General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsIf ISIS is based in Syria, why are we not helping Assad to fight them?
Re-elected with an overwhelming majority just months ago, Assad is a democratically elected secular leader. We always say we eant other countries to experience democracy -- and Syria does. Assad has the most to lose from ISIS and is highly motivated to fight them.
If we really want stability in the region then why do we not help Assad shut down ISIS? If we don't help Assad then Iran and Russia will. Any combination of drone strikes, advisers, ground troops or invasions will weaken Assad and further de-stabilize the region.
MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)Unless the Congress authorizes the use of force in Syria, Obama is never going to bomb ISIS in Syria.
This is the job of Congress.
KurtNYC
(14,549 posts)morningfog
(18,115 posts)Because Obama has already said he doesn't necessarily need Congress to strike in Syria.
TwilightGardener
(46,416 posts)until now. He used ISIS to keep other rebel groups (ones with western backing) down. He basically let them have the northeast of the country, didn't bother fighting them. ONLY NOW is he starting to do airstrikes against them, and that's because he's nervous about new US surveillance flights and the possibility that we will soon begin striking targets in Syria. So, the US doesn't want to reward this bastard for allowing the cancer to grow unchecked when it suited his purposes.
KurtNYC
(14,549 posts)But US, Western European, Saudi, and Arab Gulf policy is to overthrow President Bashar al-Assad, which happens to be the policy of ISIS and other jihadis in Syria. If Assad goes, then ISIS will be the beneficiary, since it is either defeating or absorbing the rest of the Syrian armed opposition. There is a pretense in Washington and elsewhere that there exists a "moderate" Syrian opposition being helped by the US, Qatar, Turkey, and the Saudis. It is, however, weak and getting more so by the day. Soon the new caliphate may stretch from the Iranian border to the Mediterranean and the only force that can possibly stop this from happening is the Syrian army.
The reality of US policy is to support the government of Iraq, but not Syria, against ISIS. But one reason that group has been able to grow so strong in Iraq is that it can draw on its resources and fighters in Syria. Not everything that went wrong in Iraq was the fault of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, as has now become the political and media consensus in the West. Iraqi politicians have been telling me for the last two years that foreign backing for the Sunni revolt in Syria would inevitably destabilize their country as well. This has now happened.
By continuing these contradictory policies in two countries, the US has ensured that ISIS can reinforce its fighters in Iraq from Syria and vice versa. So far, Washington has been successful in escaping blame for the rise of ISIS by putting all the blame on the Iraqi government. In fact, it has created a situation in which ISIS can survive and may well flourish.
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2014/08/how-us-helped-isis-grow-monster-iraq-syria-assad
TwilightGardener
(46,416 posts)But Assad isn't a threat to the US. So we have mostly left him alone (despite some support for FSA). But he's not going to like it when we end up having to bomb in Syria to take out ISIS, and that's going to put some pressure on him to act against the group himself.
sabrina 1
(62,325 posts)And when did the title 'ISIS' first emerge? I don't recall anyone using that name this time last year, but do recall criticism of Assad for going after terrorists ALL OVER Syria. So I'm wondering about several things.
1) How would you know whether or not Assad was going after ISIS last year?
2) Why were he Western Nations, until the UK Parliament finally refused to continue doing so, backing these anti-Assad terror groups? Where did ISIS get all those US weapons?
I'd like some links, credible links not the Corporate Media propaganda that supports your theory.
TwilightGardener
(46,416 posts)jberryhill
(62,444 posts)If two guys are going to fight with each other in order to have the winner of that fight come after you, then you want those two guys to have a good bloody fight first.
DetlefK
(16,423 posts)Improvised shrapnel-bombs made from old barrels, gas and scrap-metal?
Dropped by helicopters over civilian areas that support the rebels?
Does that ring a bell?
KurtNYC
(14,549 posts)Are we not proposing air strikes now?
(Not saying any of this is good, just trying to understand what reasons have been given for over throwing Assad.)
DetlefK
(16,423 posts)He was bombing urban areas full of civilians that had nothing to do with the rebels except sympathizing with them.
Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)is still your enemy.
Siding with Assad would be a mistake.
pampango
(24,692 posts)in Raqqa, he started to attack them.
When IS comes after its rivals among the rebels, it is vicious, mowing them down without conscience. Even classic al-Qaeda under Ayman al-Zawahiri has condemned IS and kicked it out of al-Qaeda.
Abu al-Miqdad of the Islamic Front, which has fought both the regime and IS, said he supported the American intervention against IS because of the latters bloodthirstiness. They dont distinguish between civilians and combatants and they kill people with knives, he said. Who kills people with knives? He said he hoped the US bombed every last one of them to smithereens. They are not Muslims, he said, but infidels. He said that real Muslims would never have done what they did to civilians and to the Free Syrian Army.
