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demwing

(16,916 posts)
Sun Sep 21, 2014, 10:13 AM Sep 2014

Grimes internal poll shows tied race with McConnell

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/217259-grimes-internal-shows-tied-race-with-mcconnell

Facing a string of troubling public polls that have shown Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) opening up a solid lead, his Democratic challenger, Alison Lundergan Grimes, released one of her own on Wednesday that pegged the race as a tie.

The survey, from the Mellman Group, actually gives Grimes a 1-point lead, with 43 percent support from likely voters to McConnell’s 42 percent support; 15 percent remain undecided.


<SNIP>

Mark Mellman, who is also a columnist for The Hill, expressed confidence in his results, noting his firm’s success rate in previous races.

“We’ve been right when these public polls have been wrong,” he said. “I'm more confident in our methods than I am what the public polls are doing.”

Mellman highlighted his work for New York City Comptroller Scott Stringer in 2013. Public polls showed Stringer trailing former New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer by double digits, but his own polling nearly nailed the final margin. He also polled for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) during his 2010 reelection fight, which pegged the race correctly, even as most public polling showed Reid trailing his GOP challenger.

Mellman said he’s confident in his Kentucky Senate poll because it modeled “the likely electorate, not just likely voters,” by analyzing “each individual’s vote history and what that does to their probable vote” this cycle.


Graimes is a self-proclaimed "Clinton Democrat." While this isn't usually a bonus to me, I don't live in Kentucky, and am hoping it means something to her future constituents, because even the most centrist Democrat is infinitely superior to Mitch.

If Grimes and Mellman's internal polls are right, Kentucky is on the verge of finally freeing themselves from this pathetic legacy left by Mitch McConnell.
21 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Grimes internal poll shows tied race with McConnell (Original Post) demwing Sep 2014 OP
GOTV, Kentucky! MineralMan Sep 2014 #1
Her gun commercial is working yeoman6987 Sep 2014 #2
Yes, but when the same dynamics force Obama to do things....no forgiveness there, notice that? Fred Sanders Sep 2014 #7
Kentucky is a Red state demwing Sep 2014 #9
When America is in mass hysteria over a false fear half a world away, you do what Grimes did... Fred Sanders Sep 2014 #10
I wasn't referring to the war on ISIS demwing Sep 2014 #12
You expect less from an employee than you do a job applicant? A Simple Game Sep 2014 #13
Agreed. It wasn't a play to her base demwing Sep 2014 #11
This is such GOOD news! PearliePoo2 Sep 2014 #3
Bring it home Grimes and Orman! MoonRiver Sep 2014 #4
This article was written Sept. 10th and.. PearliePoo2 Sep 2014 #5
"15 percent remain undecided" umm... riversedge Sep 2014 #6
I know the "Incumbent Rule" has faded in popularity demwing Sep 2014 #8
I'm going to say this and I'm not sure it is going to stand up...A young strong candidate looks good Tikki Sep 2014 #14
Tipping point. I think the GOP will lose seats in both the House and Senate. There's seems to be.... marble falls Sep 2014 #15
Have you ever wondered if a 4/eyed snapping turtle sweats? c588415 Sep 2014 #16
Turtle Sweat - Sounds like a car wax demwing Sep 2014 #17
I hope that's the case madville Sep 2014 #18
Nate Silver praised Mellman's Polling in 2012 demwing Sep 2014 #19
AUDIO: Mellman's press call: demwing Sep 2014 #20
self kick demwing Sep 2014 #21
 

yeoman6987

(14,449 posts)
2. Her gun commercial is working
Sun Sep 21, 2014, 10:20 AM
Sep 2014

I know some didn't like the commercial, but she has to do what the state of Kentucky wants her to do.

 

demwing

(16,916 posts)
9. Kentucky is a Red state
Sun Sep 21, 2014, 10:59 AM
Sep 2014

America is a blue/purple country.

While Grimes makes an understandable lean to the right, what is the excuse of the President?

