun 2014 #7
Kind of like what we did in Missouri with Todd Akin during the primaries? xmas74 Jun 2014 #44
On behalf of all of us: good work. TwilightGardener Jun 2014 #45
Someone at a local meeting told me about it just a few weeks before the election. xmas74 Jun 2014 #57
Encourage Brat to Akinize himself. nt Bernardo de La Paz Jun 2014 #47
That's the way to do it. xmas74 Jun 2014 #58
That's what happens when your guys don't fucking vote. Arkana Jun 2014 #4
Graduate of the Karl Rove School of Political Analysis. nolabear Jun 2014 #5
And the Dean Chambers school of polling.. Feron Jun 2014 #9
Apparently he nailed THE Math 101. Bobbie Jo Jun 2014 #24
Obviously the election was stolen! zappaman Jun 2014 #6
But Al didn't actually lose. AtheistCrusader Jun 2014 #31
How do you know Cantor lost? raincity_calling Jun 2014 #50
Who is 'you guys'? AtheistCrusader Jun 2014 #51
Nonsense gristy Jun 2014 #53
Poor babies were never very good a math. sheshe2 Jun 2014 #8
Houston we have a problem... sheshe2 Jun 2014 #10
We have a few proverbs here malaise Jun 2014 #12
Good riddance. ProSense Jun 2014 #16
Must be the same folks who did the polls for Rmoney malaise Jun 2014 #11
I think where Cantor messed up, was... Hubert Flottz Jun 2014 #37
ROFL - perfect malaise Jun 2014 #39
Nice to see they're doing as well as they did in '12... Wounded Bear Jun 2014 #13
I predict McLaughlin & Associates probably made sufrommich Jun 2014 #14
+1. Someone email them and ask if they need any moving boxes. FSogol Jun 2014 #18
They'll rename uponit7771 Jun 2014 #40
That denial bubble burst must have hurt bad neverforget Jun 2014 #15
I bet they forgot VA has open primaries jeff47 Jun 2014 #17
You would be wrong in that guess. Voter turnout was lowest in Democratic areas of that district FSogol Jun 2014 #20
That, and that he didn't pay enough attentiion to his own district... elzenmahn Jun 2014 #55
Teabaggers are angry, motivated, and they vote.every.time Algernon Moncrieff Jun 2014 #19
So what you're saying is that... Hubert Flottz Jun 2014 #36
Pretty much Algernon Moncrieff Jun 2014 #46
So if Cantor's polling had him winning by 34 points warrior1 Jun 2014 #21
From what I hear, it's a long-shot... elzenmahn Jun 2014 #56
That's a shame. EEO Jun 2014 #22
McLaughlin makes me laugh! Helen Borg Jun 2014 #23
was it the same ones that had Romney winning Pennsylvania ? JI7 Jun 2014 #25
give me money onethatcares Jun 2014 #26
Must have had Rove polling for him. kairos12 Jun 2014 #28
Must have used the Romney 2012 pollsters. yellowcanine Jun 2014 #29
Mc&Mc will never live this down Zambero Jun 2014 #30
Is Karl Rove covered in flop sweat and yelling at the Fox statisticians again? Happyhippychick Jun 2014 #32
Professor Brat's students must've broke into the computer system and switched votes around?? tomm2thumbs Jun 2014 #33
of course I'm joking, it would be the NSA that had the power to do that tomm2thumbs Jun 2014 #34
Sounds like Karl Rove "Had The Numbers" Hubert Flottz Jun 2014 #35
In the end, there's only one poll that counts... JHB Jun 2014 #38
i think i would argue against paying the bill of that particular polling company.... spanone Jun 2014 #41
Must have been some magic in that hat and those stones. Rex Jun 2014 #42
Internal poll does not mean that you poll everyone inside Eric Cantor's house DefenseLawyer Jun 2014 #43
they didn't get those people to the polls. Let's not do the same, k? n/t librechik Jun 2014 #48
Well, I suppose no one will take McLaughlin & Associates seriously ever again Jack Rabbit Jun 2014 #49
Hey Cantor, go check the source code in the voting machines. Watch collegues go nuts! TheNutcracker Jun 2014 #52
By "internal poll," do they mean inside his own campaign? Jamastiene Jun 2014 #54
 

msanthrope

(37,549 posts)
7. I suspect analysis of a few key precincts will convince the VA legislature that a closed
Tue Jun 10, 2014, 08:55 PM
Jun 2014

primary system would have prevented this.

