"Battle For The Senate Close And Competitive In Latest Polling"

Battle For The Senate Close And Competitive In Latest Polling

by Ariel Edwards-Levy at the Huffington Post

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/05/senate-polls_n_5935344.html?utm_hp_ref=mostpopular

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The GOP's chance of retaking the Senate ticked down on HuffPost Pollster's Senate forecast, which incorporates all publicly available polling. One reason for the change: the newest surveys push Sen. Kay Hagan (D-N.C.) up to a 61 percent chance of winning, edging North Carolina out of the tossup camp. Hagan's advantage, though sometimes small, has been consistent over the past month. The 13 most recent polls in the state, including those by partisan pollsters, have all shown her ahead by at least 1 percentage point.

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Another reason for the slight shift in GOP fortunes: Michigan has also turned more solidly Democratic, with the forecast now giving Rep. Gary Peters an 88 percent chance of victory.

The HuffPost Pollster forecast still finds five swing states where the leading Senate candidate has less than a 60 percent chance of winning: Kansas, where the independent has an edge; Alaska and Arkansas, where Republicans hold a slight advantage; and Iowa and Colorado, where the races are virtually tied.

In Colorado, the Pollster model gives Sen. Mark Udall (D) a 50 percent chance of holding his seat against Rep. Cory Gardner (R). Sunday's CBS/NYT/YouGov poll is the first since early September to show Udall ahead. Recent Rasmussen and Suffolk/USA Today surveys also found a deadlocked race.




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