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hack89

(39,171 posts)
Wed Aug 6, 2014, 09:01 AM Aug 2014

A Part of Hamas Negotiates, and Another May Fight Again

CAIRO — Battered by a month of Israeli assaults on its fighters, rockets and tunnels, the militant Palestinian group Hamas is turning its attention to surviving the peace.

As both sides prepare for talks about extending a three-day truce, Israel is coming to the negotiating table emboldened to demand that Hamas surrender its weapons completely — what Israel calls the “demilitarization” of Hamas’s stronghold, Gaza. Without disarmament, Israel says, it will not ease its blockade of the territory.

Egypt, the broker of the talks and once a friendly face to Hamas, has now joined Israel in pushing to cripple the militant group. It favors putting Gaza under the control of a unified Palestinian government formed by a recent deal between Hamas and its secular rival faction, Fatah, in the hope that the new government could disarm Hamas.

But Mousa Abu Marzook, a senior Hamas political leader, said during an interview in Cairo that Hamas would still come out ahead. He said the group welcomed the new coalition government but would keep its military wing distinct — and allow it to prepare for another potential war with Israel.

The Hamas brigades “are completely separate,” Mr. Abu Marzook said.


http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/06/world/middleeast/part-of-hamas-talks-and-part-might-wait-to-fight-again.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&version=HpSum&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0

How can there be an unified Palestinian government when Hamas has its own private army not under the control of said government?
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A Part of Hamas Negotiates, and Another May Fight Again (Original Post) hack89 Aug 2014 OP
The same question could have been put about Sinn Fein in Northern Ireland intaglio Aug 2014 #1
Happens all the time actually. bemildred Aug 2014 #2
But if there are two sets of political guys for Israel to talk with hack89 Aug 2014 #4
That won't happen (political agreeing to disarm military). bemildred Aug 2014 #6
But Israel can't give the military wing what they want hack89 Aug 2014 #7
Well then, you're stuck. nt bemildred Aug 2014 #8
Sometimes the status quo is the best that can be achieved. nt hack89 Aug 2014 #11
I doubt that. nt bemildred Aug 2014 #12
And that stuckness is the point, for Hamas, to keep you stuck. bemildred Aug 2014 #9
But guys with guns never say "ok we have enough, lets have peace" hack89 Aug 2014 #10
Welcome to stuckness. nt bemildred Aug 2014 #13
I think that once ISIS rewrites the face of the ME in a whirlwind of extreme violence hack89 Aug 2014 #14
Not going ot happen. bemildred Aug 2014 #15
But traditional powers and alliances will be strained hack89 Aug 2014 #17
Yes. They are thinking they might need the IDF one of these days, those Arab states. bemildred Aug 2014 #19
Which is why Israel doesn't have to give in to unreasonable Hamas demands right now. hack89 Aug 2014 #20
It is more like why they do. bemildred Aug 2014 #21
It is an awkward situation for Hamas, allying with Hezbollah and Iran against IS. bemildred Aug 2014 #16
ISIS has their eyes set on Lebanon hack89 Aug 2014 #18
Yes, they want access to the sea. nt bemildred Aug 2014 #22
...validating Carter's recommendation to recognize Hamas. morningfog Aug 2014 #3
Recognition does not require more powerful weapons. hack89 Aug 2014 #5

intaglio

(8,170 posts)
1. The same question could have been put about Sinn Fein in Northern Ireland
Wed Aug 6, 2014, 09:18 AM
Aug 2014

But luckily people kept negotiating.

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
2. Happens all the time actually.
Wed Aug 6, 2014, 09:22 AM
Aug 2014

The political guys are there to talk, if you want to talk.
The military guys are there to fight, if you get tired of talking.
Since the objective is to wear you down, not defeat you militarily, it works fine.

hack89

(39,171 posts)
4. But if there are two sets of political guys for Israel to talk with
Wed Aug 6, 2014, 09:26 AM
Aug 2014

how do you come to a binding peace? What if the unified Palestinian government supports disarming Hamas - should Hamas comply?

