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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsA Part of Hamas Negotiates, and Another May Fight Again
As both sides prepare for talks about extending a three-day truce, Israel is coming to the negotiating table emboldened to demand that Hamas surrender its weapons completely what Israel calls the demilitarization of Hamass stronghold, Gaza. Without disarmament, Israel says, it will not ease its blockade of the territory.
Egypt, the broker of the talks and once a friendly face to Hamas, has now joined Israel in pushing to cripple the militant group. It favors putting Gaza under the control of a unified Palestinian government formed by a recent deal between Hamas and its secular rival faction, Fatah, in the hope that the new government could disarm Hamas.
But Mousa Abu Marzook, a senior Hamas political leader, said during an interview in Cairo that Hamas would still come out ahead. He said the group welcomed the new coalition government but would keep its military wing distinct and allow it to prepare for another potential war with Israel.
The Hamas brigades are completely separate, Mr. Abu Marzook said.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/06/world/middleeast/part-of-hamas-talks-and-part-might-wait-to-fight-again.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&version=HpSum&module=first-column-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0
How can there be an unified Palestinian government when Hamas has its own private army not under the control of said government?
intaglio
(8,170 posts)But luckily people kept negotiating.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)The political guys are there to talk, if you want to talk.
The military guys are there to fight, if you get tired of talking.
Since the objective is to wear you down, not defeat you militarily, it works fine.
hack89
(39,171 posts)how do you come to a binding peace? What if the unified Palestinian government supports disarming Hamas - should Hamas comply?
bemildred
(90,061 posts)And if they do, the military wing will tell them to fuck off.
They are no more likely to disarm willingly than Israel, and for much the same reasons.
It is not correct that the military wing is crazy.
They just gave an excellent demonstration of that fact.
They can be dealt with, they have been dealt with.
You have to give them something to lose.
And you have to stop killing the smart ones, those are the guys you need to talk with.
hack89
(39,171 posts)if what they want is more powerful weapons that have the potential to hit every part of Israel. No sane elected government would allow that.
The way they have to be dealt with is to maintain the status quo and deny them weapons through the blockade or through a UN inspection regime.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)hack89
(39,171 posts)bemildred
(90,061 posts)bemildred
(90,061 posts)If you want to get unstuck, you will have to negotiate with the guys with the guns.
hack89
(39,171 posts)there is always one more demand. At what point do you think the military arm of Hamas will say "we have what we want" given that what many of them want is the total destruction of Israel?
You act as if the military arm is a rational actor with rational goals.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)hack89
(39,171 posts)then things will change. Not necessarily to the advantage of the Palestinians because I suspect that the rest of the ME will be more concerned with basic survival. If Hamas does something incredibly stupid like allying with ISIS then all bets are off.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)IS is a very real threat, but Hamas will ally with Hezbollah and Iran against IS. IS is no use whatever to Hamas. The Saudi's will even be forced eventually to oppose IS, they already are.
hack89
(39,171 posts)the final disintegration of Lebanon is a real possibility. Jordan will find itself under enormous military pressure. I could see where Israel becomes the bulwark against ISIS and is given tacit approval by Jordon and Saudi Arabia to take on ISIS in exchange for a free hand with Hamas and Hezbollah.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)And they are likely right.
And you can kiss the old order goodbye. I have no idea how it will shake out, but it won't be pretty.
hack89
(39,171 posts)the Palestinian issue may fade to relative insignificance very soon.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)They will have bigger fish to fry than Hamas, and they might need some of those Palestinians as troops one day. IS is already very well armed, except for aircraft. They are giving the Kurds a run for their money. Air support seems to be a bit over their head yet. But they will have missiles and artillery.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)You are right about that, but they have already made the decision, and Hezbollah and Iran are heaping praise on Hamas as we speak.
hack89
(39,171 posts)which would severely undercut Hezbollah and Iran. An isolated Hezbollah caught between ISIS and the IDF may be a tempting target for Israel. And even if Israel abstains, a Hezbollah defeat puts ISIS on the border of Israel. War would be inevitable.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)morningfog
(18,115 posts)hack89
(39,171 posts)perhaps Israel should recognize Hamas in return for demilitarization.