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morningfog

(18,115 posts)
Sun Sep 7, 2014, 11:10 PM Sep 2014

Destroying ISIS May Take (Three) Years, U.S. Officials Say

The Obama administration is preparing to carry out a campaign against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria that may take three years to complete, requiring a sustained effort that could last until after President Obama has left office, according to senior administration officials.

The first phase, an air campaign with nearly 145 airstrikes in the past month, is already underway to protect ethnic and religious minorities and American diplomatic, intelligence and military personnel, and their facilities, as well as to begin rolling back ISIS gains in northern and western Iraq.

The next phase, which would begin sometime after Iraq forms a more inclusive government, scheduled this week, is expected to involve an intensified effort to train, advise or equip the Iraqi military, Kurdish fighters and possibly members of Sunni tribes.

The final, toughest and most politically controversial phase of the operation — destroying the terrorist army in its sanctuary inside Syria — might not be completed until the next administration. Indeed, some Pentagon planners envision a military campaign lasting at least 36 months.

* * *

“We have the ability to destroy ISIL,” Secretary of State John Kerry said last week at the NATO summit meeting in Wales, using an alternative name for the militant group. “It may take a year, it may take two years, it may take three years. But we’re determined it has to happen.”

Antony J. Blinken, Mr. Obama’s deputy national security adviser, has suggested that the United States is undertaking a prolonged mission. “It’s going to take time, and it will probably go beyond even this administration to get to the point of defeat,” Mr. Blinken said last week on CNN.

* * *

The United Arab Emirates, officials said, has also indicated a willingness to consider airstrikes in Iraq. Germany has said it would send arms to peshmerga fighters in Kurdistan. And rising concern over foreign fighters returning home from Syria and Iraq may also have spurred Australia, Britain, Denmark and France to join the alliance.

Administration officials acknowledged, however, that getting those same countries to agree to airstrikes in Syria was proving harder.

“Everybody is on board Iraq,” an administration official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the policy is still being developed. “But when it comes to Syria, there’s more concern” about where airstrikes could lead. The official nonetheless expressed confidence that the countries would eventually come around to taking the fight into Syria, in part, he said, because “there’s really no other alternative.”

* * *

But it is not clear if that declaration would preclude the eventual deployment of small numbers of American Special Operations forces or C.I.A. operatives to call in airstrikes on behalf of Kurdish fighters, Iraqi forces or Sunni tribes, a procedure that makes it much easier to distinguish between ISIS militants, civilians and counter ISIS fighters.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/08/world/middleeast/destroying-isis-may-take-3-years-white-house-says.html?_r=0

38 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Destroying ISIS May Take (Three) Years, U.S. Officials Say (Original Post) morningfog Sep 2014 OP
It look like we'll get a coalition (and authorization from Congress) on Iraq, and use it to morningfog Sep 2014 #1
double that time frame, and then since it will expand, add 10 years. Katashi_itto Sep 2014 #2
Add ground troops too. morningfog Sep 2014 #3
And 5 trillion dollars from grandmas social security. grahamhgreen Sep 2014 #32
That will be the fees Wall Street gets when Hillary privatizes it. Since it all needs to go to the Katashi_itto Sep 2014 #35
I feel like I have seen this movie before AnalystInParadise Sep 2014 #4
This time we'll do it without combat troops on the ground. morningfog Sep 2014 #6
Guarantees perpetual war and perpetual profits for MIC that way right? Katashi_itto Sep 2014 #36
Amazing how we took care of Nazi Germany in 3 1/2 years. trackfan Sep 2014 #5
What good is a war machine if it is efficient? morningfog Sep 2014 #7
We had a little help in that previous endeavor, Art_from_Ark Sep 2014 #8
Well AnalystInParadise Sep 2014 #10
Well they aren't really equal, right? sub.theory Sep 2014 #22
Well, we weren't trying to eradicate the concept of "Germany" Scootaloo Sep 2014 #30
I support destroying ISIL 100% MohRokTah Sep 2014 #9
I am sure we will see you over there. former9thward Sep 2014 #11
You cannot destroy an ideology with military action. morningfog Sep 2014 #13
You CAN destroy an organization with military action. eom MohRokTah Sep 2014 #19
And, like AQ spawned IS, a new "organization" with similar (or worse) morningfog Sep 2014 #20
Wait. How can you destroy an organization without military action in their country? morningfog Sep 2014 #21
How about the Saudis? They are beheading people too. nt Live and Learn Sep 2014 #15
We should not be allied with the Saudis. eom MohRokTah Sep 2014 #18
But we are, and you're not advocating bombing the shit out of them Scootaloo Sep 2014 #26
HOW DO WE PAY FOR IT? Please respond. grahamhgreen Sep 2014 #33
Nonsense... it will be over by Christmas. And their oil will pay for it. nt Bigmack Sep 2014 #12
And what of whatever group takes its place? Live and Learn Sep 2014 #14
They will be "even more brutal than IS" and then time for more war. morningfog Sep 2014 #16
DUers were warning of this outcome before we even went to Iraq. nt Live and Learn Sep 2014 #17
We should have, but it's too late now sub.theory Sep 2014 #23
I'd agree if there were a real solution but there isn't. Live and Learn Sep 2014 #24
I understand your anger sub.theory Sep 2014 #25
We can change our destructive policies. Scootaloo Sep 2014 #27
I think that's pretty wise advice sub.theory Sep 2014 #28
Syria will HAVE to be included Scootaloo Sep 2014 #29
Sounds like they think it is some sort of static group Duer 157099 Sep 2014 #31
If we destroy ISIS jambo101 Sep 2014 #34
how long is that in Tom Friedman time/space units? KG Sep 2014 #37
"It may take a year, two years, three years... however many years we need it to whatchamacallit Sep 2014 #38
 