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
6. That won't happen (political agreeing to disarm military).
Wed Aug 6, 2014, 09:34 AM
Aug 2014

And if they do, the military wing will tell them to fuck off.
They are no more likely to disarm willingly than Israel, and for much the same reasons.

It is not correct that the military wing is crazy.
They just gave an excellent demonstration of that fact.

They can be dealt with, they have been dealt with.
You have to give them something to lose.
And you have to stop killing the smart ones, those are the guys you need to talk with.

hack89

(39,171 posts)
7. But Israel can't give the military wing what they want
Wed Aug 6, 2014, 09:42 AM
Aug 2014

if what they want is more powerful weapons that have the potential to hit every part of Israel. No sane elected government would allow that.

The way they have to be dealt with is to maintain the status quo and deny them weapons through the blockade or through a UN inspection regime.

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
9. And that stuckness is the point, for Hamas, to keep you stuck.
Wed Aug 6, 2014, 09:54 AM
Aug 2014

If you want to get unstuck, you will have to negotiate with the guys with the guns.

hack89

(39,171 posts)
10. But guys with guns never say "ok we have enough, lets have peace"
Wed Aug 6, 2014, 10:06 AM
Aug 2014

there is always one more demand. At what point do you think the military arm of Hamas will say "we have what we want" given that what many of them want is the total destruction of Israel?

You act as if the military arm is a rational actor with rational goals.

hack89

(39,171 posts)
14. I think that once ISIS rewrites the face of the ME in a whirlwind of extreme violence
Wed Aug 6, 2014, 10:32 AM
Aug 2014

then things will change. Not necessarily to the advantage of the Palestinians because I suspect that the rest of the ME will be more concerned with basic survival. If Hamas does something incredibly stupid like allying with ISIS then all bets are off.

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
15. Not going ot happen.
Wed Aug 6, 2014, 10:38 AM
Aug 2014

IS is a very real threat, but Hamas will ally with Hezbollah and Iran against IS. IS is no use whatever to Hamas. The Saudi's will even be forced eventually to oppose IS, they already are.

hack89

(39,171 posts)
17. But traditional powers and alliances will be strained
Wed Aug 6, 2014, 10:43 AM
Aug 2014

the final disintegration of Lebanon is a real possibility. Jordan will find itself under enormous military pressure. I could see where Israel becomes the bulwark against ISIS and is given tacit approval by Jordon and Saudi Arabia to take on ISIS in exchange for a free hand with Hamas and Hezbollah.

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
19. Yes. They are thinking they might need the IDF one of these days, those Arab states.
Wed Aug 6, 2014, 10:49 AM
Aug 2014

And they are likely right.

And you can kiss the old order goodbye. I have no idea how it will shake out, but it won't be pretty.

hack89

(39,171 posts)
20. Which is why Israel doesn't have to give in to unreasonable Hamas demands right now.
Wed Aug 6, 2014, 10:52 AM
Aug 2014

the Palestinian issue may fade to relative insignificance very soon.

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
21. It is more like why they do.
Wed Aug 6, 2014, 11:05 AM
Aug 2014

They will have bigger fish to fry than Hamas, and they might need some of those Palestinians as troops one day. IS is already very well armed, except for aircraft. They are giving the Kurds a run for their money. Air support seems to be a bit over their head yet. But they will have missiles and artillery.

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
16. It is an awkward situation for Hamas, allying with Hezbollah and Iran against IS.
Wed Aug 6, 2014, 10:42 AM
Aug 2014

You are right about that, but they have already made the decision, and Hezbollah and Iran are heaping praise on Hamas as we speak.

hack89

(39,171 posts)
18. ISIS has their eyes set on Lebanon
Wed Aug 6, 2014, 10:47 AM
Aug 2014

which would severely undercut Hezbollah and Iran. An isolated Hezbollah caught between ISIS and the IDF may be a tempting target for Israel. And even if Israel abstains, a Hezbollah defeat puts ISIS on the border of Israel. War would be inevitable.

hack89

(39,171 posts)
5. Recognition does not require more powerful weapons.
Wed Aug 6, 2014, 09:27 AM
Aug 2014

perhaps Israel should recognize Hamas in return for demilitarization.

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