General Discussion

cali

(114,904 posts) Tue Jun 17, 2014, 07:43 AM Jun 2014

Take a look at these maps of Baghdad and surrounding areas. I'm no miitary strategist-

that's for sure- but this looks to me like the Sunni Insurgents are encircling Baghdad. Great article as well:

<snip>

Government sources say Baquba - capital of Diyala province on the northern approaches to Baghdad - saw Sunni rebels take control of several districts on the western outskirts of the city before these were regained by government troops and allied Shia militia.

At least 44 prisoners were killed in an overnight assault by the rebels on a police station in the city, security officials report.

<snip>

The jihadists from ISIS already control several towns in the area and now are targeting Baquba - the provincial capital and the last city or town before Baghdad, which lies just an hour's drive away along a major highway.

The situation along the frontlines north of the capital had been quite static for several days, but the militants and their allies amongst the Sunni community are on the move again.

<snip>

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-27881995

5 replies

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Highlight:

Take a look at these maps of Baghdad and surrounding areas. I'm no miitary strategist- (Original Post) cali Jun 2014 OP

Baghdad is a big city. HooptieWagon Jun 2014 #1

thanks for the info cali Jun 2014 #3

Been following Joshua Landis on the ME for years, Benton D Struckcheon Jun 2014 #2

As is pointed out above, the insurgents are not numerous truebluegreen Jun 2014 #4

The 3000-5000 ISIS as reported is not enough to take and hold the entire country Lurks Often Jun 2014 #5

HooptieWagon

(17,064 posts)

1. Baghdad is a big city.

Reply to cali (Original post)

Tue Jun 17, 2014, 08:12 AM

Jun 2014

It would take a huge army to encircle and beseige it. I not sure of ISIS numbers... several thousand?... but they probably are far short. What ISIS can do is to seize control of power stations, block major highways, and take the airport, which will prevent reinforcements and supplies from reaching the city... in time people will be starved out. To go door to door, and control held neighborhoods in the city, might take over 300,000 soldiers.

cali

(114,904 posts)

3. thanks for the info

Reply to HooptieWagon (Reply #1)

Tue Jun 17, 2014, 08:25 AM

Jun 2014

appreciate it.

Benton D Struckcheon

(2,347 posts)

2. Been following Joshua Landis on the ME for years,

Reply to cali (Original post)

Tue Jun 17, 2014, 08:16 AM

Jun 2014

his opinion is that ISIS can't take Baghdad, not against determined Shia opposition:

http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/future-isis-sectarian-response-isis-picked-fight-win/

His take on the long term future of Iraq is pretty somber. He also advises the US not to attempt to get involved on Maliki's side unless Maliki puts aside his sectarian ways.

truebluegreen

(9,033 posts)

4. As is pointed out above, the insurgents are not numerous

Reply to cali (Original post)

Tue Jun 17, 2014, 08:59 AM

Jun 2014

and the areas they are taking are largely Sunni, whereas the Sh'ia are located more to the east. Baghdad is also largely segregated now, with Sunnis west of the river Tigris and Sh'iites to the east of it.

Given that sectarian division, and the route through the Sh'ia area to Basra and the Persian Gulf, I doubt if the insurgents could really surround and isolate the city.

Lurks Often

(5,455 posts)

5. The 3000-5000 ISIS as reported is not enough to take and hold the entire country

Reply to cali (Original post)

Tue Jun 17, 2014, 09:10 AM

Jun 2014

and when Sh'ia militias start arriving and fighting back, ISIS will end up being defeated.

My expectation is that ISIS will over extend themselves in trying to take Baghdad and will end up losing Mosul to the Kurds as the Kurds push south and west to gain more land for themselves. Additionally I expect logistical issues to start becoming a concern for ISIS shortly.

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