morningfog

(18,115 posts)
1. It look like we'll get a coalition (and authorization from Congress) on Iraq, and use it to
Sun Sep 7, 2014, 11:12 PM
Sep 2014

expand into Syria.

After that, all bets (and promises) are off.

 

Katashi_itto

(10,175 posts)
35. That will be the fees Wall Street gets when Hillary privatizes it. Since it all needs to go to the
Mon Sep 8, 2014, 06:36 AM
Sep 2014

war effort.

 

morningfog

(18,115 posts)
6. This time we'll do it without combat troops on the ground.
Sun Sep 7, 2014, 11:24 PM
Sep 2014

Yeah, right.

The problem with Bush's strategy (not even considering the illegality) was that he didn't send enough ground troops and vastly underestimated the timeframe.

It is insane that we are going to be proxy the proxy air force for a fledgling country and then for a fledgling army and expect success. Of course, if you don't really define success, you can't fail, can you?

Art_from_Ark

(27,247 posts)
8. We had a little help in that previous endeavor,
Sun Sep 7, 2014, 11:33 PM
Sep 2014

from people in the underground in every Nazi-occupied country, as well as from Canada, the UK, and the USSR, to name a few.

 

AnalystInParadise

(1,832 posts)
10. Well
Sun Sep 7, 2014, 11:41 PM
Sep 2014

We also mobilized millions of men, bombed civilians with millions of tons of bombs from tens of thousands of bombers and didn't care about certain war crimes involving killing tens of thousands of civilians back then......We don't do most of that today

sub.theory

(652 posts)
22. Well they aren't really equal, right?
Mon Sep 8, 2014, 12:13 AM
Sep 2014

Well, WW2 was total war. The entire capacities of nation states were directed towards the war effort. This is a much more limited sort of action.

Also, the involvement of Russia in the East (where the overwhelming majority of fighting and dying was done) was critical to achieving victory against Nazi Germany in that timeframe. Without Russia, the war would have gone on far longer.

 

morningfog

(18,115 posts)
21. Wait. How can you destroy an organization without military action in their country?
Mon Sep 8, 2014, 12:12 AM
Sep 2014

Because bombing inside Syria is just paranoid silliness, right?

How can you destroy IS without military action in Syria?

 

Scootaloo

(25,699 posts)
26. But we are, and you're not advocating bombing the shit out of them
Mon Sep 8, 2014, 12:46 AM
Sep 2014

In fact given the Saudis are the very root of the Is problem, wouldn't it make more sense - in the "solver problems with bombs" paradigm - to reduce Riyadh to rubble before we even think about Raqqah?

Live and Learn

(12,769 posts)
14. And what of whatever group takes its place?
Sun Sep 7, 2014, 11:55 PM
Sep 2014

This is a never ending mess we have gotten ourselves in to. Maybe we should have left the Middle East alone to begin with.

sub.theory

(652 posts)
23. We should have, but it's too late now
Mon Sep 8, 2014, 12:23 AM
Sep 2014

Yes, we are in a royal mess to be sure. Would we have been better off not getting involved in wars in the Middle East? Absolutely. The problem is we can't take it back now. We're stuck dealing with the situation as it is. And it's a mess with only a set of bad options on how to start cleaning it up.

