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Donald Ian Rankin

(13,598 posts)
Tue Sep 23, 2014, 12:36 PM Sep 2014

The strong argument against attacking ISIS is not the lives, it's the money.


In various places I've seen people opposing US air strikes on ISIS on the grounds that they may well result in civilian casualties.

That strikes me as a deeply misguided argument - a lot of innocent civilians are going to die either way, and it looks to me highly likely that more will die if the US does not get involved than if it does (although I'm far from an expert analyst; while the amateur "bombs will kill people argument" is clearly silly, a professional "the likely death toll will be higher if the US gets involved, for these reasons" might conceivably not be. But I'd bet the other way, and in any case, it's the former and not the latter that is common on DU).



Another line of argument boils down to presenting it as a choice between "peace" and "war". This one, I think, is even more clearly wholly specious. The choice is *not* between war and peace, it's between war with the US helping out the less-evil side, and war without the US helping out the less-evil side.



The strong, and probably overwhelming, argument against attacking ISIS, in my view, is not the lives, it's the money.

Yes, the US can probably reduce the number of innocent people who get killed in the short term by bombing ISIS, but because a) it's hard to see it resulting in a decent long-term outcome, and b) air strikes are very expensive, the number of dollars spent per life saved will be quite low compared to the number of lives that could probably be saved by spending that money on e.g. mosquito nets, or even possibly by spending it on fighting other terrorist groups elsewhere in regions where there's a greater chance of establishing a functioning state.

You can buy an awful lot of mosquito nets for the cost of a missile.




But the "You support killing innocent people! You support war!"-type arguments (I caricature, but only slightly) arguments that I see flung by opponents of air strikes at supporters of them has less than no merit, I think - *both* sides support courses of action that will result in horrible war and innocent people dying, and if you only factor in likely outcome in Iraq, rather than the potential benefit from that much effort deployed elsewhere, it's certainly not obvious that the US getting involved will not make the likely outcome better.
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The strong argument against attacking ISIS is not the lives, it's the money. (Original Post) Donald Ian Rankin Sep 2014 OP
That's the argument the Oilagarchs use leftstreet Sep 2014 #1
I don't think that was the point. Skidmore Sep 2014 #4
Did you read the whole post, or just the title? Donald Ian Rankin Sep 2014 #5
The whole thing leftstreet Sep 2014 #8
Are you deliberately misunderstanding, or are you just unable to help it? N.T. Donald Ian Rankin Sep 2014 #12
The bottom line is that the ME will be a hotbed of turmoil as long Skidmore Sep 2014 #2
who believes that isis is going to stay confined unless samsingh Sep 2014 #3
Me, yes and no respectively. Donald Ian Rankin Sep 2014 #6
then maybe their neighbors should be concerned with confining them NightWatcher Sep 2014 #7
they are not confining them samsingh Sep 2014 #13
I wonder how much the Saudis and Israelis postulater Sep 2014 #9
Your speculation is kind of pointless because you don't rest it on any facts cali Sep 2014 #10
And there you have the real problem. Any action we take against ISIS is their key to recruiting more jwirr Sep 2014 #11
Say what??? GeorgeGist Sep 2014 #14
Sorry, let me remove some of those negatives. Donald Ian Rankin Sep 2014 #15

leftstreet

(36,108 posts)
1. That's the argument the Oilagarchs use
Tue Sep 23, 2014, 12:40 PM
Sep 2014

It's not the lives, it's the market shares. Exxon, Gazprom, Sinopac and their politician puppets all probably agree it's about saving money!

Skidmore

(37,364 posts)
4. I don't think that was the point.
Tue Sep 23, 2014, 12:44 PM
Sep 2014

It's not about saving money, but making it and underwriting economies using a finite resource. Three dollar political jargon doesn't change the reality that blood has been shed over resources throughout history--over water, coal, land, oil, precious metals and ores, and perhaps once again over water. Getting the common man to find common cause and to work together should be the goal.

leftstreet

(36,108 posts)
8. The whole thing
Tue Sep 23, 2014, 12:50 PM
Sep 2014

It's not about squishy unicorn things like human lives, because hey people are going to die anyway...but about the best use of money and resources.

I'm sure these things are tactfully powerpointed in the boardrooms of the gas/oil industries

Skidmore

(37,364 posts)
2. The bottom line is that the ME will be a hotbed of turmoil as long
Tue Sep 23, 2014, 12:40 PM
Sep 2014

as there is a resource which the First World needs to sustain its economies. Until people are willing to either live without doodads or to totally convert to other sources of energy, it will continue. Walking away ensures deaths of economies and people; staying ensures deaths of economies and people.

samsingh

(17,599 posts)
3. who believes that isis is going to stay confined unless
Tue Sep 23, 2014, 12:41 PM
Sep 2014

they are stopped forceably?

All the innocent lives that are being killed by isis is staggering. The financial costs will continue to go up if nothing is done.

Donald Ian Rankin

(13,598 posts)
6. Me, yes and no respectively.
Tue Sep 23, 2014, 12:46 PM
Sep 2014

I think that ISIS will probably expand somewhat but not much more if the US does not intervene.

Yes, that will result in the deaths of a significant number of innocent people (but a significant number of innocent people will still die even if the US does intervene).

I do not think that the financial cost to the USA of not intervening would be large (although obviously the economic damage to the region will be colossal either way).

samsingh

(17,599 posts)
13. they are not confining them
Tue Sep 23, 2014, 01:32 PM
Sep 2014

and isis is a huge threat to us as al queda was. I think al queda was similarly ignored in afganistan because it was considered a local problem.

postulater

(5,075 posts)
9. I wonder how much the Saudis and Israelis
Tue Sep 23, 2014, 12:54 PM
Sep 2014

are chipping in for our air strikes.

It's their fucking neighborhood.

 

cali

(114,904 posts)
10. Your speculation is kind of pointless because you don't rest it on any facts
Tue Sep 23, 2014, 01:01 PM
Sep 2014

and you totally ignore both recent history and the inevitable "unforeseeable circumstances"- for instance that a sustained bombing campaign will result in more hate for the U.S. and more recruits for ISIS and related groups and greater instabiiity.

jwirr

(39,215 posts)
11. And there you have the real problem. Any action we take against ISIS is their key to recruiting more
Tue Sep 23, 2014, 01:17 PM
Sep 2014

supporters. It is the reason they so publically executed our citizens and why they appoint us to be THE enemy. Especially they are using this with the young kids they are training as soldiers.

GeorgeGist

(25,321 posts)
14. Say what???
Tue Sep 23, 2014, 04:41 PM
Sep 2014
it's certainly not obvious that the US getting involved will not make the likely outcome better.
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