xmas74

(29,674 posts)
44. Kind of like what we did in Missouri with Todd Akin during the primaries?
Thu Jun 12, 2014, 12:52 AM
Jun 2014

That was the first time I've ever voted for a Republican. Akin looked like the weakest to run against McCaskill and there was an actual effort from some groups to vote for the worst. Akin opening his mouth up shortly thereafter was the icing on the cake.

So many here on DU state they'll never vote for a Republican. I'll do again and again and again in cases like our 2012 primary.

xmas74

(29,674 posts)
57. Someone at a local meeting told me about it just a few weeks before the election.
Fri Jun 13, 2014, 09:00 AM
Jun 2014

It was brilliant. If anyone else had one the primary McCaskill would have lost the election. They knew he was the weakest link.

zappaman

(20,606 posts)
6. Obviously the election was stolen!
Tue Jun 10, 2014, 08:53 PM
Jun 2014

I am starting a fund to help Cantor fight this.
Please donate what you can.

www.nowiknowhowalgorefeels.com

raincity_calling

(154 posts)
50. How do you know Cantor lost?
Thu Jun 12, 2014, 10:04 PM
Jun 2014

We have NO idea who won or lost. None! All we have is a computer that spit out numbers
that said Cantor lost, that is it. We have no actual knowledge of whether the numbers presented
are true or not. There has been no verified count of the paper ballots (if in fact
there were paper ballots). You guys still don't get it! Why Cantor "lost" is purely conjecture
until you have an actual public count of the ballots. A computer program can give you any
number you want. One must count the actual ballots by hand to know the true count. We
can't rely on software and databases that can be easily manipulated by insiders.

gristy

(10,667 posts)
53. Nonsense
Thu Jun 12, 2014, 11:46 PM
Jun 2014

raincity_calling has an absolutely valid point. If that poll was a good one, with a decent # of likely voters polled, there really is no good explanation for such a turn-around in such a short time, your snark notwithstanding.

malaise

(269,118 posts)
12. We have a few proverbs here
Tue Jun 10, 2014, 09:08 PM
Jun 2014

Play with puppy - expect to be licked!

Hang out with dawg, 'ketch' fleas !

Hubert Flottz

(37,726 posts)
37. I think where Cantor messed up, was...
Wed Jun 11, 2014, 09:30 PM
Jun 2014

he had the same team of dunces doing the numbers for team Cant'or, that did the numbers for all those worthless budget proposals the republicans had been trying to push, since Bush crashed the economy in 2008. Cantor's voters all went on a hike up the Appalachian trail, is about what I figure caused the fudgy math blunder. Maybe his pollsters just decided to lie to him, like he'd been lying to the American people for 12 years? The folks that blew all that cash on Cantor, didn't get a very good "VALUE" when they funded the "VALUES PARTY's" #2 Man. Whatever it was, I loved it! Almost as good as seeing Rick Santorum and George Allen bite the political dust.

There is a song about Cantor's numbers...

Wounded Bear

(58,682 posts)
13. Nice to see they're doing as well as they did in '12...
Tue Jun 10, 2014, 09:09 PM
Jun 2014

at counting the votes before hand.

If they ever learn how to generate honest poll numbers, Dems might be in trouble.

FSogol

(45,512 posts)
18. +1. Someone email them and ask if they need any moving boxes.
Wed Jun 11, 2014, 10:46 AM
Jun 2014

I saw some by the dumpster behind Staples.

jeff47

(26,549 posts)
17. I bet they forgot VA has open primaries
Wed Jun 11, 2014, 10:44 AM
Jun 2014

and only polled Republicans.

I'm guessing the massive change was due to Democrats voting in the Republican primary.

