General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsGrimes internal poll shows tied race with McConnell
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/217259-grimes-internal-shows-tied-race-with-mcconnellThe survey, from the Mellman Group, actually gives Grimes a 1-point lead, with 43 percent support from likely voters to McConnells 42 percent support; 15 percent remain undecided.
<SNIP>
Weve been right when these public polls have been wrong, he said. I'm more confident in our methods than I am what the public polls are doing.
Mellman highlighted his work for New York City Comptroller Scott Stringer in 2013. Public polls showed Stringer trailing former New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer by double digits, but his own polling nearly nailed the final margin. He also polled for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) during his 2010 reelection fight, which pegged the race correctly, even as most public polling showed Reid trailing his GOP challenger.
Mellman said hes confident in his Kentucky Senate poll because it modeled the likely electorate, not just likely voters, by analyzing each individuals vote history and what that does to their probable vote this cycle.
Graimes is a self-proclaimed "Clinton Democrat." While this isn't usually a bonus to me, I don't live in Kentucky, and am hoping it means something to her future constituents, because even the most centrist Democrat is infinitely superior to Mitch.
If Grimes and Mellman's internal polls are right, Kentucky is on the verge of finally freeing themselves from this pathetic legacy left by Mitch McConnell.
MineralMan
(146,324 posts)That will make the difference.
yeoman6987
(14,449 posts)I know some didn't like the commercial, but she has to do what the state of Kentucky wants her to do.
Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)demwing
(16,916 posts)America is a blue/purple country.
While Grimes makes an understandable lean to the right, what is the excuse of the President?
Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)go with the flow because you have to. It is not a lean to the right, it is conceding he power of the mass media and being forced to soothe the cowardly fear of the majority in the land of the brave.
demwing
(16,916 posts)As we've been taught, the war machine has a very big umbrella...
A Simple Game
(9,214 posts)Do you expect the applicant to suddenly change many of their positions when they get the job?
You would embrace all the programs you hated when the former employee embraced them because the new hire suddenly embraces them after saying on their application they would get rid of or modify them?
Remember like stockholders own a company, we citizens own this country, those we elect are no different than an employee a company hires to do a job. If an employee doesn't perform as promised would you criticize them or pat them on the back?
demwing
(16,916 posts)It was a play to his.
I'm not all butt-hurt about that ad. Grimes has taken on a tough job as a giant killer. She'll need every trick in every book to succeed.
We should focus on how we'll all feel on November 5th when the Republicans have to pick a new Minority Leader
PearliePoo2
(7,768 posts)Oh yeah..
K&R
MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)Maybe we will even GAIN seats in the Senate!! Orman is an Indy, but will undoubtedly caucus with Dems.
PearliePoo2
(7,768 posts)The poll was conducted Sept. 4-7.
I sure hope these numbers hold! (or improve)
riversedge
(70,270 posts)seems like a lot to me. Then again. I am In Wisconsin where Dems an Repugs are set in stone--or so it seems these last several years. Polls in WI have essentially been tied all summer and fall--give or take a few. Best to Grimes --and therefore to all the folks in Kentucky
demwing
(16,916 posts)Last edited Sun Sep 21, 2014, 02:00 PM - Edit history (1)
but McConnell's RCP average is at 47% and change.
That's got to be a bad place for an incumbent. Granted, Obama was in a similar position in 2012, but I don't think anyone would favorably compare McConnell's communication skills or likeability to that of the President.
Grimes may not ultimately triumph, but McConnell is in deep shit - especially if the mainstream polls start mirroring Grimes' Internal numbers.
Tikki
(14,559 posts)to today's voters.
I wish the Dems had more young candidates out there for highest offices.
Tikki
marble falls
(57,144 posts)lot of tipping points going on all over the country.
c588415
(285 posts)demwing
(16,916 posts)madville
(7,412 posts)Because all the other polls around this timespan have him between +4 to +8.
demwing
(16,916 posts)http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/10/which-polls-fared-best-and-worst-in-the-2012-presidential-race/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=1
demwing
(16,916 posts)demwing
(16,916 posts)for the Monday-Friday crowd