Fred Sanders

(23,946 posts)
10. When America is in mass hysteria over a false fear half a world away, you do what Grimes did...
Sun Sep 21, 2014, 11:05 AM
Sep 2014

go with the flow because you have to. It is not a lean to the right, it is conceding he power of the mass media and being forced to soothe the cowardly fear of the majority in the land of the brave.

 

demwing

(16,916 posts)
12. I wasn't referring to the war on ISIS
Sun Sep 21, 2014, 11:10 AM
Sep 2014

As we've been taught, the war machine has a very big umbrella...

A Simple Game

(9,214 posts)
13. You expect less from an employee than you do a job applicant?
Sun Sep 21, 2014, 11:26 AM
Sep 2014

Do you expect the applicant to suddenly change many of their positions when they get the job?

You would embrace all the programs you hated when the former employee embraced them because the new hire suddenly embraces them after saying on their application they would get rid of or modify them?

Remember like stockholders own a company, we citizens own this country, those we elect are no different than an employee a company hires to do a job. If an employee doesn't perform as promised would you criticize them or pat them on the back?

 

demwing

(16,916 posts)
11. Agreed. It wasn't a play to her base
Sun Sep 21, 2014, 11:07 AM
Sep 2014

It was a play to his.

I'm not all butt-hurt about that ad. Grimes has taken on a tough job as a giant killer. She'll need every trick in every book to succeed.

We should focus on how we'll all feel on November 5th when the Republicans have to pick a new Minority Leader

MoonRiver

(36,926 posts)
4. Bring it home Grimes and Orman!
Sun Sep 21, 2014, 10:29 AM
Sep 2014

Maybe we will even GAIN seats in the Senate!! Orman is an Indy, but will undoubtedly caucus with Dems.

PearliePoo2

(7,768 posts)
5. This article was written Sept. 10th and..
Sun Sep 21, 2014, 10:35 AM
Sep 2014

The poll was conducted Sept. 4-7.
I sure hope these numbers hold! (or improve)



riversedge

(70,270 posts)
6. "15 percent remain undecided" umm...
Sun Sep 21, 2014, 10:36 AM
Sep 2014

seems like a lot to me. Then again. I am In Wisconsin where Dems an Repugs are set in stone--or so it seems these last several years. Polls in WI have essentially been tied all summer and fall--give or take a few. Best to Grimes --and therefore to all the folks in Kentucky

 

demwing

(16,916 posts)
8. I know the "Incumbent Rule" has faded in popularity
Sun Sep 21, 2014, 10:56 AM
Sep 2014

Last edited Sun Sep 21, 2014, 02:00 PM - Edit history (1)

but McConnell's RCP average is at 47% and change.

That's got to be a bad place for an incumbent. Granted, Obama was in a similar position in 2012, but I don't think anyone would favorably compare McConnell's communication skills or likeability to that of the President.

Grimes may not ultimately triumph, but McConnell is in deep shit - especially if the mainstream polls start mirroring Grimes' Internal numbers.

Tikki

(14,559 posts)
14. I'm going to say this and I'm not sure it is going to stand up...A young strong candidate looks good
Sun Sep 21, 2014, 12:46 PM
Sep 2014

to today's voters.

I wish the Dems had more young candidates out there for highest offices.

Tikki

marble falls

(57,144 posts)
15. Tipping point. I think the GOP will lose seats in both the House and Senate. There's seems to be....
Sun Sep 21, 2014, 12:59 PM
Sep 2014

lot of tipping points going on all over the country.

 

demwing

(16,916 posts)
19. Nate Silver praised Mellman's Polling in 2012
Sun Sep 21, 2014, 07:59 PM
Sep 2014
"Among telephone-based polling firms that conducted a significant number of state-by-state surveys, the best results came from CNN, Mellman and Grove Insight. The latter two conducted most of their polls on behalf of liberal-leaning organizations. However, as I mentioned, since the polling consensus underestimated Mr. Obama’s performance somewhat, the polls that seemed to be Democratic-leaning often came closest to the mark."
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/10/which-polls-fared-best-and-worst-in-the-2012-presidential-race/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=1


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