FSogol

(45,512 posts)
20. You would be wrong in that guess. Voter turnout was lowest in Democratic areas of that district
Wed Jun 11, 2014, 10:49 AM
Jun 2014
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/06/11/did-democratic-votes-doom-eric-cantor/

Cantor lost because he is a crappy politician and even the GOP hates his "no-to-everything" politics.

elzenmahn

(904 posts)
55. That, and that he didn't pay enough attentiion to his own district...
Fri Jun 13, 2014, 01:32 AM
Jun 2014

...because he spent too much time on the national stage, perhaps positioning himself to be the next speaker.

But it's not like he'll be hurting for work or $$ anytime soon. I'm sure that nearly every Repub lobby shop on K-street, not to mention every "think tank", would just luuuuuvv to have him - at whatever price he names.

In any case, good freaking riddance to him.

Algernon Moncrieff

(5,790 posts)
19. Teabaggers are angry, motivated, and they vote.every.time
Wed Jun 11, 2014, 10:46 AM
Jun 2014

I guarantee that most Cantor supporters thought "It's Cantor - he'll be fine without my vote" and skipped the trip to the polls.

Look at the race for NE-2. Lee Terry outspent Dan Frei 20-1, and only won by less than 3000 votes.

Hubert Flottz

(37,726 posts)
36. So what you're saying is that...
Wed Jun 11, 2014, 09:07 PM
Jun 2014

Cantor's voters worked for Cantor, just about like Cantor had worked for the state of Virginia and the American people.(slim and none)

Algernon Moncrieff

(5,790 posts)
46. Pretty much
Thu Jun 12, 2014, 01:19 AM
Jun 2014

Cantor had to have been on board with the Tea Party on 95% of their pet issues; to primary someone over that 5% is pretty disloyal.

warrior1

(12,325 posts)
21. So if Cantor's polling had him winning by 34 points
Wed Jun 11, 2014, 10:57 AM
Jun 2014

and he lost by 10.8, the amount of votes that it took to upset his polling was 7,212 (VA Elections results)

How many democrats voted for Brat?


Is it possible that over 7k democrats would have voted for Brat?

I'm just wondering if it's possible for a democrat to win this seat.

elzenmahn

(904 posts)
56. From what I hear, it's a long-shot...
Fri Jun 13, 2014, 01:35 AM
Jun 2014

...Virginia-7 is supposed to be beet-red.

But then, I will be doing a happy-dance if I'm proven wrong and the Dems win that seat.

onethatcares

(16,178 posts)
26. give me money
Wed Jun 11, 2014, 04:55 PM
Jun 2014

and I'll tell you what you want to hear too.

Just make it small bills, ok?

sheesh, one campaign with a $200K win would be like winning the lottery for me. Then I would sadly apologize and

you would never see me again.

yellowcanine

(35,701 posts)
29. Must have used the Romney 2012 pollsters.
Wed Jun 11, 2014, 05:21 PM
Jun 2014

Or maybe the "Wish in one hand, shit in the other" Polling Firm.

Happyhippychick

(8,379 posts)
32. Is Karl Rove covered in flop sweat and yelling at the Fox statisticians again?
Wed Jun 11, 2014, 06:40 PM
Jun 2014

Ah hh....election night memories.

tomm2thumbs

(13,297 posts)
33. Professor Brat's students must've broke into the computer system and switched votes around??
Wed Jun 11, 2014, 08:26 PM
Jun 2014

Or something like that, eh Cantor?


bwahahahahaha


tomm2thumbs

(13,297 posts)
34. of course I'm joking, it would be the NSA that had the power to do that
Wed Jun 11, 2014, 08:29 PM
Jun 2014

or the Chinese

or the Russians

or my neighbor's 15 yo kid with the glasses

ad infinitum...

JHB

(37,161 posts)
38. In the end, there's only one poll that counts...
Wed Jun 11, 2014, 09:35 PM
Jun 2014

...the one that takes place at the polls, and only counts those who show up. (barring fraud and suppression)

 

DefenseLawyer

(11,101 posts)
43. Internal poll does not mean that you poll everyone inside Eric Cantor's house
Wed Jun 11, 2014, 11:11 PM
Jun 2014

See, there's your mistake right there.

Jack Rabbit

(45,984 posts)
49. Well, I suppose no one will take McLaughlin & Associates seriously ever again
Thu Jun 12, 2014, 01:04 PM
Jun 2014

Perhaps it will go the way of Arthur Anderson.

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