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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsDestroying ISIS May Take (Three) Years, U.S. Officials Say
The Obama administration is preparing to carry out a campaign against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria that may take three years to complete, requiring a sustained effort that could last until after President Obama has left office, according to senior administration officials.
The first phase, an air campaign with nearly 145 airstrikes in the past month, is already underway to protect ethnic and religious minorities and American diplomatic, intelligence and military personnel, and their facilities, as well as to begin rolling back ISIS gains in northern and western Iraq.
The next phase, which would begin sometime after Iraq forms a more inclusive government, scheduled this week, is expected to involve an intensified effort to train, advise or equip the Iraqi military, Kurdish fighters and possibly members of Sunni tribes.
The final, toughest and most politically controversial phase of the operation destroying the terrorist army in its sanctuary inside Syria might not be completed until the next administration. Indeed, some Pentagon planners envision a military campaign lasting at least 36 months.
* * *
We have the ability to destroy ISIL, Secretary of State John Kerry said last week at the NATO summit meeting in Wales, using an alternative name for the militant group. It may take a year, it may take two years, it may take three years. But were determined it has to happen.
Antony J. Blinken, Mr. Obamas deputy national security adviser, has suggested that the United States is undertaking a prolonged mission. Its going to take time, and it will probably go beyond even this administration to get to the point of defeat, Mr. Blinken said last week on CNN.
* * *
The United Arab Emirates, officials said, has also indicated a willingness to consider airstrikes in Iraq. Germany has said it would send arms to peshmerga fighters in Kurdistan. And rising concern over foreign fighters returning home from Syria and Iraq may also have spurred Australia, Britain, Denmark and France to join the alliance.
Administration officials acknowledged, however, that getting those same countries to agree to airstrikes in Syria was proving harder.
Everybody is on board Iraq, an administration official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the policy is still being developed. But when it comes to Syria, theres more concern about where airstrikes could lead. The official nonetheless expressed confidence that the countries would eventually come around to taking the fight into Syria, in part, he said, because theres really no other alternative.
* * *
But it is not clear if that declaration would preclude the eventual deployment of small numbers of American Special Operations forces or C.I.A. operatives to call in airstrikes on behalf of Kurdish fighters, Iraqi forces or Sunni tribes, a procedure that makes it much easier to distinguish between ISIS militants, civilians and counter ISIS fighters.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/08/world/middleeast/destroying-isis-may-take-3-years-white-house-says.html?_r=0
morningfog
(18,115 posts)expand into Syria.
After that, all bets (and promises) are off.
Katashi_itto
(10,175 posts)Last edited Sun Sep 7, 2014, 11:50 PM - Edit history (1)
morningfog
(18,115 posts)grahamhgreen
(15,741 posts)Katashi_itto
(10,175 posts)war effort.
AnalystInParadise
(1,832 posts)Around 10-11 years ago...........
morningfog
(18,115 posts)Yeah, right.
The problem with Bush's strategy (not even considering the illegality) was that he didn't send enough ground troops and vastly underestimated the timeframe.
It is insane that we are going to be proxy the proxy air force for a fledgling country and then for a fledgling army and expect success. Of course, if you don't really define success, you can't fail, can you?
Katashi_itto
(10,175 posts)trackfan
(3,650 posts)We must really suck now, compared to then.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)Art_from_Ark
(27,247 posts)from people in the underground in every Nazi-occupied country, as well as from Canada, the UK, and the USSR, to name a few.
AnalystInParadise
(1,832 posts)We also mobilized millions of men, bombed civilians with millions of tons of bombs from tens of thousands of bombers and didn't care about certain war crimes involving killing tens of thousands of civilians back then......We don't do most of that today
sub.theory
(652 posts)Well, WW2 was total war. The entire capacities of nation states were directed towards the war effort. This is a much more limited sort of action.
Also, the involvement of Russia in the East (where the overwhelming majority of fighting and dying was done) was critical to achieving victory against Nazi Germany in that timeframe. Without Russia, the war would have gone on far longer.
Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)Whatever it takes.
former9thward
(32,019 posts)Not.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)morningfog
(18,115 posts)ideology will spawn.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)Because bombing inside Syria is just paranoid silliness, right?
How can you destroy IS without military action in Syria?
Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)In fact given the Saudis are the very root of the Is problem, wouldn't it make more sense - in the "solver problems with bombs" paradigm - to reduce Riyadh to rubble before we even think about Raqqah?
grahamhgreen
(15,741 posts)Bigmack
(8,020 posts)Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)This is a never ending mess we have gotten ourselves in to. Maybe we should have left the Middle East alone to begin with.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)sub.theory
(652 posts)Yes, we are in a royal mess to be sure. Would we have been better off not getting involved in wars in the Middle East? Absolutely. The problem is we can't take it back now. We're stuck dealing with the situation as it is. And it's a mess with only a set of bad options on how to start cleaning it up.
Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)And if we and some of our allies weren't guilty of equally horrific acts. We have no credibility and
perpetuating the killing certainly won't help. So count me out, please.
sub.theory
(652 posts)I understand why you're angry. It's a messy business and either way people are going to die. If we confront ISIS we will kill people. Hopefully mostly bad guys, but it is indeed very likely that innocents will be killed and maimed too, no matter the precautions taken. If we don't confront ISIS they will continue their slaughter across the Middle East leaving a tail of dead and brutalized civilians in their wake. I suspect that far more innocent lives will be lost by not acting than by acting. Can I prove this? No. But given the sheer brutality and bloodlust of ISIS, I believe it.
It is indeed a mess, and a powerful lesson on the law on unintended consequences.
Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)Leave the fighting to Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Turkey. we offer our aid, but they are the core actors. let the locals handle the local problem, with our hands only involved on request or under direst necessity (such as a repeat of the yazidi near-genocide.)
This would require the US to treat iran and syria as members of the international community, instead of wayward vassals to be crushed and humiliated. It would involve letting Iraq sort itself out, and living with the result, instead of wrestling it to get the state(s) we demand in Mesopotamia. It's a pretty radical departure from standing US policy, but if we want IS to be gone, and we want it to not come back, well, this is what it takes.
Everything we do ourselves will be seen as a foreign imposition.
sub.theory
(652 posts)I think that's wise advice, and I think it's close to the policy that Obama will implement. I think American air power will continue to be heavily used, but the ground fighting will be left to regional allies. It is critical that Arab forces be involved - hopefully Gulf states (time to put your money where your mouth is Saudis). This is very important to winning back support from disenfranchised Sunnis from whom ISIS draws significant support currently. You are likely right that US forces will only be seen as foreign invasion and interference. I think Obama intends to avoid that.
I'm not at all sure that Iran or Syria will be included (I highly suspect not), but I think you are right that we can and should take an interest in bringing these states into the international community. Particularly Iran. However, I also think that these states have to recognize that this inclusion will very much depend upon their willingness to reject the support of terrorism, and their respect for basic human rights.
Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)After all, IS is operating in Syria and has its strongholds there. We can either work with Syria, or we can make it a war agaisnt Syria - a move that will burn our asses badly, as our other Arab "allies" will see it as naked aggression and will abandon whatever coalition we've helped set up.
Iran too, is necessary; it's an ally of Iraq, and has the most capable military force in the region (unless we bring Israel in, which, uh... inadvisable. Unlikely Israel wants to get involved anyway.) it does bring the problem of being a Shia state operating against sunni forces in this case. But sometimes pragmatism trumps preference. The Supreme leader of iran has also announced that it's cool to interact with the US in response to IS. So... there's that.
Duer 157099
(17,742 posts)rather than something dynamic that grows and morphs just like a cancer.
That they can predict a time frame for "destroying" it makes me highly skeptical about everything they are saying.
jambo101
(797 posts)There will just be another group of nut jobs to take their place.
These violent religious factions need to be taken care of by their own people and not the USA.
KG
(28,751 posts)whatchamacallit
(15,558 posts)to get the maximum mileage out of it"