Live and Learn

(12,769 posts)
24. I'd agree if there were a real solution but there isn't.
Mon Sep 8, 2014, 12:28 AM
Sep 2014

And if we and some of our allies weren't guilty of equally horrific acts. We have no credibility and
perpetuating the killing certainly won't help. So count me out, please.

sub.theory

(652 posts)
25. I understand your anger
Mon Sep 8, 2014, 12:40 AM
Sep 2014

I understand why you're angry. It's a messy business and either way people are going to die. If we confront ISIS we will kill people. Hopefully mostly bad guys, but it is indeed very likely that innocents will be killed and maimed too, no matter the precautions taken. If we don't confront ISIS they will continue their slaughter across the Middle East leaving a tail of dead and brutalized civilians in their wake. I suspect that far more innocent lives will be lost by not acting than by acting. Can I prove this? No. But given the sheer brutality and bloodlust of ISIS, I believe it.

It is indeed a mess, and a powerful lesson on the law on unintended consequences.

 

Scootaloo

(25,699 posts)
27. We can change our destructive policies.
Mon Sep 8, 2014, 12:50 AM
Sep 2014

Leave the fighting to Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Turkey. we offer our aid, but they are the core actors. let the locals handle the local problem, with our hands only involved on request or under direst necessity (such as a repeat of the yazidi near-genocide.)

This would require the US to treat iran and syria as members of the international community, instead of wayward vassals to be crushed and humiliated. It would involve letting Iraq sort itself out, and living with the result, instead of wrestling it to get the state(s) we demand in Mesopotamia. It's a pretty radical departure from standing US policy, but if we want IS to be gone, and we want it to not come back, well, this is what it takes.

Everything we do ourselves will be seen as a foreign imposition.

sub.theory

(652 posts)
28. I think that's pretty wise advice
Mon Sep 8, 2014, 01:07 AM
Sep 2014

I think that's wise advice, and I think it's close to the policy that Obama will implement. I think American air power will continue to be heavily used, but the ground fighting will be left to regional allies. It is critical that Arab forces be involved - hopefully Gulf states (time to put your money where your mouth is Saudis). This is very important to winning back support from disenfranchised Sunnis from whom ISIS draws significant support currently. You are likely right that US forces will only be seen as foreign invasion and interference. I think Obama intends to avoid that.

I'm not at all sure that Iran or Syria will be included (I highly suspect not), but I think you are right that we can and should take an interest in bringing these states into the international community. Particularly Iran. However, I also think that these states have to recognize that this inclusion will very much depend upon their willingness to reject the support of terrorism, and their respect for basic human rights.

 

Scootaloo

(25,699 posts)
29. Syria will HAVE to be included
Mon Sep 8, 2014, 01:27 AM
Sep 2014

After all, IS is operating in Syria and has its strongholds there. We can either work with Syria, or we can make it a war agaisnt Syria - a move that will burn our asses badly, as our other Arab "allies" will see it as naked aggression and will abandon whatever coalition we've helped set up.

Iran too, is necessary; it's an ally of Iraq, and has the most capable military force in the region (unless we bring Israel in, which, uh... inadvisable. Unlikely Israel wants to get involved anyway.) it does bring the problem of being a Shia state operating against sunni forces in this case. But sometimes pragmatism trumps preference. The Supreme leader of iran has also announced that it's cool to interact with the US in response to IS. So... there's that.

Duer 157099

(17,742 posts)
31. Sounds like they think it is some sort of static group
Mon Sep 8, 2014, 01:32 AM
Sep 2014

rather than something dynamic that grows and morphs just like a cancer.

That they can predict a time frame for "destroying" it makes me highly skeptical about everything they are saying.

jambo101

(797 posts)
34. If we destroy ISIS
Mon Sep 8, 2014, 03:53 AM
Sep 2014

There will just be another group of nut jobs to take their place.
These violent religious factions need to be taken care of by their own people and not the USA.

whatchamacallit

(15,558 posts)
38. "It may take a year, two years, three years... however many years we need it to
Mon Sep 8, 2014, 10:03 AM
Sep 2014

to get the maximum mileage out of it"

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