Jaber, head of the Islamic Fronts ad hoc military police in Aleppo, agreed that the US air strikes would be welcome. He said that fighters were facing a de facto alliance of the regime of Bashar al-Assad with IS, since the two avoided fighting each other and concentrated on the other rebels.
Meanwhile, the UN has issued a report condemning both the Baath and IS/ ISIL for war crimes.
http://www.juancole.com/2014/08/welcome-strikes-terrorists.html
Syria jets hit Islamic State targets in Raqqa
Regime planes bombard Islamic State positions as fighters close in on Tabqa air base in northern Raqqa province. Activists say Syrian jets have bombarded positions of the Islamic State group in the northern province of Raqqa as the self-declared jihadists close in on the last army base in the region.
Government forces have previously held off from targeting the Islamic State group, formerly known as ISIL - a strategy that has aided the group's battle against other rebels such as the Islamic Front coalition, the Free Syrian Army and al-Qaeda's affiliate in the Syrian war, the Nusra Front.
Syria's president, Bashar al-Assad, has long painted the uprising in Syria as a foreign-backed conspiracy and his enemies say he has allowed the Islamic State to grow to promote that idea.
The attacks come after the Islamic State group on Thursday captured the headquarters of Syria's 17th Division, based in the Raqqa area. It posted a video online of its operation.
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2014/08/syria-islamic-state-raqqa-201481812135189335.html
If Mr. Assad were serious about defeating ISIS he would have been attacking it for years now. His air force has been quite effective against the rebel groups on which it has concentrated its bombing. And his air force is not shy about bombing rebels surrounded by civilians in urban areas:
Syrian conflict: Assad forces 'hit IS-run bakery'
Syrian government jets have hit a training camp and a bakery run by the Islamic State militant group in Raqqa, killing 25 people, activists have said.
Civilians and militants died in the strikes, UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29095356
Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)"So long as you stay out of our yard, we don't care how many Arabs you slaughter. Cross the line and we'll shoot, until then, do whatever you want dudes."
But then, the Kurds have lots of oil. Assad has lots of barley. And since Americans don't know how to make a decent beer...
pampango
(24,692 posts)AFAIK, when ISIS started attacking Kurdish areas they fought back right away. Should the Iraqi Kurds have taken the initiative and attacked ISIS in Syria before it had the chance to invade Iraq and the Kurdish area?
Does Assad not consider eastern and northern Syria to be part of the country anymore? "As long as you stay out of the part of Syria that I still control, I don't care how many Arabs you slaughter in other parts of Syria."
That seems to have been the deal that Assad had with ISIS until last month when the latter broke it and captured his last military base in the north. One would think that Assad would have been attacking ISIS from the minute the showed up on Syrian territory - kind of like what the Kurds did in their territory.
Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)Just as in Iraq, it's spent more time attacking the Iraqi army.
Why would Assad interrupt them/ Why would the Iraqi Kurds?
It's basic strategy, pampango; let IS eliminate your other rivals. Doing so reduced the fronts you are fighting on, and weakens the last man standing, whoever it is. Then mop up.
pampango
(24,692 posts)concentrate on attacking ISIS, while the Syrian military leaves them alone and also concentrates on ISIS?" This alternative would accomplish the same goal: "let them eliminate each other, weaken the last man standing, then come in and mop up" without creating the monster that everyone considers ISIS to be.
It is still odd to me that he chose to form his tacit alliance with ISIS against the other opposition groups instead of the other way around.
I certainly agree that Assad is a very smart man and is interested in one thing - remaining the dictator of Syria (all of it if possible, a smaller part of it if unavoidable).
How's that working for you, Mr. Assad? Apparently ignoring and/or supporting ISIS for this long has not actually weakened them at all.
Of course, perhaps that was Plan B. If ISIS was not weakened by its fighting with other opposition groups, so that his military could mop them up, but instead came out stronger than ever - there is still a benefit for Mr. Assad. "Hey! Now look at who the most powerful opposition to me is! I look pretty good by comparison now, don't I?"
As I said, a very smart guy.
Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)Apparently they figure they can overthrow Assad, then maybe take on IS with US backing or something.
I think Assad's strategy is to wear down the not-insane rebel factions until they have to capitulate to one or the other - and almost all of them who do so will favor Syria over IS. Thus the core of the insurrection is co-opted, Syria's forces get a renewed bit of strength, and IS finds itself hammered on three fronts - Syria, Iraq, Kurdistan (Kurdistan is going to be a reality after this, almost 100% certain.)
It's not terribly complex, but then it doesn't actually need to be.
pampango
(24,692 posts)control the part of Syria where the Sunni majority lives. (And Assad may have not believed they were capable of achieving that.) ISIS does not particularly care if he rules the rest of Syria.
I understand Assad's tactical decision fight the "not-insane" rebel factions and to in effect divide the country (at least temporarily) between himself and the "insane" rebel faction. He has 'lost' the battle with ISIS (though a 'battle' with no fighting) but he is still in power (if his domain is somewhat diminished). If he 'lost' to the other rebel factions, he would - if he was lucky - enjoying his billions in retirement, perhaps in Russia since it has been a great friend.
I think that proves he is nothing more than a common, self-centered dictator solely interested in retaining power. If he were really primarily interested in protecting Syria from 'terrorists' (which is what he has claimed publicly all along), he might have adopted a different strategy, but I understand what he is doing and why.
Comrade Grumpy
(13,184 posts)But to say that Assad deliberately let ISIS have northeast Syria is tendentious. Syria is the midst of a multi-sided civil war, and the Syrian army is stretched thin.
Just remember, there was no ISIS in Syria before the civil war began. And our government, along with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, and others, has had a hand in it all along. This is blowback.
pampango
(24,692 posts)as the rebel group to form a tacit alliance with. "I won't attack you if you don't attack me. We can both concentrate on attacking other rebel groups."
Could he not have worked out such a tacit agreement with the Free Syrian Army or other rebel groups rather than with ISIS? That would have had the logic of having Syrians cooperating with each other to defeat and expel a group of foreign jihadists. Then Assad and the Syrian rebel groups could have gone back to fighting each other.
Instead when Assad chose which group of rebels he would not attack, he chose the group of foreign jihadists. As you said, ISIS was not even in Syria at the beginning so they would have been relatively easy to defeat when they first started to show up had Assad not chosen to give them a free ride.
It was an odd choice of a partner.
I did not say that. I said that Assad deliberately did not attack ISIS. Perhaps he thought thought ISIS would not be as successful at taking and holding territory as they have proved to be. In that case it was great miscalculation on the part of a very smart man.
NOW he has ordered his air force to start attacking ISIS - either because they broke the alliance by attacking and capturing the military base in the north or because he sees a chance to show the West that "we are all on the same anti-ISIS side here" or both. "I'll help you attack ISIS but what's in it for me? You know what I want - to rule Syria until I am an old man and die a natural death. I can work out a deal with anyone, as I proved with ISIS, as long as it serves my purpose. Can you?"
Comrade Grumpy
(13,184 posts)It makes eminent, cynical sense. Again, the Syrian military is a force under severe stress on multiple fronts.
Yeah, he might have miscalculated, especially after ISIS rolled through Iraq and got all those new US-made military toys and took them back to Syria. ISIS is definitely scarier now than it was before that.
And, yes, it is good (in some ways) to have ISIS as a bogeyman. Assad has been trying to say all along that his opponents are "terrorists," and ISIS certainly fills the bill.
pampango
(24,692 posts)The tactic of letting rebel groups fight each other as much as possible makes, as you say, "eminent, cynical sense". And the idea of letting one rebel group alone so that it has a relative advantage over the other groups makes some tactical sense as well.
My question is: How/why did he choose ISIS as the rebel group that would be the beneficiary of the decision not attack militarily? It could just as easily been one of the other rebel groups since they have been fighting with ISIS, just as ISIS has been fighting with them.
Funny how you get what you want sometimes.
mylye2222
(2,992 posts)working hands-in -hands.
Comrade Grumpy
(13,184 posts)And who can blame him?
But the Syrian state and ISIS are mortal enemies. ISIS would chop off Assad's head in a second and probably murder as many of his Alawites as they can.
pampango
(24,692 posts)Instead they had a tacit (or explicit, who knows) agreement not to attack each other. That sounds like some really friendly 'mortal enemies'. The other rebel groups were apparently even more 'mortal enemies' of Assad than ISIS was. He chose not to attack ISIS while his military concentrated on the other rebel groups.
That is a good strategy from the point of view of a dictator who is subject to a lot of opposition. The question would be: If are going to attack some rebel groups but not all of them - while you let them fight each other - how do you choose which groups to attack and which to leave alone?
KamaAina
(78,249 posts)Almost as overwhelming as Kim Jong-Un's.
KurtNYC
(14,549 posts)I hear you but I think it is possible that some segments of the people of Syria have rallied around Assad in the face of foreign mercs and Wahhabis invading the country, much the way GWB's numbers soared when we were attacked in 2001.
Assad is NOT the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas, ISIS, Khomeni, etc. If we succeed in overthrowing Assad it seems likely that extremist Sunni Muslims will take control in Syria because they have the numbers and Saudi money to do so. I don't see how that would be better for the region or for the US.
bhikkhu
(10,718 posts)...because he's guilty of atrocities of his own, and would likely use any assistance we gave him to consolidate his own power, at the expense of the populace there. He's the head of a minority party that's clinging to power by means of brutality. That doesn't mean ISIS is any better (or worse), just that its one more tragic mess that we don't really have a good means to do anything about.
arcane1
(38,613 posts)KurtNYC
(14,549 posts)I think ISIS is being used as an excuse for the US to help overthrow Assad. I also suspect that any further moves by Russia into the Ukraine will prompt an invasion of Syria by another "coalition of the willing." And I agree that a weak and unstable Syria suits many of PTB just fine.